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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Russian Invasion of Ukraine

05-06-2024 , 10:00 PM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russian motorcycle and pallet used as a sidecar to transport troops during an assault
2. GRAPHIC Russian boat hits mine
3. Russian camo mortar team
4. HIMARS strike
5. Turtle tank
6. Ukrainian quadbike used for evacs and supplies



Spoiler:














RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1.Reuters article. "Gazprom plunges to first annual loss in 20 years as trade with Europe hit" ($7 billion loss)
2. ft article "Russian finance flows slump after US targets Vladimir Putin’s war machine"

Quote:
“It’s getting harder and harder every month. One month it is dollars, the next month it is euros; within six months you basically won’t be able to do anything. The logical endpoint of this is turning Russia into Iran,” said a senior Russian investor, referring to strict financial sanctions against Tehran.

The US executive order is designed to target banks in countries that recorded sharp rises in trade with Russia after the west imposed sanctions following Moscow’s full-scale invasion of Ukraine more than two years ago.
3. Bloomberg article "Russians Who Fled Abroad Return in Boost for Putin’s War Economy"







RECRUITMENT

1. UK MOD on Russia's average daily losses
2. GOOD READ BBC article "Ukraine War: 'If we go home, a lot of inexperienced soldiers will die'"
3. UK MOD on Russia recruiting in occupied territories


Spoiler:




https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68932127








HYBRID WARFARE

GOOD READ ft article "Russia plotting sabotage across Europe, intelligence agencies warn"


https://www.ft.com/content/c88509f9-...c-9b2bdd3c3dd3
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-09-2024 , 06:03 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Inside a Ukrainian command bunker
2. Russian ATV under attack by drone and artillery
3. Barn tank


Spoiler:











RECRUITMENT

1. Ukraine signs bill to mobilize convicts


Spoiler:






1. Oryx documents 3000 visually confirmed Russian tanks lost
2. Russian AFV losses this year almost twice as high than this time last year



Spoiler:







MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. Ukraine's domestic cruise missile


Spoiler:






MILITARY AID

1. Reuters article "Exclusive: Ukraine examines N.Korean missile debris amid fears of Moscow-Pyongyang axis"

Quote:
"About half of the North Korean missiles lost their programmed trajectories and exploded in the air; in such cases the debris was not recovered," Kostin's office said in written answers to Reuters' questions.
2. Euronews article "EU Policy. Brussels agrees to send €3bn from frozen Russian assets to aid Ukraine"

https://www.reuters.com/world/ukrain...is-2024-05-07/
https://www.euronews.com/my-europe/2...to-aid-ukraine




RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Bloomberg article "Russia’s War Economy Starves Crucial Oil Industry of Manpower"
2. Foreign Affairs article "Why Ukraine Should Keep Striking Russian Oil Refineries"

Spoiler:


https://www.bloomberg.com/news/artic...ce=reddit_wall









SBU claims to have foiled a Russian plot to assassinate Zelenskyy
Spoiler:










1. Georgian beat up by thugs
2. Article on some of the Georgians beaten by thugs
3. Thread on harassment towards Georgian protestors


Spoiler:


https://civil.ge/archives/604676

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-10-2024 , 06:16 AM
Quote:
Ukrainian MoD

The Armed Forces of Ukraine defend our positions in the Kharkiv region

During this day, the enemy carried out airstrikes in the direction of Vovchansk using guided aerial bombs (FAB).

With the beginning of the night, the Russian occupiers increased the fire pressure on the front edge of our defense with the support of artillery.

At approximately 5 am, there was an attempt by the enemy to break through our defense line under the cover of armored vehicles.

As of now, these attacks have been repulsed, battles of varying intensity continue.

To strengthen the defense on this part of the front, reserve units have been sent. The Armed Forces of Ukraine continue to hold back the enemy's offensive.

