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$16 QQ starting to hate post flop

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04-12-2011 , 07:23 PM

penfold

banned

Join Date: Nov 2010 Posts: 2,279

Villain was 36/8 65 hands. I'm really starting to screw up my decisions between bet-folding and check-calling lately. This looks like a bet-fold to me?

Poker Stars, $15 Buy-in (10/20 blinds) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 9 Players

Hero (MP1): 1,500 (75 bb)
MP2: 1,390 (69.5 bb)
MP3: 1,440 (72 bb)
CO: 1,080 (54 bb)
BTN: 2,120 (106 bb)
SB: 1,440 (72 bb)
BB: 1,500 (75 bb)
UTG+1: 1,500 (75 bb)
UTG+2: 1,530 (76.5 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP1 with Q

2 folds, Hero raises to 70, 3 folds, BTN calls 70, 2 folds

Flop: (170) Q

(2 players)
Hero bets 100, BTN calls 100

Turn: (370) A

(2 players)
Hero bets 240, BTN calls 240

River: (850) K

(2 players)
Hero

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04-12-2011 , 07:30 PM

nmalos

journeyman

Join Date: Jun 2010 Posts: 262

Raise to 80 pre, bet more on the flop and turn, c/c river

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04-12-2011 , 07:43 PM

ndahlhoff10

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 6,224

375/fold. If I checked river, I'd only call if he bet smallish as he would likely do with two pair.

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04-12-2011 , 07:46 PM

Divus Madrev

stranger

Join Date: Sep 2010 Posts: 7

I, personally, wouldn't be surprised if you'd have the villain beaten here.
I would go for bet/fold, since if he isn't holding a flush there's a big chance, after calling all the way to the river, that he'll call the river as well, giving you value in general. If he did hit the flush or straight, both c/c or bet/fold will cost you, unless he's going to overbet I don't think you're in a position to fold (unless you might've had a better read on him and his tactics, but for a random I think this is the best way to go).

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04-13-2011 , 02:14 AM

oldskool87

adept

Join Date: Feb 2011 Posts: 845

im checking then most likely calling here.. doesnt make much sense to me to bet then fold when ive invested half my stack.. those river blocker bets are far more useful when your deep in mtt or cash i think

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04-13-2011 , 10:58 AM

OMGClayDol

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Apr 2010 Posts: 11,065

turn ok but this flop definitely more.
this looks like clear, clear bet/fold to me. 375 or something is fine.

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04-13-2011 , 11:05 AM

thegenk

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 193

Am I missing something here? We flopped top set against a station, and are worried when he calls down? Sizing on both streets is fine imo, and I'm c/cing the river. I do agree that pre could be larger, but I don't have much experience with the dynamic at t20.

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04-13-2011 , 11:55 AM

UhtredTheUgly

journeyman

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 334

B/f >>>>>>>>>>>>>> c/c

What is a station going to bet exactly?

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04-13-2011 , 12:28 PM

thegenk

centurion

Join Date: Oct 2010 Posts: 193

Obviously some read on post-flop aggressiveness would be useful here, but with stats like that villain could be betting or checking literally any conceivable holding. In my experience, it is extremely difficult to figure out the (il)logic informing the post-flop play of weak players. We have an extremely strong hand, and villain has not previously shown strength. Don't overthink it - if he happens to have a K-high flush, so be it, but I think we're probably ahead here 75% of the time at minimum.

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04-13-2011 , 12:38 PM

#10

siebenacht

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Sep 2007 Posts: 3,610

Bet-folding seems pretty bad to me. How about bet-calling? You really like like
to put more than half of your stack in with a set on a semi-wet board, only to
fold? Much to likely that he shows up with a worse hand, even though he shoves river imo.

Check call is also bad, bc we are missing out value.

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