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(108$) Good odds, bad player (108$) Good odds, bad player

01-17-2008 , 09:31 PM
UTG+1 ($3,573)
UTG+2 ($1,284)
CO ($3,374)
Button ($4,210)
Hero ($3,987)
BB ($1,882)
UTG ($1,690)

ANTES/BLINDS
Hero posts blind ($150), BB posts blind ($300).


PRE-FLOP : Hero has Q J
UTG folds, UTG+1 calls $300, UTG+2 folds, CO calls $300, Button folds, Hero calls $150, BB bets $1,582 and is all-in, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero ?

So were getting very good odds here, and guy has -6k$ profit and -32% roi.
What to do?
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-17-2008 , 09:42 PM
We're getting $2782 in the pot to call off $1582, basically 1.76/1 on our call. He's a fish, so his range is going to be tough to figure, but I'm guessing any ace, any pair is good enough. AA,KK, QQ, JJ, AQ and AJ are the only hands that crush us, and those hands are pretty substantial favorites. On the other hand, we're in a race 60-40 or so versus any other ace, or a 52-48 against any lower pp.

It's tough, but I think we have to fold here. So many hands have us dominated, unless he's totally spewing with J6os or something. In the end, even in the best case scenario we're getting 1.76 to 1 when we're a 1.5/1 underdog or even money. Too close considering all the hands that crush us.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-17-2008 , 09:52 PM
Fold. Unless he's played like a maniac, he's probably losing money because he's too passive, not too aggressive. You're behind too many hands that he could make that play with. Even if he did it with any Ace or King, you're behind.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-17-2008 , 09:57 PM
taking into account the dead money, he would have to be pushing roughly 35% of hands to make it +$ev to call with QJo
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 01:34 AM
I don't think he is pushing quite that wide.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 01:40 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Daleroxxu
taking into account the dead money, he would have to be pushing roughly 35% of hands to make it +$ev to call with QJo
I assume that's using ICM at 0% edge? Add in a standard edge and it makes this a real easy fold vs. any reasonable range. QJo is just not very strong here.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 02:10 AM
lean towards folding as i dont think he is doing this that wide, he knows he "should" get called, i think he is shoving 20%+ here, and that would be -ev call from you.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 02:19 AM
Probably, it's not what you asked, but without a read, guys might trapping me, I'd usually push it for my own in SB here with slightly more than 10BBs and a robust, solid hand and usually a lot of fold equity.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 07:51 AM
Yea i thought about it but i thought QJ is not solid enough although since im mostly relying on FE it doesn't matter too much since if i get called im in trouble most likely.

What would be a good pushing range here against pretty random guys infront?
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 08:32 AM
Fold now, but you jamming preflop when the action got to you would be kinda sexy.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote
01-18-2008 , 10:24 AM
I don't like a push PF.
I fold to the push. Pot odds might be fairly good but they usually aren't the best factor in SNGs.
(108$) Good odds, bad player Quote

      
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