Does anyone do this? Given his stats i think he is commiting himself to most flops, can i call here and get it in with any peice of the flop?

Poker Stars No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75.00/t150.00 Blinds - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter By DeucesCracked Poker Videos

MP: t1465.00
CO: t2110.00
BTN: t4185.00
SB: t2150.00 14.33 BBs - VPIP: 29, PFR: 20, 3B: 0, AF: Infinity, Hands: 41
Hero (BB): t1260.00 8.40 BBs - VPIP: 17, PFR: 14, 3B: 5, AF: 3.7, Hands: 297828
UTG: t2330.00

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is BB with T Q
4 folds, SB raises to t300, Hero calls t150

Flop: (t600) 2 6 9 (2 players)
SB bets t300.00, Hero folds

If you get any peice of the flop you pretty much have to get it in after SB bets the flop. But I think you got the right idea.

Wait what? I doubt anyone would recommend calling a raise here. I think a shove is fine. You can probably resteal fairly often here since he is stealing fairly wide, and q10 has some equity if he calls.

I was kinda assuming that this wasnt good enough to reshove here, but perhaps you're right. That wasn't really my point.

Change it so i have something that is not good enough to shove, maybe 89 or something, do we ever flat and get it in when we hit, as opposed to folding?

In this spot you have to shove or fold here and most of the time here your hand is ahead of his range depending on his stats although you have only ~40 hands on him and don't see any SB steal % but Q10o should be good here.



If you had 89 you fold, if you had at least like 12-13bb you could flat and then stick it when you hit or have decent chance to do so facing a lead otf

But if i had 12-13bb its much less likely that he will pay me with nothing. In this spot i think i get him in almost 100% of the time when i hit a queen or a ten, and I am only calling 150 to win a big pot when this happens. Of course sometimes i hit and he has a better hand or draws out, or he might not pay me all of the time, but it still seems like this could be profitable?

Haven't really done the maths, but if he was going to get in on any flop then i am calling 150 to win 1410 or something. If I hit the flop 30% of the time that looks kinda good, but then u gotta take into account the times i lose my whole stack.

I'm not neccesarily saying that it is a good play, but interested to know if anyone else has any comments on this, rather than just saying play push or fold.

Its ok if you know how to mix up ur game. This is clearly -EV moce if in this spot u will allways do the same move. You only hit a pair on flop 33% of the time, and assuming hes allways shoving cbet, this will lose you chips on the long run compared to the ones u win 33% of the times.

Here is the math reasoning... :

- 33% of the times you hit the pair and he goes all in, u call. (You win 1260t 33% of the times: ) 33/100 *1260 = 415.8t
- 77% of the times you miss and he goes all in, u fold (he takes 600 chip pot 77% of the times: ) 77/100*600= 462t --- ***NOTE: here you are guessing you are allways --AHEAD-- and win the all in, which shouldnt be 100% of the times. ***---

So this move is 462t-415.8t = 47t chips lost every time you do it and even when we consider we allways win when hit. But as i said, mixing up ur game is good and would be a reasonable spot to do it Hope i helped and that my math isnt wrong!

100 - 33 = ... 67 maybe?

Shouldn't it be 67% of the time i lose 150 = -100

so my ev is +315.8?

Obviously the assumtions made here are pretty unrealistic though...

the calculations are definitely off, for one you aren't losing 600 you are losing 300 and like you said above you have to include the loss of 150 blind, as well as the fact that you are not going to win 100% of the time. Way to many calculations here to figure this out, but I still like flatting here and getting it in on most boards that we connect on.

fold\shove

If you knew someone was min-raise-calling pre with 8.5 BBs and shoving almost every flop, then yes, I would assume there are small a range of hands which would be -EV shoves but +EV flat calls. Depending on villain's opening range you obv may have to get all-in postflop sometimes when you haven't hit a pair, like if you flop a good high hand or a decent draw.

The reason why I assume this is true without doing any math is that villain's strategy would essentially just be giving you more options (while not exploiting you any more than an open shove would) and the option of flatting and making a correct decision postflop decreases all-in confrontations and would be slightly favored by ICM.

But it's sort of strange for there to be someone who is min-raise-calling pre with 8.5 BBs and shoving almost every flop and it would be even stranger to be able to get a read like that. Estimating your equity postflop also tends to be more difficult than estimating the EV of a shove preflop, so that is another reason why we tend to stick to push/fold mode.

Thanks PktOnes. I wasn't really suggesting that I had a read that he would do it 100% of the time, but from what I had seen and from his stats I would have been pretty suprised if he didnt c-bet the flop, and then it is kind of hard for him to fold unless he has real trash.

So I think that the general consensus is that there is not many spots where you are better to flat and get in after you hit as opposed to just shoving preflop...

fwiw do you think this is a shove? Surely we are not gunna have enough fold equity here? Thats what I thought in game, and i didnt like folding to this guys min raise.

Grunch.

Shove or fold PF.

Stats that I would be interested in that I don't see listed are Att. to Steal, and his c-bet percentage.

As played, if he c-bets 100% of the time, then shoving over his c-bet is also an option.

But, with your stack size, I think calling his raise with the intention of playing fit or fold post flop is just throwing chips away.


--klez

this is pretty close but i like shoving here or folding as well just not deep enough to flat unless of course u plan on shoving over his c-bet so fold/shove pre as played shove

I like where your thought process is here. I wouldn't keep yourself to just shove or fold here in these kind of spots. Being too standard will keep you from picking up on some great value when you're facing predictably terrible players.

Given slightly deeper stacks you should mix in some 3 street check/calls imo. Bubble spews ftw

I myself am still unsure where exactly to draw the line for these type of plays between stack sizes & how spewey a villain is, but I think its def a sliding scale & a fun part of the game to think about.

I dont do this. I think I've done ok so far.

ye sorry my calculations were way off.. anyway, as i said before, there is no exact math in sngs, if you can mix your game up it can be decent over the long run if you know how to choose the best spots.. if this is standard thing to do for you then i dont think its gonna be so profitable.

This is far from standard fo me, just seemed ok to try something different in this spot against this guy.

I'd fold here