$109 6 max-TPTK facing massive over shove - MTT Poker Strategy

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$109 6 max-TPTK facing massive over shove

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08-14-2010 , 08:19 PM

Jamil11

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,919

Guy just got moved to the table not too long before this hand, he obviously seems pretty ******ed, anyways, i have no actual reads on him or stats. Is this an easy fold, or do you put him on something like QT/KQ?

Poker Stars $100+$9 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t75/t150 Blinds - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO: t5460 36.40 BBs
BTN: t6874 45.83 BBs
SB: t3625 24.17 BBs
BB: t9306 62.04 BBs
UTG: t3325 22.17 BBs
Hero (MP): t7425 49.50 BBs

Pre Flop: (t225) Hero is MP with A

1 fold, Hero raises to t350, 3 folds, BB calls t200

Flop: (t775) K

(2 players)
BB bets t150, Hero raises to t550, BB raises to t8956 all in

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08-14-2010 , 09:41 PM

Jamil11

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,919

bump

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08-14-2010 , 09:44 PM

itscml

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,723

I think it's a dry enough board that we might be able to fold here (in theory) ... in practice, I always call and often hate myself.

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08-14-2010 , 09:50 PM

ShortyTheFish

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,941

I'd hate to raise/fold. I doubt he has AA or JJ since either might've raised pre, so all I'm worried about is KJ or 44. Unfortunately, that's 2 hands more than the number I can think of that AK beats. As much as I hate it, fold. There's no reason to commit a healthy stack on one marginal spot anyway.

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08-14-2010 , 10:11 PM

itscml

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Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,723

You've never played a $109 in your life

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08-14-2010 , 10:18 PM

ShortyTheFish

veteran

Join Date: Sep 2009 Posts: 2,941

You've never provided solid poker advice in your life

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08-14-2010 , 10:19 PM

Jamil11

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,919

what lol

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08-15-2010 , 12:11 AM

Jamil11

banned

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 2,919

bump

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08-15-2010 , 04:21 AM

sunnydunerz

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2010 Posts: 6,319

raise for value/fold is fine. this is kj/44 a ton more than you think

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08-15-2010 , 05:19 AM

#10

Shark_Bait

journeyman

Join Date: Aug 2010 Posts: 205

A weak donk bet combined with a 4 bet usually means strength. This tends to mean TPBP or bottom set on this kind of board. Other than KQ I don't see what you can beat.

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08-15-2010 , 05:55 AM

#11

Vemmuu

grinder

Join Date: Nov 2009 Posts: 577

We have 45% against 44, KJs+, KJo+. That doesn't mean we have to call but at least we should consider the possibility of it.

That line looks very strong but if he is good he could do it with a wide range 'cause it looks so strong.

I'm almost calling this. Even we add jacks to his range we get 40% equity and he is bluffing at least 5% of the time.

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08-15-2010 , 06:30 AM

#12

SamuraiPlaya

adept

Join Date: Oct 2008 Posts: 1,125

Quote:

Originally Posted by itscml

I think it's a dry enough board that we might be able to fold here (in theory) ... in practice, I always call and often hate myself.

He probably has QT but I still sigh exhale fold

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08-15-2010 , 07:45 AM

#13

Howtown

old hand

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 1,599

throw it in the muck pile...

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08-15-2010 , 08:42 AM

#14

dereds

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 16,782

I am pretty sure this is a fold and I think that the price we have given the villain with the flop raise is enough to suggest that he will call QT and KQ way more often than he will jam it. I think this is KJ more often than any other hand

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08-15-2010 , 12:31 PM

#15

Mench

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Mar 2006 Posts: 4,038

Put in a real raise on the flop please

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08-15-2010 , 12:42 PM

#16

poloplaya1414

old hand

Join Date: Jun 2009 Posts: 1,972

Fold. Also raise larger on the flop.

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08-15-2010 , 01:34 PM

#17

itscml

veteran

Join Date: Oct 2009 Posts: 2,723

I agree with dereds that this is rarely QT.

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