PokerStars - $13.89+$1.11|300/600 NL (9 max) - Holdem - 5 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 3

CO: 3,809.00
BTN: 5,156.00
SB: 9,020.00
Hero (BB): 4,810.00
UTG: 4,205.00

CO posts ante 50.00, BTN posts ante 50.00, SB posts ante 50.00, Hero posts ante 50.00, UTG posts ante 50.00, SB posts SB 300.00, Hero posts BB 600.00

Pre Flop: (1150.00) Hero has A 9

fold, fold, fold, SB raises to 8,970.00 and is all-in

I put villain at about 60% shove and ICMizer gave me a very tight range of 99+, AJs, AQo. Is that wrong here? We only have 8BBs left, and it's not like the shorter stacks are way shorter than us and have to get it in in the next few hands. We're gonna have to shove in the next couple orbits or lose our FE so should we ignore ICMizer in this spot?

Equilibrium in Sng solver is: SB 100%, BB calls 10% and even then A9o isn't in your range. When blinds are 400/800 your profitable range goes up to 17%.

Instead of looking blindly at numbers I think quality of opponents is very important here. When I'm playing lower limits with a lot of donks on the bubble being a big stack doesn't get you that much money as on higher limits.
Thing that happens is when you are shoving 3 hands in a row, fish puts you on any two and then he'll be happy with Kx to call you.

So, if this is a "reg" bubble, calling wouldn't be that bad cause you can abuse the bubble afterwards (and stack distribution is perfect for that).
If UTG and CO are ICM noobs I would fold this spot and wait for a better spot.
You got "one circle" advantage against UTG and CO so they have to make a move first.

pretty tough bubble spot icm wise here.
against big stack you need real monsters.

even against 100% range its pretty big minus ev :

www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#SLxJ

Hard to justify a call here, maybe if you know that sb is only good player and you can totally pwn table if you win this, and its definite that he is on any two maybe we could consider taking such -ev call.

I think its closer than what ICM says. Calling is massively +chipEV. Even though you may have a -1.5 $edge or whatever, IDK if youre gonna find better spots to put you in higher equity than this. You are posting SB next hand, if you have to fold that as well you have less than 6.5BBs left. + if you win, you are the big stack on the bubble, which ICM is not accounting for, and that can cause a significant distortion of the ICM numbers.

IDK on what basis you think he is shoving 60%, many would shove more in this spot.

In game I think I would call, might be persuaded its a fold though.

You certainly don't need "real monsters" to call here. ATs would do. A9o is just about a call if we swap just 600 chips over to UTG's stack making ourselves 4th in chips instead of 3rd. I never really understood these pretty huge differences in equity for the sake of just ONE big blind. But knowing these things and if villain is going to be pwning every hand then you may aswell take it here. That said, if you're not putting him on atc then he isn't going to be abusing the bubble so meh fold I guess.

Yeah 60% is a conservative range I think... but it wasn't a reg that I was very familiar with(tho it was a reg). The problem with folding here is that after the SB hits us, we'll be in a position where except for the 4.2k stack, everyone we shove into can call us closer to chipEV than we can, which doesnt leave us alot of room to do anything until we blind down to the small stack.

Yeah I agree with you about ICM...It only seems to be calculated with the current hand in mind... for example:

www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#hoEh

www.pokericmcalculator.com/icmizer/#iqIF

In both situations if we lose, we're pretty much out in 4th, but the one where we cover the shover by 500 chips yields a calling range of 29% compared to 16% if we have equal stacks. ICM doesn't take into account that we will have to call ATC in the SB on the next hand and probably lose.

This isn't adding much, but I 100% agree here. Should be a snapfold on a fish bubble.

yeah listen to n0bigdeal, hes the best.

yeh listen to the same opinion expressed only at the 4th occasion.

Listen to penfold as if you do u will find yourself in a situation where you are able to turn rags into riches

Well maybe we have different "real monster" definitions, ATs is clearly a much better hand than A9o. I am not saying call TT+ only.

Its also very rare. If your worst hand in range is ATs its a pretty monster range by my definition.

That makes sense, but couldn't the same argument be made for the opposite case? So say we fold here... and it folds to me in the SB the next hand and I shove ATC on BB and he says "hey I have A5 here.. way ahead of his range" and he calls...that's pretty bad for me. It basically means I'm gonna have to have a really tight shoving and calling range and I could easily find myself blinded down to the short stack and have everyone calling me very wide at that point.

You're correct. This is the weird, and sometimes seemingly counter intuitive strategy of playing 18mans. Depending on the opponents at the table, sometimes the correct strategy is to both call and push tight, and watch your stack fade away.

Your next question might be, "So if we're slowly bleeding chips, how is this increasing your equity?"

The equity comes from the 4 remaining players who will not be pushing and calling tight. Every time 2 of them showdown a hand, both of their tournament EVs decrease, while yours will increase.

You're a gentleman and a scholar.

So if there were 3 regs and 1 fish than you would call here probably? Cos they will push looser, and call tighter, so if you win you can abuse bubble better?

this nobigdeal needs to stop posting, seriously

i mean have you seen his ROI, he must be cheating

The only cheating I do is on my girlfriend...but the last thing she'd ever do is read a poker forum...so it's n0bigdeal if I mention it here

your kinda of a big deal though. Think you should block your sharkscope stats before it becomes public that ur results are not possible and u get banned from pokerstars.