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 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot  - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot

02-15-2009 , 01:42 AM
Villian is one of these really loose/passive guys like 40/5.. Ran this through SNG wiz and says a push is massively bad which surprised me quite a bit, does the fact that I have little/no FE on later hands make it worth taking a -EV spot??

Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t200/t400 Blinds + t25 - 4 players - View hand 39155
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t3935 M = 5.62
CO: t6490 M = 9.27
BTN: t1765 M = 2.52
Hero (SB): t1310 M = 1.87

Pre Flop: (t700) Hero is SB with J K
CO calls t400, 1 fold, Hero ??
 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot Quote
02-15-2009 , 01:56 AM
Arrrrrr-in baby!

You have to make a move soon and you are going to get a fold most of the time, and be a slight favorite or 55/45 dog the vast majority of the times you get called. I don't think a 40/5 limps JJ+/AK/AQ much if ever. BTN has a lead on you even with the blinds hitting him next. You are nearly out of FE already, may as well use what FE you have left now, IMO. I could be wrong.

Will tinker with wiz and come back to find out how wrong I am!

Edit: Put CO on 25% call and it is a -.5% fold. With CO on 20% call, it has a slight edge on pushing. Not real sure why that is since the extra 5% of calling hands are things we beat or tie. In game, I think I am still saying f***et and shoving for the reasons I already stated.

Edit again: Should BB be on about 10% if we push? Its only -.2% fold if CO is on 25% and BB is 10%. Also, if we assume CO is calling everything here, it is a -1% fold.

Last edited by CastleBravo79; 02-15-2009 at 02:05 AM.
 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot Quote
02-15-2009 , 02:49 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by CastleBravo79
Arrrrrr-in baby!

You have to make a move soon and you are going to get a fold most of the time, and be a slight favorite or 55/45 dog the vast majority of the times you get called. I don't think a 40/5 limps JJ+/AK/AQ much if ever. BTN has a lead on you even with the blinds hitting him next. You are nearly out of FE already, may as well use what FE you have left now, IMO. I could be wrong.

Will tinker with wiz and come back to find out how wrong I am!

Edit: Put CO on 25% call and it is a -.5% fold. With CO on 20% call, it has a slight edge on pushing. Not real sure why that is since the extra 5% of calling hands are things we beat or tie. In game, I think I am still saying f***et and shoving for the reasons I already stated.

Edit again: Should BB be on about 10% if we push? Its only -.2% fold if CO is on 25% and BB is 10%. Also, if we assume CO is calling everything here, it is a -1% fold.
Edit again again: Take all of the wiz stuff with a grain of salt. I can't seem to exclude the top end of the opponents range for some reason. (I assume since it is a trial version.
 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot Quote
02-15-2009 , 03:13 AM
I don't know why you'd be surprised. You wouldn't expect it to tell you to fold to a shove, and in effect that's what you're doing, calling a shove, because you'll have no fold equity. Still, I'd do it. As CastleBravo says, it's not that bad and you're basically fuxxord if you fold.
 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot Quote
02-15-2009 , 05:17 AM
Quote:
You have to make a move soon and you are going to get a fold most of the time
I would be extremely suprised if the villain folded here ever.
 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot Quote
02-15-2009 , 07:26 AM
I agree with sngwiz here.. you're not that desperate here IMO.. The other small stack will face the blinds before you so you never know.. In this situation you can wait instead of making a -EV move..
 - KJo 200/400 Very weird spot Quote

      
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