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$16 river dilemma

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03-28-2011 , 11:03 AM

penfold

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,279

Villain is random.

Poker Stars, $15 Buy-in (15/30 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

BB: 1,530 (51 bb)
UTG+1: 1,115 (37.2 bb)
UTG+2: 1,440 (48 bb)
Hero (MP1): 1,405 (46.8 bb)
MP2: 1,615 (53.8 bb)
MP3: 1,750 (58.3 bb)
CO: 1,720 (57.3 bb)
BTN: 1,455 (48.5 bb)
SB: 1,470 (49 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with 5

UTG+1 calls 30, UTG+2 folds, Hero calls 30, MP2 raises to 90, 5 folds, UTG+1 calls 60, Hero calls 60

Flop: (315) K

(3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero checks, MP2 checks

Turn: (315) 5

(3 players)
UTG+1 checks, Hero bets 190, MP2 calls 190, UTG+1 folds

River: (695) T

(2 players)
Hero bets 225, MP2 raises to 1,335 and is all-in, Hero folds

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03-28-2011 , 11:17 AM

vookenmeister

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,736

Gross. As played I fold too

I prefer a higher turn bet and then a check/call on the river. C/c river gives villain a chance to bluff and is less risky as u are crushed by heart flush, AQ and set of 10s.

Tough hand

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03-28-2011 , 12:16 PM

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

I bet more on turn aswell. River is fine if you folded. B/f > c/c, coz he basically never bluffs you here but for sure will check back a lot of hands he wouldve called with.

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03-28-2011 , 12:27 PM

vookenmeister

old hand

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 1,736

Actually u might be right about b/f. I was secondguessing my thoughts after typing it. I guess we won't really see a lot of bluffs here since flop was checked (meaning less likely he has missed diamon draw). Can I reclaim my post and agree?

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03-28-2011 , 01:54 PM

sippin_criss

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronny Mahoni

I bet more on turn aswell. River is fine if you folded. B/f > c/c, coz he basically never bluffs you here but for sure will check back a lot of hands he wouldve called with.

agreed. the turn bet seems small but i think it's ok considering the flop checked through.

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03-28-2011 , 03:15 PM

SkinnyStax

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: May 2010 Posts: 3,604

Our river bet just looks so FOS. More on river and turn plz and fold is fine.

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03-28-2011 , 03:17 PM

penfold

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,279

Bigger bets and I'd be committed to that river, hence the whole point of bet-folding.

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03-28-2011 , 03:24 PM

sippin_criss

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 11,773

Quote:

Originally Posted by SkinnyStax

Our river bet just looks so FOS. More on river and turn plz and fold is fine.

You seem to imply that the small size means we could get bluffed, which would rarely happen on a board like this, or vs a river bet in general. Also the way the hand was played so weakly we need to keep the bets around this size for the reason penfold mentioned and also because villains range doesn't appear to be very strong so it's important to maximize value instead of blindly making a huge bet b/c we have a set.

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03-28-2011 , 05:37 PM

frappeboy

adept

Join Date: Jun 2005 Posts: 1,078

The Th is such a bad card, I'd probably just check/call the river. You might be able to induce some bluffs taking this line which might be better than trying to get some value with a small bet. Having said that I believe the line taken in the hand of bet/folding is ok too.

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03-29-2011 , 02:58 AM

#10

zackryan28

old hand

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 1,790

I agree this hand is rough, but am I the only one who is thinking call here?

To me, I would actually think a heart draw would be the flop. no?

I think it's MORE likely that villain was slowplaying AK, KJ, or possibly even K10.It's close, but you're getting like 2 to 1 on a call, so I'm thinking you gotta ship em.

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03-29-2011 , 05:50 AM

#11

Monkey Banana

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 40,103

I'm thinking you are going to be pretty much alone in thinking you should call the river.

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03-29-2011 , 06:20 AM

#12

OMGClayDol

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 11,065

a random might overvalue KT or JT (two pair type hands) but as played i also fold, and b/f def > c/c

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03-29-2011 , 01:52 PM

#13

Vainaces

journeyman

Join Date: Jan 2011 Posts: 232

Looks like a fold. He probably has a flush or AQ.
Its extremly unlikely he has anything like KJ,K10 or AK after checking the flop, and check calling the turn. He would be pushing these hands for value earlier on, (and to protect them.)

If I'm honest this is the kind of spot where I will spew when playing a lot of tables and not be able to give up on a set.
You played it fine though imo, although maybe just the turn bet shouldve been a bit bigger.

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