So TheLipoFund was sweating his roommate on the FT of an 11/180, and this hand happened:

Poker Stars $11+$1 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t3500/t7000 Blinds + t700 - 3 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

SB: t43245 M = 3.43
BB: t40199 M = 3.19
Hero (BTN): t186556 M = 14.81

Pre Flop: (t12600) Hero is BTN with 7 8
Hero raises to t185856 all in, SB calls t39045 all in, 1 fold

Flop: (t94190) 8 2 K (2 players - 2 are all in)

Turn: (t94190) 2 (2 players - 2 are all in)

River: (t94190) 4 (2 players - 2 are all in)

Final Pot: t94190
SB shows K A (two pair, Kings and Deuces)
Hero shows 7 8 (two pair, Eights and Deuces)
SB wins t94190

Now I'm pretty sure this call is superbad but TLF insisted that it wasn't and since I don't actually own any ICM software (go go gadget intuition), I figured I'd ask to be sure.

(Payout is $235.62 for 3rd, $396.00 for 2nd, $594.00 for 1st)

Ur such an ICM nit def a snap call.

Why though? Because it looks pretty? Would A7s be a call here, because that's pretty close to the same hand against a wide range. I have a hard time believing there's any actual mathematical justification for that call, but like I said, I can't do that simulation myself.

I'm sure ICM is going to say it is a fold, that is what ICM does. You really think you are going to get a better spot?

If you want to fold AK with your last 5bb (after posting) from a sb shove because ICM says so please do.

You have positions wrong. I shoved button, he called from SB. I'm also sympathetic to arguments about ICM not being the end-all be-all but your cEV edge with AK is so marginal that if you ignore ICM in this spot, you might as well ignore it entirely because this is a crystal clear application of the concept (large risk with a marginal advantage and a marginal return- the 3rd place stack is still quite healthy so you don't have a lock on 2nd, and you're still outchipped 3-to-2 by the CL. So what did you really accomplish?)

lol at ICM I'd break my mouse calling

snapcall

im pretty sure thats even ICM wise a super snap call

I don't know if I am reading something wrong, but I can't see how that shouldn't be a call.

If you are shoving 87s, how is AK not a snap call here?

How is AK not a snap call pretty much always vs a single villain we he have an M under 4 and big stack bully is shoving super wide?

AK has the same equity against top 15% as it does against 100%.

Which is it's a 2 to 1 favorite. So...

I thought ICM effect was lessened when short stacks are pretty much equal?

yes would be shocked if icm doesnt make this a really ez call.

I think I'm wrong, PPE increase from doubling is $58 and you're not busting $116 in equity with a $526 pool with 14% of chips in play.

Used 12/180 payouts, but same diff.

Equity if we fold: $343
Equity if we call and win: $424 (+81)
Equity if we call and lose: $235 (-108)

So assuming we are a 60% fave, the ev of calling is .6 x 81 + .4 x -$108 = $48.60 - $43.2 = $5.40

wtf am i missing here

**** icm