Grabbed by Holdem Manager
NL Holdem $600(BB) Replayer
SB ($7,969)
BB ($25,191)
UTG ($7,015)
UTG+1 ($13,539)
UTG+2 ($29,374)
MP1 ($19,329)
Hero ($49,986)
CO ($15,432)
BTN ($6,499)

Dealt to Hero T T

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $1,200, fold, fold, fold, BB calls $600

FLOP ($3,330) 7 6 2

BB checks, Hero bets $1,544, BB raises to $4,635, Hero calls $3,091

TURN ($12,600) 7 6 2 A

BB bets $19,286 (AI), Hero ????????

Hello,

The guy is a reg. running 15/13 w/ 25%(8spots) fold to cbet and 9% 3bet over 225 hands. Call open from BB just 7% but not a big sample. Saw him opening Q5s @ utg once so he may not be that tight with a big stack.

Turn is wtf?

flop looks like a good spot to gii, we have OK-ish equity even against the top of his range. Calling sucks, we hate half the turns (5-9,club) and as you can see we are in a very difficult situation when a blank hits. Folding flop is fairly bad, but by calling we'll have no idea what to do on like over half the turns.

Fold turn

then why call flop if we are gonna fold on blanks?

I ship it on the flop, his range to raise cbet is ****** wide

I don't see any blank on the turn man... However, I tend to change my mind now. What confuses me is the fact that Villain overshove this specific turn. It makes me want to take off all the small ax+fd that I have put in his range. Plus, if he's good reg , he should understand that this A is a bad card for us.
So as a consequence I think he can take this line with more draws than hand made something like 67, Kc*xc, 8s9s. Then we are 43% dog versus this range and 38% if he flopped a set. We need 37% with the pot odds , so having this doubt in mind, I think finally the call is valid.

For flop , I think we are too deep to gii + we have the pos but not against stackoff with some dynamics/reads

I'd call turn as played

I also wanted to this but unsure considering price adn the fact its actually a good card for our range. I dont think he plays oped-enders like that.

check back flop anyway.

wut? why?

also check back otf?

are you on drugs?

well yeah I shouldn`t say "our range" bc I didn`t implied it improved equity of our range but its card which rarely helps his c/r-ing range. And that part of his range which improves on that card probably shouldn`t take such line ott unless he has reads/notes on hero.

Yet it`s not impossible for us to have some Ax, presumably few but its really villain dependent.

Good news is I have assured you`re still alive.

don't see how checking flop can be good,

don't think reg is x/r a worse made hand here for value otf with a high frequency ie: 99,88, 7x, 6x (altho he might decide to merge and turn these hands with some degree of SDV into a bluff w the x/r)

So I think when he x/r he either has stone cold air, semi bluff and of course all his value hands like 2p+.. In saying that technically this a good board to x/r with stone cold air as it should not hit raisers hand alot.

I dont think we can put in the 3rd raise otf, because he folds all his bluffs and continues with everything that beats us.. so flop play = call and re-evaluate ott.

There is 5 legitamite draws out there ott:

1. flush draw
2. 89 for OESD
3. 85 for OESD
4. 54 for OESD
5. combo draws of the above

so in light of the above there is heaps of bad cards for us.. I think very seldom will it go brick/brick. When the A comes it actually isn't too bad for us, only if he has AcXc (flush draw and 1 over) which indeed is a part of his range but one I think we have to take the chance against.

I would proly call the turn jam, if we lose we still have 25k which is still over 40bb at this stage.

Interesting hand. I'll post when I have fewer tables.

OP, you're making really good threads.

I usually do your line and then I'd have super hard time calling ott, even though it doesn't seem like a terrible idea. I'm thinking if we could actually try to solve the hand otf already, but with Tc I'm not sure if that's good or not.

As just proven, my posts are exact opposite to your threads.

For the less educated amongst us could you explain this part please?

I would have assumed we have more Ax in our range, or does that change after just calling the flop re-raise?

If I was facing this line by Villain I would call expecting to see a set most of the time. IMHO the flop re-raise polarises between draws and sets/2pair (maybe complete air), so when the Ace hits and he still shoves I assume he's good (thus why I am trying to understand your comment Ineps). I love to pay people off and keep them honest though, on the off chance V's still drawing.

Nice line by Villain.....and Hero's ain't bad!

Hello,

Watching this hand now, I think its closer to a call on the turn cuz of the card and his ridic sizing?

I think we dont have too many Ax in our range, once we called that flop and if he had a set/two pairs on flop, why would he jam ~2x the pot with his strongest part of his range?

To balance with the times he shoves with a draw or air I guess.

Difficult to know how many people actually bother with balancing ranges at certain limits, which is why I'd be inclined to call the shove. But, I do still find the shove odd after the ace hits if he doesn't have the goods.

In game I'd take the risk knowing you still have 25 bigs behind.

Guess I'm simple, think I like 3b to 8k/c otf.

Stupid spot on turn, I'm more than likely folding.

Flop call was weird, and especially weird given indecisiveness OTT. Like, reasonable I guess to call to induce a turn move, but when you get it you're not sure what to do.

If you're gonna continue OTF (and u should ffs), then raise.

when we call otf we have to realise that it is extremely likely he is going to bet the turn again.

So when we call the flop and a reasonable card for us peels (fd and oesd doesnt get there) we can't fold, because we should have folded on the flop if we were planning to fold to turn cards like that, ducy?

Very interested in more discussion and thoughts on flop plans and turn lines on this hand

Id make it something cute and call on the flop. Id rather flat better pairs and strong draws some percent. I imagine he C/R some spades combos that arnt quite strong enough to call. So call turn and be kinda suprised if its value.

been thinking about this hand over the past few days and have decided the plan and line I think is optimal:

-call flop and re-evaluate turn

-check/call villian down any sizing turn and river as long as its not a club

-If a club falls than check/fold

I think we should expect a positive roi for the above line over the long term here.