$11 Carbon OPS Main Event

Stack Sizes Hero-440,000
Villain 1-250,000
Villain 2-260,000

Hero is UTG with 10 10 raise to 20,000. 1 fold, Villain 1 calls. Villain 2 turbo ships all-in for 260,000 in about 1/2 a second. Folds around. Hero?

Villain 1 (between me and the all-in) who flatted is a pretty bad player. the chance he flatted with JJ+ is close to 0%. Villain 2 who snapped shipped is a good regular, and a few minutes before he got coolered pretty hard in a 1million chip pot.

If i call here and lose I'll still have 20 BBs, but up until this point the hands I've gone all in with pre have been exactly AA and KK. my thinking in the moment was its about 50/50-flip or i dominate him/i'm dominated. now that i see hes jamming 26 BBs im not too sure that thinking was correct.

call or fold? also, at what point towards the end of a tournament should you be fine with getting in a lot of chips in 50 50 spots (there were about 30-40/1800 at this point)?

EDIT: could a mod please change the title to "1010 facing shove late in tournament"

I'm assuming the blinds are 10/20k.

I feel like his range for shoving on you after you open from UTG given everything you said and his stack size is pretty narrow. He most likely has you crushed. I feel like he's got very few PP's that you beat in his range. Maybe 99 like 50% of the time, and 88 like 30%, or something like that. All his other pocket pairs have you crushed, and otherwise, it's a coin flip. I would fold.

I like to get involved in 50/50 situations anytime from around the bubble on. What impacts my decision is really my stack, like how crippled would I be if I lost. Usually I like to take a few chances to allow myself to get into the final stages with a good stack that allows me to keep playing my game. This is not a situation I would choose, though. I feel like Villain is probably way ahead of us.

Blinds are 5k/10k right and you min clicked it to 20k? What is your image at the table. Have you been opening a decent amount?

Even good regs lose huge pots and get a little steamed up.

Not folding probably. Even if you call and lose you still have a pretty decent stack. Leaving yourself 20bb is completely fine and gives you time to look for more good spots. Might be tougher call off if it was for your tournament life.

Pretty standard squeeze spot for him. He likely is playing a scared AQ,AK given he just crammed. He might be more included to 3 bet induce with AA,KK and maybe QQ. I would think his most likely pairs here are 88-JJ. If he is terrible he might turn up with worse pairs than that.

Call, win a flip and have a massive stack.

I'd call this.

and @ snixT , I don't think villian will always be 3betting with aa/kk/qq imo this late in the tourney they may just very well value shove these hands to get called by hands lesser hands like 10s.

we can't just be narrowing down their range with QQ+, with the effective stacks in play and with villian stacksize they will be happy enough to shove over the top with hands like aq+ maybe even AJs and smaller P/P which i'll be happy enough to flip vs villain

Is this 3-handed?

it's not 3 handed lol.