Poker Stars $10.00+$0.40 No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds + t10 - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Hero (BTN): t2385 M = 11.36
SB: t3660 M = 17.43
BB: t3725 M = 17.74
UTG: t2300 M = 10.95
MP: t1515 M = 7.21
CO: t1415 M = 6.74

Pre Flop: (t210) Hero is BTN with K A
3 folds, Hero raises to t300, SB raises to t3650 all in, 1 fold, Hero ???

With out any reads on the villain this is an easy fold. You still will have good equity and the two shorter stacks will be hitting the blinds before you every time.

k. i did think it was a fold but I dunno, just hate giving up hands in those spots where i'm good a lot

I understand. I file this under the folds that I hate also. I guess it should be viewed like this. We are raising because we assume that they will not be calling us lightly. And then if they are shoving over us we must be either flipping or dominating? Maybe there is a chance that we are a 60%. One can be really good for you but not the other two. Do you need to risk it? I say no! Fold and fight a better spot.

It may very well be that our hand is good here v his hand. But that's not important.

I think this hand is an absolutely superb illustration of why calling needs to be tight in DoNs.

What is important is the equity we would expect to have after we make our decision, not the chips. Our best hope is if we are strongly dominating his hand. So for the sake of argument give him K2; we have both suits covered for the flushes, the best possible situation for our AK if we go to showdown.

He's already all in, so we can't make him fold, so if we call here and go to a showdown we are going to be eliminated about 21.5% of the time.

i.e. the moment we call our chance to finish ITM will be ~77% (assuming a double up makes us ~98% to cash). But if we fold and move on to the next hand our chance of ITM will be ~83%.

So even in the absolute best case situation it's still a fold, and that's with two exact cards. Any other hand gives him a better chance of winning the all in showdown, and so makes our fold even more mandatory.

Therefore he could turn his hand face up before we decide and we should still be folding.

this is a really basic spot. KK is a fold here...

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If you saw it before I edited it, please to be ignoring the stupid comment I made here

Can I ask how you calculated those %s?

you can google ICM calculator and use an online ICM calculator, or use SNGWiz.

Sure.


If I can make a case for folding against a best case scenario, then all other hands are folds as well.

AKvK2 with both suits covered is the *absolute* best case scenario for our AK

very simple through pokerstove - 78.5% win at showdown

Therefore 100-78.5 = 21.5% lose at showdown

If we call and win we're still not certain to cash, only very, very likely (ITM ~98%)
If we call and lose than we're out because villain has us covered (ITM 0%)

Therefore the instant we call our ITM becomes

(prob win showdown * prob ITM with win) + (prob lose showdown * prob ITM with lose)

(78.5*98) + (21.5*0) = ~77% ITM if we call.


Using any ICM calculator you can find our ITM if we fold here is ~83% (plenty of these to choose from if you google it). As blinds are still relatively low (we are only at BB100, ie average stack is 25BB deep), ICM is relatively accurate assuming average skill level, because proximity to paying blinds is not significant. If we believe we have an edge over the field because of our superior bubble skills then we are >83%.

~83% > ~77% therefore ITM(fold) > ITM(call)

Therefore fold the best case scenario.

If we fold best case scenario then we fold everything else.

So we are only calling with AA correct?

Let's assume we have the 2nd best possible hand here, KK. Let's also assume SB won't shove AA here, for sake of argument let's say he would pot 3bet AA to ~1100, so we can take that out of his range.

So if his range is ATC except AA then we have our is the best possible scenario; the only hand he isn't shoving is the only one which crushes us. Against that range we are only 82.7% to win a showdown.

Going to showdown gives us
82.7% * 98% = ~81% ITM(call)

It's a marginal fold, but nevertheless a fold, even if he shoves ATC except AA, because as we already know, ITM(fold) is ~83%

In real life a more likely range for SB here might be KK-88/AT+/KQs, again taking out the huge overshove with AA. Against this we are a pathetic 74% to win a showdown.

Going to showdown gives us

74% * 98% = ~72.5% ITM(call)

fwiw, the only one specific hand from this range which we should call is if we *know* he has KQs, which is ITM(call) = ~84.5%. Even this is only marginally a call. QQ-88 are all only ITM(call) = ~79%. Ax is only ITM(call) = ~70%

This makes KK a very clear fold. If the second best hand is a huge fold then all weaker hands should be an even clearer fold.

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Now let's run AA against our realistic range KK-88/AT+/KQs. We are 85.7% to win a showdown.

85.7% * 98% = ~84% ITM(call)

This means AA is actually only marginally a call, and that only if we subscribe to one of the key assumptions of ICM, that is all players are of equal skill. If we actually believe that we are considerably better than the other five players we are probably better than the ~83% ITM(fold) value from pure ICM, some might argue this may even make AA a fold if you think you're super perfect at bubble play.

Though personally I would still call AA here every time.

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Hopefully this demonstrates how important it is to be considering ALL other stack sizes when making a decision, not just the stack size of the villain who is raising.

The more chips we take from shortstacks, or the more chips we already have, the more decisions tend towards "Fold". The more chips shortstacks get given, or the fewer chips we have, the closer these decisions tend towards "Call".

In summary, AA is the only profitable call here, everything else is losing money.

Thank you kindly for the analysis Trousers.

I would also call w AA every time with these stack sizes.

great post. I would have called KK+ here so i just learned something.

Thanks. I also learned, but only as I was working through it

unhh..would it be wrong to open push?