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$13 6m, horrible mw spot for a set

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08-10-2010 , 11:16 AM

Baobhan-Sith

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,279

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em, 13 Tournament, 15/30 Blinds (6 handed) - Poker-Stars Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

UTG (t1470)
MP (t1280)
Hero (CO) (t1425)
Button (t1275)
SB (t2460)
BB (t1090)

Hero's M: 31.67

Preflop: Hero is CO with 6

, 6

1 fold, MP calls t30, Hero calls t30, 2 folds, BB bets t60, MP calls t30, Hero calls t30

Flop: (t195) 7

, 6

, 5

(3 players)
BB bets t330, MP raises to t1170, Hero(t1365) ?

BB is a constant SNG loser (63/38) burning his MTT winnings, MP is unknown, seemingly LP (60/10). Unfortunately no specific reads on both so far except of BB seems to be a super loose, fairly aggressive showdown monkey.

My decision was to snapshove because they can have so many possible combodraws and so many combinations they can block each other's outs with. BB also could well have an overpair due to his line. Now, after reviewing this hand and thinking about MP's range (and considering BB won't ever fold here which MP is probably aware of) I think it might be a close spot; would you agree to shove or would it be better to save my ~45bb and watch one of them getting eliminated/crippled?

Last edited by Baobhan-Sith; 08-10-2010 at 11:34 AM.

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08-10-2010 , 11:52 AM

Vinsinho

centurion

Join Date: Feb 2010 Posts: 165

I deffo shove this, I think there is a million hands you beat and only one to be really feared (77).

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08-10-2010 , 12:08 PM

RexWoo

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 6,587

When a 60/10 raise the flop, he has something znd you have 60 invested only.

I might find a fold in a game full of top losers where I probably can find a less murkier spot but yeah, generally call super fast.

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08-10-2010 , 12:14 PM

supersplitz

adept

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,086

Definitely stick it in here. You can't assume the worst in this spot, even if one of them has 98 and the other has an overpair you are getting the odds to call.

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08-10-2010 , 12:18 PM

fallingmagpie

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2009 Posts: 42

Yeah, I get it in here. Unless it is 77 you're up against, worst case is someone has 5hxh, and even there you've still got 5 outs to the FH.

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08-10-2010 , 12:42 PM

Lomi79

enthusiast

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 68

insta shove/call. BB raising at this spot means an overpair or AK most of the time so folding is not an option here imo.

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08-10-2010 , 03:46 PM

Baobhan-Sith

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,279

Quote:

Originally Posted by RexWoo

When a 60/10 raise the flop, he has something znd you have 60 invested only.

That's exactly what I think. If both were regs (or at least MP was) I'd snap this all day long, but now that I shoved against these donks I somehow worry about having given away my entire edge (note that I also have pos on MP).

Even if I'm ahead and triple up it doesn't mean I'll win the tourney; I can only lose it at this moment. Indeed I've been a 68% fav OTF which leaves a 32% prob to lose. Tbh I didn't expect to be such a "huge" fav during the hand.

Here is what I thought it might look like:

Code:

Board: 7h 6h 5d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hero: 	51.557%  	50.92% 	00.63% 	       1259051 	    15643.00   { 6c6d }
BB: 	12.019%  	10.42% 	01.60% 	        257615 	    39538.00   { TT+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, A8o-A7o }
MP: 	36.425%  	34.83% 	01.60% 	        861029 	    39538.00   { 99-77, 55, 98s, 87s, 76s, 98o, 87o, 76o }

So, still no reason to let go with >40% prob to bust out?

Last edited by Baobhan-Sith; 08-10-2010 at 03:58 PM.

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08-10-2010 , 03:56 PM

WillyBeemen

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2009 Posts: 500

I can never let this go

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08-10-2010 , 04:01 PM

Regret$

burnt out

Join Date: Mar 2010 Posts: 12,124

In short, worrying about busting here is not winning strategy. Get it in and take maneys or ul fire up a new one.

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08-10-2010 , 04:08 PM

#10

supersplitz

adept

Join Date: May 2008 Posts: 1,086

Quote:

Originally Posted by Baobhan-Sith

Code:

Board: 7h 6h 5d
Dead:  

	equity 	win 	tie 	      pots won 	pots tied	
Hero: 	51.557%  	50.92% 	00.63% 	       1259051 	    15643.00   { 6c6d }
BB: 	12.019%  	10.42% 	01.60% 	        257615 	    39538.00   { TT+, AhKh, AhQh, AhJh, AhTh, Ah9h, Ah8h, Ah5h, KhQh, KhJh, A8o-A7o }
MP: 	36.425%  	34.83% 	01.60% 	        861029 	    39538.00   { 99-77, 55, 98s, 87s, 76s, 98o, 87o, 76o }

So, still no reason to let go with >40% prob to bust out?

Dude don't worry about busting out, this is a pretty good spot to get your money in and with the big stack on the bbl you can dominate.

If BB never folds then you need to call 1220 on the flop to win (1220+1030+195) = 2445 which is almost exactly 2:1 so you only need 33% equity here or so.

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08-10-2010 , 08:39 PM

#11

Baobhan-Sith

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 4,279

Ok now I see... according to ICM (icmpoker.com):

1. If I fold and MP wins my Stack is worth $11.31

2. If I fold and BB wins I'm at $11.25

3. If I call and win I'm at $27.61

-> I only need to win 41% to breakeven

Looks pretty clear now. Ty guys.

Results fwiw:

Spoiler:

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