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<img +r: top two pair on four-straight river board <img +r: top two pair on four-straight river board

07-19-2009 , 05:00 PM
The rebuy period just ended. V was running 41/7/1.1 over 84 hands. What do you think about my bet sizing on the flop and turn? I wanted to set up a river shove. Is this a fold on the river after the Q?

Full Tilt Poker Daily Dollar Rebuy No Limit Hold'em Tournament - t50/t100 Blinds - 9 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

BB: t8515 M = 56.77
UTG: t3520 M = 23.47
UTG+1: t8620 M = 57.47
UTG+2: t8160 M = 54.40
MP1: t7142 M = 47.61
Hero (MP2): t11690 M = 77.93
CO: t6568 M = 43.79
BTN: t6755 M = 45.03
SB: t5740 M = 38.27

Pre Flop: (t150) Hero is MP2 with A K
2 folds, UTG+2 calls t100, MP1 calls t100, Hero raises to t500, 4 folds, UTG+2 calls t400, 1 fold

Flop: (t1250) J A K (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t700, UTG+2 calls t700

Turn: (t2650) 8 (2 players)
UTG+2 checks, Hero bets t2000, UTG+2 calls t2000

River: (t6650) Q (2 players)
UTG+2 bets t4960 all in, Hero ?
<img +r: top two pair on four-straight river board Quote
07-20-2009 , 02:23 AM
While playing I couldn't really imagine that V held a T, but on the other hand no hand besides Tx makes sense when V shoves the river. Thoughts?
<img +r: top two pair on four-straight river board Quote
07-20-2009 , 02:44 AM
As played that's pretty gross, and you're probably behind, so folding is probably advisable but pretty sickening. Overall I like the way you played it because you sized your bets to potentially get AI by the River if the board cooperated. Unfortunately the board did not cooperate, and I have a hard time believing you're good more than 30% of the time here to justify a call.

I suppose a weaker 2pair that got there on the River or a set is playing this way maybe, most of the time it was a completed combo draw that is firing for value. I think what makes this an easier fold was that there were no possible busted FD's out there that Villain is repping w/ his line.

My assessment of how Villain is playing their weaker made hands by the River may be completely off however = my analysis is potentially way off.
<img +r: top two pair on four-straight river board Quote

      
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