Villain was playing 30/18 over 190 hands. ABI $8 with a -22% ROI over 1200 tourneys. He was playing pretty loose, entering lots of pots and defending his blind pretty light. I didn't have much info on his later street play however. I was playing really solid, and had just been stealing a few blinds in the last half an hour or so with just a few hands going to a flop, that I took down with a Cbet. Thoughts on this line? turn made me want to puke but I went with it anyway...thanks!





[converted_hand][hand_history]Poker Stars, $10 Buy-in (3,500/7,000 blinds, 700 ante) No Limit Hold'em Tournament, 7 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite. View Hand #12506192

BB: 401,249 (57.3 bb)
MP1: 131,415 (18.8 bb)
Hero (MP2): 129,865 (18.6 bb)
MP3: 219,099 (31.3 bb)
CO: 302,288 (43.2 bb)
BTN: 108,264 (15.5 bb)
SB: 201,820 (28.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP2 with A T
MP1 folds, Hero raises to 14,000, 4 folds, BB calls 7,000

Flop: (36,400) J A 7 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets 17,500, BB calls 17,500

Turn: (71,400) K (2 players)
BB bets 126,000, Hero calls 97,665 and is all-in

You both raise pre, and bet an A hi flop. Villain must think there's a pretty darn good chance you have an ace. So if villain is even vaguely sensible (and while that turn donk-shove is evidence villain is not that sensible, on a board that wet, you could imagine someone shoving 2 pr or something to protect it), then I'd expect AT to be beat here every time. If villain is a nut job and might try to shove bluff you off an ace, well then it's a trickier spot. But I'd be folding except to a really bad or really drunk player.

edit - actually I didn't realize just how shortstacked you are. I still think you're beat almost always but I'd have to count outs.

odd line as a bluff, this is two pair a high% of the time.
if he snapjammed turn its prolly a fold.

such an awful spot, yea i have to agree with the above posters that we are beat here a high % of the time. you have to be careful with the hud, just because hes playing 30/18 doesnt mean hes a spew, just hes loose passive and likes to call heaps.

man i would be really hating it but instinctively i know the turn is a fold. if for no other reason than the fact its my last chips (which are your most valuable) and im calling off my tourny life in a marginal spot. id rather shove my last chips than call them off as you have the chance to take down the pot uncontested. calling them means you will be going to show down and even AA can be beat by A2 at a showdown.

with you reads on vilain, I'd 2.5x or jam pre
as played, more on flop, no need to be fancy.
as played on turn, guess it's a fold