$16 - AA early facing push on the river - MTT Poker Strategy

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$16 - AA early facing push on the river

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09-24-2009 , 02:00 PM

esofer

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 24

Villain was a complete random, and this was the second hand, so no reads.
What range would you put him on?

Poker Stars $15+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t1480 M = 49.33
CO: t1490 M = 49.67
BTN: t1460 M = 48.67
SB: t1620 M = 54
BB: t1630 M = 54.33
UTG: t1440 M = 48
UTG+1: t1380 M = 46
Hero (UTG+2): t1500 M = 50
MP1: t1500 M = 50

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is UTG+2 with A

2 folds, Hero raises to t80, 4 folds, SB calls t70, 1 fold

Flop: (t180) T

(2 players)
SB bets t20, Hero raises to t160, SB calls t140

Turn: (t500) Q

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets t300, SB calls t300

River: (t1100) 8

(2 players)
SB bets t1080 all in

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09-24-2009 , 02:10 PM

CastleBravo79

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Feb 2009 Posts: 3,626

Meh call. Range = missed FD/SDs, tp, 2p, sets, JJ, and random ****.

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09-24-2009 , 02:13 PM

NoodlesMcintosh

journeyman

Join Date: Nov 2007 Posts: 282

I'd probably call. Haven't played any of the 16's but I'd think you're ahead of a lot of his range

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09-24-2009 , 02:25 PM

SoulAndBone

adept

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 798

I don't know . Kinda tough but i don't know how can we say you're ahead in here.

These bets on the river are usually really strong hands. He's figuring you with maybe an overpair and wants you to go through the rough decision, or he's a complete donk value betting hands that could be beaten.

Since he's a random:

AQ+, 99+, or any other crap.

So, as someone said before, he's probably with a set or TPTK.

But... Maybe the turn bet was not so good?

There's already 500 on the Pot (33% of your stack) so, why not shove here? (maybe that's too much of a lowstakes play to do here, but just suggesting)

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09-24-2009 , 02:31 PM

Deurdy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 10,646

Easy call. He either has 98 or a FD, and on the river he's either bluffing completely or hit a Q somewhere imo. I'm never folding this.

Oh, and bet more on turn, like ~450.

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09-24-2009 , 02:35 PM

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

Raise more on flop, bet more on turn. River is out of question.

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09-24-2009 , 02:38 PM

esofer

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Ronny Mahoni

Raise more on flop, bet more on turn. River is out of question.

Sooo, 80% of the pot on the flop and 60% on the turn is no good? What do you suggest?

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09-24-2009 , 02:40 PM

esofer

newbie

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 24

Quote:

Originally Posted by Deurdy

Easy call. He either has 98 or a FD, and on the river he's either bluffing completely or hit a Q somewhere imo. I'm never folding this.

Oh, and bet more on turn, like ~450.

I think I'd prefer a push to betting 450 on the turn. IMO pushing actually looks weaker than a 450 bet and will probably get paid off by more hands.

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09-24-2009 , 02:46 PM

Deurdy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2008 Posts: 10,646

Quote:

Originally Posted by esofer

I think I'd prefer a push to betting 450 on the turn. IMO pushing actually looks weaker than a 450 bet and will probably get paid off by more hands.

That's very bad for value. He is drawing here such a high% of the time, that you want him to call the turn incorrectly. By shoving they will often fold and you will miss value. But you should definitely charge more on turn.
Same goes for the flop, after you raised your betsize is still smaller than the initial pot, with gives him exactly what he wants: a decent price to see the turn.

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09-24-2009 , 02:47 PM

#10

Ronny Mahoni

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 4,452

Ill make it 190 on flop than I would make it 480 on turn. The thing is these minbets are often draws, and these guys who minbets them usually dont fold them. If he has tp, again he wont fold. If he has something better than you it doesnt matter cause you wont fold. So I try to make betsize as close to pot as possible to charge draws and set up a nice river shove.

edit: meh deurdy was faster

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09-25-2009 , 03:16 AM

#11

IFoldPktOnes

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2006 Posts: 2,374

I call and expect to lose quite often. When it's early I tend to assume I'm playing vs the biggest tard at the table, so you will see some really stupid hands from villain on the river as well.

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09-25-2009 , 06:35 AM

#12

Monkey Banana

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2009 Posts: 40,103

Hang on, don't you fold pocket ones?

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09-25-2009 , 11:41 AM

#13

gonzalo86

old hand

Join Date: Jul 2008 Posts: 1,578

i never knew folding aces was even an option

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09-25-2009 , 01:39 PM

#14

NJD77

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Dec 2007 Posts: 9,542

I aint folding!!

Line and bet sizing is all perfect imo.

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09-25-2009 , 02:53 PM

#15

JohnnyKei

journeyman

Join Date: May 2009 Posts: 245

I think villain must be really crazy/genius if he thinks he can push you out of the pot with a missed draw. Your raises pre/post scream big hand, your bet on turn confirms it.
Villain's bet on flop could mean a draw he wants to see cheaply or a monster looking for action.

You give him lots of action on the flop and turn and the guy is still in there. Either the guy is the biggest fish on earth or he's slow playing.

I don't think the biggest fish on earth would shove it on the river without having you beat..only case it would be if he has KK

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