Okay so I'm new to MTT but I'm not sure about this spot. So there are 18 players left out of 46 and top 5 cash. I'm the second biggest stack at the table with the biggest stack 2 seats to my right. I have 75k with the BS covering me by 2k. I'm in the sb and the bb has 11.5k. The blinds are at 500/1k with a 100ante. Everyone folds except the BS. He limps I limp with 10 8d's and the bb chks. I just moved tables and haven't established a table image. The flop comes Jd 10c 9d. I lead out 5k bb shoves and BS raises 10k. I really didn't want to play a big pot but I shoved. He called for the side pot. BB has 4 3d's and BS has J 9o. Now I'm behind but my outs I think are 7d's 3 7's 3 Q's and 2 10's so 15 outs going to the turn so I'm a statistical favorite at 60%. Turns a blank A and rivers a 7od. I won the pot and the chip lead. Ended up cashing second b/c if it. Question is do you make the shove on the flop turn or just flat call?

Shove you have a pair / fd / straight draw. He might fold Jx or an overpair here if you shove. If you call he hates every turn / riv that hits you and can prolly find a fold.

He limped pre = he has overpairs a very minimal % of the time. I do agree that we have way too much equity to fold but I'm not sure if overjamming here. I've worked out what I believe to be his calling range in this spot when we jam:

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 47.758% 45.73% 02.02% 24902 1102.50 { Td8d }
Hand 1: 52.242% 50.22% 02.02% 27343 1102.50 { Ad7d, Ad6d, Ah5h, Ad4d, Ad3d, Ad2d, KQs, Q8s, J9s+, T9s, KQo, Q8o, J9o+, T9o }


Of course like I said we have way too much equity to fold, and I don't think we can flat here because most of the hands that we are going to keep in if we flat his 3bet are still beating us and we don't want to keep those hands in in case the turn bricks.

Question is if the overjam is better than the 4b/call. If we 4b small here he might be calling sometimes (because lolliveplayers) with hands that want to see a turn but will fold if it bricks off but we still get more value when he does flat then fold turn (i.e. QJ combos/98 combos/QT combos/J8 combos.) Problem is that when these hands do improve OTT they are calling when we jam. There are 11 cards we are afraid of when we take this line OTT (2 9's, 3 7's, 3 K's, 2 J's, 1 T) while any Diamond of those cards will get him to call which adds some implied odds for us.

Now assuming that he flats these draws, we also have to assume that he flats flush draws that he obviously has in his range as well. He is probably folding turn if it is not a diamond which is about break-even, maybe a little -EV for us since he doesn't have ALL of the bigger flush combos (AdKd, AdQd, etc) since he limped pre.

So in the case that he has smaller flush draws we lose value by not getting AI OTF. But given his range of pair+SD hands that he 3b/calls with then folds to a shove OTT when it bricks off (plus the times he calls when a diamond comes that also makes his hand), I believe a 4b/call in this spot is better than overjamming when we are this deep.

Also, 4b/calling gives him a chance to spazz jam with pair+SD hands a small % of the time that he isn't calling a jam with.

^^^^ did this in class and didn't have time to proofread but I do realize that I made the mistake of not adding small FDs into his calling range for the jam when I said later in the response that we lose value by not getting AI OTF vs small FDs. That only increases our equity vs his range of calling our AI but at the same time it's not 100% certain that he raises small FDs.