Pretty good question,im wait fot the postflop play.....

Penfold- Can I ask why we have it filtered for 7-9 players and not by effective stack size?

Ringing a bell three times adds nothing to this thread
Ieatsfish ->. I see where you're going and want to hear more. Perhaps a better approach would be to decide what PFR percentage turns this from a fold to a flat for you? Sounds like we can agree 5 percent PFR (unlikely) in this spot is a fold. What percentage turns this into a call here?

Others -> don't play into the nits game. If they are going to open tight play back even tighter and just open yourself and steal his blinds. Last thing u want to do is call a nit. Also seeing vpip/pfr does not force us to assume he is bad postflop. He could be tight as hell pre then cbet every flop post. Sadly that prob turns a tiny profit at these games. I wouldn't know

Deep enough to flat. 3 bettin is a lil spew and foldin is just bad

Cause every STT player and his dog uses 7-9, 4-6, 2-3h.

Good question. I'm not overly sure of an exact range of hands, i'm not too good at working out precise math. But i'd estimate that something around 10% or more we can flat profitably. The reason i'd like flatting then is that there is a hell of a lot more combinations of unpaired hands as well as a few more underpairs. So with that, we're much happier about playing this postflop, and there are a heap more boards we can be happy about shoving against his c-bet with (not to mention the times he just gives up and check/folds against us, he has to assume we're not going anywhere postflop). Against that super tight range given we can really do nothing but fold with our stack size.

Also, after more than 2.5k hands, we should have a really good idea of how this guy plays. So surely we have some reads on this player as to how he acts postflop. Pretty much any player i have over 1k hands on i will do an in depth analysis on to work out betting patterns/style of play, what his c-bet sizing means etc, so calling pre gives us that little bit of extra info that we wouldn't have when 3betting.

Honestly though, with our stack size, folding can't be a mistake really, but we're probably missing out on a little value, if he's opening wider than premiums.

Fwiw- I use a hybrid of Hem's effective stack size filter and the player's remaining filter to get a far more accurate indication of ranges. Just like in OP's example, in 9 mans it's obviously common to get to shallow stacks with 7-9 players left. So i filter out the early blind level play, getting rid of a ton of hands that really have no reason to be included in this example. Also, we can check on villians raise % from EP to LP to see if he is positionally aware, giving us a better estimation of how much he opens up with position.

This is probably a rare spot where I would flat JJ at t100 just because of stack sizes and bubble factors:
Flat>3 bet/fold>fold imo

How I'd then proceed post flop would depend on my reads of villains aggressiveness, cbet size, what he thinks of your game etc etc

I am actually folding this.



9/5?? Jesus that is supertight! And it is 2.5k hands not just 2 tourneys. With what hands would he open raise?? My guess is something like 99/TT+, AQs+

About preflop shoving, we are a lot of times behind his range and he chooses carefully his hands so how much time do you think we have FE and how much do you think we are ahead?

About just calling and act accordingly, wtf? When A,K,Q hits the board he cbets and we fold, and if it doesnt we might as well be beaten by a higher pair.

So imo its pretty ok to fold.

This can be seen easily by clicking the Spade icon on the stats. However, even vs regs I have thousands of hands on, sample sizes are still way too small to form a conclusion from them. Looking at villain in my HEM now he opens +15bb from MP (which is what the hijack position is categorised as) 6%. So pretty much on par with his 5% hj open on average. As a comparison, my 15+bb open from there is 14%!! So, JJ becomes a snap fold as Wiz has proven. Choose to ignore ICM if you want, I'll see you at the tables

Wiz will only look at 3bet shoving. What we really need to do is create some equity tables, if I have time i'll do some up tommorow To find out if it's really worth while to be picking up the chips from shoving flops if we decide to flat call, and work out how spewy 3bet folding is.

But that's pretty much the information i was after, so this guy is a supernit and JJ would be a fold here in this spot for me as well. You will have to excuse my reluctance to believe he was raising such a tight range but when i see "9/5 over 2.5k hands" It generally looks to me like it isn't filtered so i assume he's opening far wider than he is.

