1st game w/ villain. I was going for some pot control on the flop. Good? Now what?

Poker Stars $105+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 7 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Steve23JJ (MP): t1445
Shankar825 (CO): t1045
crazycoach42 (BTN): t1140
Hero (SB): t2855
J-off 8 (BB): t2740
clearster (UTG): t2770
kAy86 (UTG+1): t1505

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is SB with A T
5 folds, Hero raises to t300, J-off 8 calls t200

Flop: (t600) T 7 K (2 players)
Hero checks, J-off 8 bets t300, Hero calls t300

Turn: (t1200) 6 (2 players)
Hero checks, J-off 8 bets t600, Hero?

This isn't good pot control IMO. This is weak, passive play with a fairly strong hand HU. I prefer a lead on the flop. If he plays back I make a decision based on HUD stats. Check/calling gives you absolutely no info, and if you call the turn you can expect to have to make a decision on the river for 1k or more chips. So your pot control plan essentially failed.

ya agree w/ jweez, betting is a much easier way of controlling this pot.

What is the game plan if we lead the flop?

pretty much gonna be done if we meet resistance because we are so deep.

i like a flop lead as well. i doubt he is gonna mess around too much if he missed since you are each so deep.

I would prefer preflop shove to raise/c-bet. You'll end up risking far too much of your stack trying to play postflop with this hand.

Preflop shove with 28 BB deep ?
I'd cbet that flop. BB can be calling with a wide range of hands if he thinks you are trying to steal his blinds.

Unexploitable, imo.

I disagree... I hate the 28BB shove with A10.

You disagree with math? This push is +$EV for any BB range.

Bet 400-450 on the flop. Define your hand. Check calling gives you no information about the strength of your opponent's hand. Betting does. Villain will be folding out alot of pairs and Axs, and calling with his kings and draws (and sometimes raising I suppose).

wait you'll risk more of your stack by shoving 2850 up front than by raise/cbetting for 700ish?

space age math imo

Just ran some ICM calculations and BB should be calling 8.3% of the time and A10 is at the absolute bottom of his calling range. I think we would need a hand that holds up slightly better against V's calling range against our shove to make this viable. Not to mention this play is horrible with 28BB when the bvb battle is part of a 3 way heat for CL.

I would make a standard raise, cbet 350 and fold to a raise. If he flats the flop, I check to him for pot control at that point.

wagering 2850 in a +$EV way vs. 700ish in a questionable $EV way.

When he's folding to a shove 92% of the time, you don't have to perform all that well for the 8% of the time you get called.

Shoving is unexploitable. It's also not especially profitable. Raise-folding or other lines are likely more profitable vs some (many?) players, and less profitable in other cases. I think it is useful to recognize that there's a guaranteed profitable way to play the hand when considering the alternatives though.

lol how is it questionable?

Because you cant just look it up in an ICM prog?

And also just bc it says it's profitable in wiz doesnt mean it actually is profitable when factoring in future edges, which if you dont have future edges with 30bbs then you probably are bad at sngs.

following the bandwagon

bet flop, reasoning described above by numerous posters, namely little john

and shoving 28bb in sb is a terrible play no matter what hand u have unless bubble with other guy having 2 bb or something like that

Jac and Dan:

You don't have to go all-in to find out if your hand is crushed by the BB. By making that standard raise, we know that if he plays back at us that he has us crushed considering ICM calculations since our hand is at the bottom of his playback range. By shoving in this spot, 5% of the time we go broke considering we are 40% to win against his playback range (Use Pokerstove for exact numbers, i cant since im at work right now).

I don't want to be left with 1BB on the button 5% of the time. These are the situations you want to avoid getting yourself into unecesarily at this stage of the tournament. We have a good stack and can start using chips as leverage soon to get ITM.

I was hoping you personally would bring up this point. So allow me to point out that I never said Pushing > Folding or vice-versa. I simply stated that I prefer pushing to raising/cbetting and proceeded to defend that point.

FWIW Dan ive never seen a solid winning reg effectively shove 28BB in a spot like this. The only regs ive ever seen make ridiculous overshoves like this are the ones that are on large downswings (as a result of playing too aggressive in the late-game) and the ones who are barely scraping together a 1-2% ROI. Either way, I think its safe to say that the open shove here is absolutely not optimal. It seems more lazy to me than anything that you prefer to make a shove here than find a more +EV way to play this hand.

I also agree with kleath that factoring in future games would make an extremely significant impact on the ICM results and thus cannot be ignored.

not big fan of open pushing.

open pushing is funny. I mean how many hands can you profitably push with 28bb against 28bb stack? Raise, cb, fold to reraise resistance , some basic oop poker keeping in mind ICM and double stacks

He should be guessing ,not you

Yes you did, when you said it was +$ev vs any BB range

Pushing AA with 28bb is unexploitable and profitable too...

I hate the check/call on the flop. Bet 400, fold to resistance. As played I think you just have to fold on the turn since you just have too many chips left and will likely see a big bet on the river.

hey darin, why the full three times open?

With stack sizes being just under 30 BB's and the situation being BvB I prefer 2.5 times the BB, then a 275-300 Cbet; you lose 525 or 550, instead of 700 chips & it looks just as strong. And I do chose to cbet rather than anything else btw.

Enough with this open pushing garbage. Darin's edge is much bigger than someone who prefers to shove with such deep stacks - because they believe it is +EV. Remember that you are risking so many chips to gain so little, whereas they are plenty better alternatives than to throw your whole pile of chips in preflop.