i inhale, curse, click the shove button and grab a coffee cup targeting the wall just in case it works out as we suspect
villains calling range (vacuum...) is so superhypersmall that we cant pass that spot.
i disagree with the easy fold camp.we get our shove through, we have a decent chance at pwnaments as added value.

we cant fold here, i give a **** what wiz says, bec usually dude wins 3 40-60s and we bubble

confirmed

If BB villain knows you enough to know that your opening range here with such a micro stack still to act is really narrow, then he is probably calling you super, super tight, and you seem to suggest that SB is very likely to nit it up also. Don't have access to Wiz right now but would be interested to see the numbers if the blinds' ranges are something like JJ+, and then for comparison something like TT/AQs

I can see why so many people want to fold, but this is a $114 where ROIs for most people are barely above 0, so surely we want to be playing every thin edge we can.

Word.

And word.

+1, i'd shove

Same reason it likes A5, you can't make a straight without a 5 or a T

I really doubt it has very much if anything to do with straight potential. I'm sure it's primarily about kickers and overcards.

To all those advocating a fold you seem to be thinking "I'll take the money" rather than thinking what averages the greatest return.

If you shove, sometimes you don't make the money but it does make you more on average. Sometimes you look like a dick and bubble with a big stack - which is embarrassing - but more often you pick up the blinds uncontested which significantly improves your position (or win a massive pot).

With Wiz standard ranges - which are very very loose for this spot, it is a shove. (BTN 80%, SB 20%, BB 27%). There can't be any argument with this, wiz does over estimate the small stack slightly (because it uses ICM not the random walk theory) but it also doesn't take into account the blinds hit you next.

If you fold it's a mistake : fact. If you are concerned about variance and would rather take less money, then you can make an argument for folding.

(EDIT: LOL Wiz does suggest folding A9 as I said earlier!)

Default wiz ranges aren't going to be very useful here neither is pure ICM unless we are only using it to estimate what the actual equities in the various situations as a starting point.

EZ shove given your reads. Keep in mind that shorty is so short he will call with anything reasonable, which mitigates the disaster if you get called by one of the others.

Also as 7castle said the bubble dynamics could change if you get this through. It doesn't take much before you have a pwn-stack over the other two, which is wildly +$EV, although shorty will need to double up for you to do any real owning.

Those calling ranges are wide, but it's also assuming that button comes along 80% when you push when he should be folding most hands. Switch just that one variable to shorty calling with only 20% and it becomes an easy fold.

I agree it's still probably a shove, but it's not the slam dunk you suggest.

I never said it was a slam dunk, nor did I suggest it. A +0.1 ev shove is still a shove.

Yes but there is no way BB is calling 27% or SB 20%, 10% is probably too wide, realistically it's <5%. This makes it a push.

Fold because the one dude has 300 chips let him bust.

has to be a snap fold no?

Admiral I agree with you. I play within bankroll so I'm never looking to take the money. I just want to make the most +ev play at every spot.

I am just out of practice with SNGs and have never really seen such a micro stack ICM spot before. Right as I was about to hit shift+R to shove, I stopped and just folded because I figured a missed shove would be marginal -ev (maybe 0.5% equity or so) but a mistaken shove + call + bubble would be ICMily catastrophic, if that makes sense.

folding here, although its one of those spots which feels like a missed opportunity

interesting thread.

i think you can ship it with your reads on the blinds. but my default here is to fold.

Considering the BB is a reg, he will likely look to abuse you in the next few hands. so picking up this pot to 'keep up' with him would be nice.

but I dont see myself going much wider than this, especially in the Axo hands.

Not sure what all the debate is about...is there something besides the spite call dynamic that would make this anything other than a +ev shove?

i like a shove here with your read on the bb. i might edge towards a nit-fold i i had a few less chips (like 2500ish).