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100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG 100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG

08-06-2008 , 12:16 AM
Alright this hand took place a few weeks ago in FT's 750K. Blinds were at 2,000/4,000 and then the ante. There were 100 players left. I had 44,000 (average was around 105,000)and was UTG with KQ. I have to move in here right? I ended up moving in and getting called by the button who flipped over AK. Wasn't sure whether or not I played this correctly or not as I know I cant make a standard raise there with only 11BB and limping is also not a smart play. Maybe a limp-shove? Any comments or different ways to play in this spot would be appreciated. Thanks.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 12:19 AM
gobbo's hand rerevisited
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 12:23 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by DontRaiseMeBro
gobbo's hand rerevisited
Sorry, I am not familiar with his hand. You dont need to explain it or anything...maybe just a link or something? Thanks.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 12:24 AM
Need to know more about stacks/players to your left and right, how much you've been stealing, image... With 11BB I can find a fold, but it may not be the wisest decision.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 12:30 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by plen
Need to know more about stacks/players to your left and right, how much you've been stealing, image... With 11BB I can find a fold, but it may not be the wisest decision.
Guy to my left had around 52K-55K but other than that everyone was decent (prob. around 75K-190K) so I was SS at the table. The blinds weren't in a position wherre they were short and would be calling yet the 44K would put a very big dent in their stacks (cant be certain but I would say they both had around 80K or so)I hadn't made too many EP moves but had raised a majority of the time on the button.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 01:01 AM
The fold is the right play. Too many hands behind that will only call with a better hand and you are a shorty. So you may get called relatively light but that light call will be better than KQ but more often than not that call will equate to domination. With 11BBs you can still find a better spot. Now if you were in the Hijack or later definite shove.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 01:01 AM
Fold. I am feeling generous tonight, here's another linky to the pushbot charts http://members.cox.net/wastrel333/Pushbot%20Charts1.pdf.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 02:58 AM
i think i shove is because fine blinds and antes are a very good pick up and the blinds are about to hit your stack the next hand. you could down to 36k or 37k before u know it.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 03:59 AM
Of course its a fold! What are you guys talking about ? Its a clear negative EV play at 10bb from utg.

Days ago we were talking about AQ from that position as being neutral ev (=near 0 return). Imagine KQ now! I assume table of 10. If its 6 things will be better than what i will show next but i still fold it.


Basically its like this; (rough but close to what simulations show anyway)
40% of the time they all fold to you you pick 4000+2000+3000=9k

The other 60% of the time you get called by 1 or 2 or 3. Lets summarize it as one call by a top 7.5% range hand. Doing the 2 and 3 only gets worse in return.

So your equity vs that range is 36.65%. Therefore you put in 44k and get back
0.3665*(44k+44k+9k)=35.5k

So 40% end at 44+9=53k and 60% at 35.5k. Total avg= 0.4*53+0.6*35.5=42.5k

Its a negative move basically. 42.5k<44k

Also from a volatilty perspective it only ~doubles you up (x2.2) 0.6*.3655=22% of the time.


Unlike the AQ case i am not going to say limp or raise with it here. I probably say fold it . From another position things would be better.


This hand is a good hand for desperation mode with very much fat blinds and dead money . It holds decently vs 2-3 opponents (doesnt become very negative EV typically stands as + but must be small stack for it) when you are down to a few blinds . But from a 10bb position its a problem because it attracts as all in the very wrong kind of opponents ie massively dominating hands like AA,KK,QQ,AK,AQ and there is about 25% chance in a table of 10 that at least one will have those. Not to mention all the other pairs like JJ,1010 etc that can still call you . And even any stupid AX is 60-40 vs KQ. If you get called there is really no upside. You just hope its a lower pair basically so that youa re not dominated or its bad. Does anyone ever call such all in with a KJ for example? Fat chance.

750k ha? Nice money! Did you make the payline at least?
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote
08-06-2008 , 04:03 AM
KQo is a pretty clear fold, KQs is a bit closer given full tilts structure at that point, and would depend on the table, but probably still a fold.
100 Left in 750K, Short and UTG Quote

      
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