Villain 1 is unknown, villain 2 is Iamcastleman who is good at MTTs but below average at 9men


Poker Stars $105+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t10/t20 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

UTG+2: t1500
MP1: t1470
MP2: t1720
CO: t1470
BTN: t1470
SB: t1480
Hero (BB): t1500
UTG: t1480
UTG+1: t1410

Pre Flop: (t30) Hero is BB with A A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises to t60, 3 folds, CO calls t60, 2 folds, Hero raises to t200, 1 fold, CO calls t140

Flop: (t470) J 5 8 (2 players)
Hero bets t480, CO raises to t1270 all in, Hero ?

Assuming imcastleman the CO? If so, since you have the A I'd have a hard time putting him on anything other than JJ or 88 here, weighted toward the JJ. If unknown is CO, I can't find a fold.

I hate criticizing preflop raise sizes, but maybe a bit more (250?) to discourage pocket pairs from seeing a flop? Potentially getting 10:1 flopping a set is too much for a lot of people to pass on.

I must be missing something.

luis betsizes here are really really strange

I bet too much on the flop, I know but I had HM hud on my raise bar...

anyway, if I bet 300 can I fold?

It's possible Villain 2 is on a draw: Worst case scenario he has the 9/10 h, in which case he has 15 outs and is 60% approx to win the hand post flop. Costs you 800 to call with 2000 in the pot, so you're easily getting the odds. He could also have AK h, or maybe Q/Q. I'd rate these as more likely than a set, where he might have called your bet.

So, a tough spot, but I'd have called. I'd also agree with Venetian, there's a case for a larger pre-flop raise, but then again you should be happy with one customer post flop.

Cheers

Iggy

+1 .....250-300 PF...... I think I'm finding a fold given the flop action......you only beat a flush draw or an AJ..........I'd want a read here to continue.......

Flop bet makes more sense if unknown is the CO, but yeah, no need to pot against imcastleman...he has a set or he doesn't.

dunno this guy really, but given the information you posted he never has worse than a set here so it's a fold I feel..
But you should raise bigger pre.... that's pretty crucial I think

I fail to see a tough spot here. Maybe raise a little more pre, but given the betting you cant really fold.

He could easily have KK/QQ.

Yeah, sorry I know this is way above my BI level, but I mean can we really fold after putting this much in the pot already with AA on a fairly safe flop?

I agree you'll see a set here often, but I still can't find a fold given the way the hand was played thus far. There are still a few other hands in villain's range that we beat.

I think it's fair to say that a little larger raise being OOP and against two players is probably right. But from Castleman's perspective, is he really ever calling another t140 here to set-mine with 88? I think that is spewing chips. JJ seems reasonable to play the pot in position (from his point of view). I don't think he flatted an unknown opener t60 with QQ or KK. He'd re-pop, no? I can't see how you'd ever be ahead given the action.

I think you need to rethink that read after doing a sharkscope search for Imcastleman. Although his stats of +120k overall are a little misleading, he's still +8k at 9/10max SNGs so don't discredit this guy.

From the action preflop I don't think he ever calls your reraise with 88 so he can have either JJ, QQ, KK or the other two aces in this spot so I get it in no problem.

To all:
What is your HR to call a 3bet of a good reg like Luisgallo? Are you going to call w/ JJ given to the bet size Hero made pf? And what if he had made ~t250?

(I'm asking this in order to clarify my thought process)

I can't imagine him having 88. Range seems like JJ+ to me, and I agree with Suzzer that he can definitely have QQ/KK/AA.

I don't have any notes one way or the other on imcastleman in particular, but call-call pre-flop with JJ seems iffy assuming he knows who hero is (I'd normally expect a fold to the re-raise). Then again, I don't know if hero normally does this with AK/JJ or the like, which would be a factor.

I think his range is QQ/JJ/88/55 at very worst, so I would call.
I think you should re-raise a bit more preflop OOP, even at the risk of losing action. Say 240-260.

Isn't castle a respected and/or good longtime poster here? Name sounds super familiar from my 2005-2006 days.

PF seems fine. What is suppose to be std w/ the caller?
Bet less on the flop. As played you can't fold. I still probably wouldn't fold if you bet less though.

He posts. I've seen him tilt a few times and do some crazy stuff. But otherwise seems like standard 2p2 to me.

Would he flat a 3xBB raise from an unknown UTG Pre with KK/QQ ?

I think the comment about castle not being decent at this format is probably not quite right - hasn't he had huge success at 18-mans, which aren't too different from 9-mans?

Anyway, having played against him a fair bit on $16 18-man, I'm placing greater probability on him having a set. QQ is the only other hand I can put him on as I would have expected a reraise if KK / AA was his holding and even then, QQ shoving all in here if he knows you might not be so likely?

Consequently, if I'm playing with my brain, I can find a fold.

I agree that bet sizing looks strange - the raise to 200 puts 350 in the pot, so pre-flop he's getting 2.5 to 1 with great implied odds. Then as played, on the flop, I think a flop bet of 2/3 flop is more appropriate.

First, I really hate to play huge pots level 1 of a sng. I would raise at least to 300 pf, but many times might just jam it in there and end it right then since we are going to be out of position for the hand. In position I would be more apt to just 5x RR.

On the flop I might check it to them to see what they do. We are more than likely way ahead/way behind type of situation anyway. Reads on the players help, of course.

I think against a good player here you are more than likely beat if they are willing to stack off on this hand. JJs are definitely a raising hand, but not a reraising hand preflop. I think it is less likely that they have 88, but if unknown maybe.

I think we can fold here. We still have a gazillion blinds and there is still lots of hands to be played.

His implied odds are only good for 1300 more chips, so about 12-1 total including immediate. That's generally a bit less than I'd like to get to play for set value in his spot (given that we don't always stack off), though I guess he's much more likely to stack an over-pair in this particular setup when he hits.

Good point, I missed that. Although it's possible unknown might be unknown to Gallo and not castleman. Also I never know what to do with QQ vs. unknowns but maybe I have 100 hands and they're nitty.

I don't get who villain 1 or villain 2 is in this hand, but both aren't regulars, so why do they only have hands that beat us?
Flop is too drawy to fold here imo.