Haven't read all of this but lol never folding here. Some good arguments for r/f and flatting, probably flatting.

Call, fold, fold, fold maybe call imo.

lol so 1 person said fold against like 20 others and its gg? You're being incredibly close minded itt.

Basic counting problems itt.

I'll post my thoughts in order of thinking:

• Villain is a huge nit
• We have a big sample size that seems pretty reliable
• We are a very slight underdog to a 5% range preflop (49.5% vs 50.5%)
• We are 26bb deep effective
• Definitely can't set mine (we don't even have direct odds let alone implied)
• We have very little room for leverage postflop with just 26bb preflop and a SPR postflop of <4:1
• Villain is likely to c/bet a ton of flops, and we will face overcards 58% of the time. We won't like any of those overcards.
• I like MB's question to Glitlr, there really are no flops (except Jxxx) that we like imo.
• We can't float, because SPRs are way too shallow.
• Villain will be able to play perfectly against us because of the above facts, therefore he won't be making mistakes very often. If he isn't making mistakes, we aren't profiting very much.
• Flat? We will have position, but we won't have initiative against this villain.....I don't like that.
• Shove? Nah, he only calls everything that crushes us and folds everything we beat. It's a huge equity spew to shove 26bbs deep.
• 3bet/fold. Hmm, yeah I guess this is the very top of our folding range and the very bottom of our flatting range, so yeah we could perhaps opt to make a small 3b/fold to say 650-700. Villain will play pretty straightforward and just shove his QQ-AA and fold everything else. We keep things simple here, and just play our straightforward 50/50 equity against him preflop and we do it with position and initiative. There is a slight ICM tax involved though, so we aren't truly playing a 50/50 equity move against him.
• 3b/call? No way on earth is this ever going to be profitable. He is 4betting KK+ only.
• I like my stack size here going into the business end of a sng, I don't particularly see any reason to play an extremely marginal spot, when there is going to be plenty of other far more exploitable spots for me to use my stack.
• The best way to exploit a nit is to fold. Yes, we are actually exploiting him here by folding!

So imo:

Fold>3b/fold>call>shove>3b/call

[QUOTE=NJD77;26238257]I'll post my thoughts in order of thinking:

• I like my stack size here going into the business end of a sng, I don't particularly see any reason to play an extremely marginal spot, when there is going to be plenty of other far more exploitable spots for me to use my stack.
• The best way to exploit a nit is to fold. Yes, we are actually exploiting him here by folding!

nice post, agree with pretty much everything u posted, in game i flat a lot as well just because 20 tables, i have jj cantz fold etc...

these last two points are extremely relevant to this situation imo and really make it a fold for me... i cant stress enough how good a spot ragz is in going into this hand to cash, and the fact there just doesnt seem to be enough long term reward to risk playing this hand against an uber nitty chipleader...

listen you idiot: people play STT's VERY poorly. Especially at the 16$ level. Donks will snap call 88,99,1010. Also, donks do stupid stuff like turn ak into a bluff on a 943 board by check raising allin. You honestly dont think he commits chips with a worse hand on 943? Get a damn clue you donk, stop quoting me and dirtying up this thread with your worthless junk.

You people need to understand the idea of chalking hands up to coolers. This hand if you lose, is a cooler. Close the lobby and pop up another STT, and reward yourself with a pat on the back knowing you played the hand optimally.

Flatting is SO BAD! dont do that!

Hope this is an elaborate level.

lol fisheater you're an ass and no doubt just another mediocre reg

i promise u its not josh

Hope you dont think your good

ITT a random gives bad advice and calls players who are much better than himself idiots/donks.

fisheater

no...

but...

I'm so good every time I lose a big pot I chalk it up to a cooler. I never study it because I know I am mistake free

And I hate cats

I enjoyed rereading this thread after dropping it 4 days ago.

3bet/fold = so nasty

fold = not as bad as some are suggesting, but definitely not optimal

call = optimal


One bit of information i'd like to know before playing out the hand
is whether I think villain can raise fold AK or QQ, some 9/5's have a
pure raise calling range.


I think i'm qualified to call here because

I do stuff like this a couple times a day