Yeah. I don't think we can fold the flop as played. We must shove here or just call/shove ourselves on the turn.

will update in an hour or so, hh is at home.

It takes you an hour to ride your tricycle home?

This is what I said about folding preflop and getting into really tough postflop situations. I'm always folding preflop, but if I did call, I'm now folding to that bet pretty easily. We're splitting vs AQ which is unlikely because two of the Q's are already out, I don't see villian potting AK here, unless its AKhh and having the Ah makes me feel pretty comfortable that he has JJ-AA, his most likely hand being KK. Just fold to that flop bet, and fold pre next time. imo.

I will say this in areas defense...there are tons of bad spewy villans...there is a pretty good chance that AQ crushes their range...I have seen this as wide at K 10 off and 33...we just need to decide whether we feel this is the case...


In general I think we attribute ranges to villans that we would have ourself for making 3 bets and the average random can be a lot less predictable

i got training wheels now, ya jerk.

so i decide to flat....thinking, he will slow down cause that boards all over me and if he has air itd take masssssive balls to shove the turn. but then.....oh hai king!

Poker Stars $10+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t100/t200 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

MP2: t21415
CO: t27975
BTN: t13195
SB: t13335
BB: t9565
UTG: t4100
UTG+1: t16155
UTG+2: t9380
Hero (MP1): t28390

Pre Flop: Hero is MP1 with Q A
3 folds, Hero raises to t569, 3 folds, SB raises to t2000, 1 fold, Hero calls t1431

Flop: (t4200) Q J 2 (2 players)
SB bets t4200, Hero calls t4200

Turn: (t12600) K (2 players)
SB bets t7135 all in, Hero folds


lesson learned. fold pre. theres no gin flop here for AQ unless its AAA AAQ AQ2 etc.

I'm grunching the entire thread except areaman's turn post so I can be blissfully unaware of the thousands of people who have already said what I want to say about the flop.

You can't flat the flop. SB is pot committed and the turn will only bring excuses to fold to a 60% pot all-in bet. But then, if you want to fold the Qxx flop

In order to call the turn, you'd have to be able to put TT in villain's range, but I think most villains would give up on the flop with that hand.

Can we make an overvague generalization from this hand? How about, "If you will have a difficult decision committing to TPTK in a reraised pot, tend to fold preflop."

you can make all sorts of vague generalizations about this hand.

played poorly on every street imo.

its a fold pre, its a shove on the flop. just horrible, its a trainwreck.

AQ this deep in 3 bet pots aint worth spit.

Out of curiosity...have you been playing your usual frisky game being loose and splashy and agro? Or did you tighten up by here.

rebuy period just ended....i would say i had been playing fairly tight during the rebuy period. i wouldnt say that villian is aware of that however.

meh, i wasnt playing that tight.

you playing tight just ain't right

its funny, thats what i tell your mother!

HIYO!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!111111111111111

zing!

i hate how you say the rebuy period is over its a 1R1A which most ppl took the rebuy right away so it plays like a freezout

You leave her out of this, Dorothy Manchu is a saint

you always so angry?

I'm not disputing this hand is a good fold prf for all of us. But if anyone should play it it's you ... because of your image usually I'm assuming.

The first hour of the 11+1r+1a most definitely does not play like a FO. It may not play like a straight rebuy, but it's pretty nuts. Also, very rarely does more than half my table take the rebuy before they bust.

The K on the doesn't turn make this a shove on the flop. That's being a little results oriented I think. I know it feels really crappy to fold the turn when so committed but it's a good fold since your beat about 90% of the time here.

In fact you actually shouldn't feel too bad about folding to that K on the turn. It's a negative outcome, but a lot of the time it's really a disguised +EV over pushing the flop which value many overlook. If it's a case of JJ+ you saved money and AK you lost money, the K was actually net positive EV for you.

If villain has AK:
He is drawing to 7 outs on the flop 1 time and Kh/Th still leaves you with pleanty of outs. It's worth risking the 15% draw 4% of which gives you the redraw, for opportunities to extract more 85% of the time.

In the cases your beat:
The only equity you lose by not pushing would be a very thin redraw on the river and again you can gain EV when you fold to the danger card

Another benefit of just calling the flop is that a danger card can often work to your advantage slowing villain down and giving you control. Consider AA seing the Th as an example.

So we see that calling gives us much more equity and pushing gets us very little.

on vacation nasty sunburn on my feet...

good post imo

sopoRific,

It's not purely a set mine. You will have position and can do a variety of things depending on the texture of the flop and villian's action. Villian will almost be at a point where he is required to play very straightforward unless he wants to risk a significant portion of his stack, where hero does the the ability to bluff, semi-bluff or potentially misfire a value bet without affecting the relative effectiveness of his stack if that makes sense.
TT-JJ certainly have overpair value some % of the time. You are right though the odds are not as rich as I initially thought so maybe 77-88 get tossed. Just like with the AQ a lot of whether to play 77-88 or not depends on some read of the villian that works in my favor (straightforward/weaktight or overly agg). Readless/TAG etc, I would just fold.

Jarid

Sorry for the sarcasm. When I wrote it I was at the end of a bad beat kind of day and posts with no reads irritate me in general.

The reads I'm looking for obviously includes your own play. Also if he did a double up front and played tight which is not uncommon or did he only single buy-in and play more aggressively and how good was he playing either way. You already meantioned you had been playing tight.

Of course it's most important preflop to know if your behind his range. Against a bad LAG floating with pos is fine. Against a good LAG I probably push. Against a tight player it's an easy fold.

It also gives an important read on the flop. Against a good tight player seeing you as tight, I give the set more credit than anything else since he knows this flop probably hit your range hard and the only AK he thinks he gets much money from is AhKh. He might pot control KK+/AK and bet a little less. If he is weak tight, he might even check AK and bet pot on any made hand fearing the draw. If its a bad LAG than you might discount the set and give more credit to KK+/AK. If it's a good LAG than his whole range is in full play.

For RAs, I always note up front who does a double and who does a single and watch how they play the stacks. For 1R1A, you might see a single buy-in LAG it up a bit but the better ones won't get reckless with the limited rebuys. I also OPR them and stats I look at besides the rating is the ABI which is more important for RA and the finish percentages.

Example: LAGS tend to like the single-buy-in but he may have low ABI of say,$5 combined with a high OPR and a low knockout rate early so he may single-buy-in and play tight.

For what it's worth, I make these exact type of mistakes more often than I would care to admit. You also could have made a good read but with unlucky timing.

that's the f*cking worst thing ever. I find it soooo hard to sleep.

wait til them ****s start itchin, thats the worst. make me a helluva lot crankier then.