Thank you to every soldier, sergeant and officer who displayed the necessary fortitude and bravery to defend our positions.
That village is in Kharkiv, bordering Russia. If Ukraine is sending reserves then it's likely a pretty significant threat, and could be the start of a major Kharkiv offensive. Really difficult to tell.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-10-2024 , 12:35 PM
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-11-2024 , 02:02 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Drone attack 1300km from Ukraine
2. Video of the refinery burning

Spoiler:









MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Map of Russian advances
2. UK MOD on frequency of attacks on Chasiv Yar
3. Tatarigami on Kharkiv offensive
4. Rob Lee on Tatarigami's assessment of Kharkiv
5. Map showing the focus of the attacks


Spoiler:











RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Map showing where Russia is firing missiles from

Spoiler:








RECRUITMENT

Reuters article "Four arrested for duping young Indian men into fighting for Russia in Ukraine"

https://www.reuters.com/world/india/...ne-2024-05-08/





MILITARY AID

1. Emergency clause to authorize sale of 3 HIMARS (one of the HIMARS given to Ukraine was visually confirmed to have been destroyed, lots of speculation on why the other two are being given)
2. Contents of next aid package
3. Germany buying HIMARS to send to Ukraine

Spoiler:





Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-11-2024 , 12:10 PM
Germans have always loved war!
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-12-2024 , 07:13 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Drone attempts to hit a turtle tank

Spoiler:






1. Maria Avdeeva on Russian advances
2. Potential goals of Kharkiv offensive
3. Videos from one of the border towns
4. Supposedly Russian air defense hit a missile which then hit this building in Belgorod


Spoiler:











GEORGIA

1. Georgian protests
2. Methods being used to attempt to repress the protestors
3. Protestors being attacked by police
4. Aerial view of protests

Spoiler:





Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-12-2024 , 03:03 PM
Shoigu replaced


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-14-2024 , 08:30 AM
MAJOR OFFENSIVES

1. GREAT READ Best analysis of Kharkiv so far
2. GREAT READ NYT article "Facing Russian Advance, a Top Ukrainian General Paints a Bleak Picture"
3. Russian advances slow after hitting fortifications


Quote:
So Kharkiv offensive is a double trap :

If Ukraine divert too much forces from Donbass, Russian summer offensive will breakthrough.

If Ukraine does not defend Kharkiv direction, Russian army will advance and capture large portion of terrain, even threatening Kupiansk.

Spoiler:



https://www.nytimes.com/article/russ...e-kharkiv.html








GEORGIA

CNN article "Georgia passes controversial ‘foreign agents’ bill despite widespread opposition"


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/05/14/e...ntl/index.html
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-14-2024 , 09:45 PM
GREAT READ WOTR episode "RUSSIA’S KHARKIV OFFENSIVE BEGINS" with summary

Spoiler:

https://warontherocks.com/episode/th...ensive-begins/




Overview

Russian forces have made it 5km or more inland, taken several villages.

This was a heavily anticipated offensive.

Kofman believes the purpose of this is to draw units to Kharkiv in order to enable the primary Russian advances in Chasiv Yar and beyond Avdiivka. The primary goal is still to take Donetsk.

There is still considerable risk for Kharkiv. Even though Russia doesn't appear to have the forces to take Kharkiv, Russia does not have to advance far in order to bring artillery close enough to force evacuation from Ukraine's second largest city which would be awful for Ukraine's economy.

Forces have already been shifted off the line to go defend Kharkiv.

The attack itself has mostly been infantry with very little mechanized support. Most of the forces are in reserve.

The border was not the defensive line. It was already a grey zone covered by drones and artillery, it was not possible to create and defend positions there. We do not know Ukraine's ability to defend their defensive line however.

It's unlikely Kharkiv will see a major breakthrough, but if Russia managed one they would try to exploit it.

This offensive will play out over the course of a few weeks. We will likely see complementary pushes in Chasiv Yar and west of Avdiivka soon.

Russia military understands Ukraine has a manpower issue which will not be resolved for months.





First Kharkiv offensive

First offensive consisted of a large artillery barrage followed by a peace time force which was expecting to isolate and blockade cities and that the Ukrainians would quickly surrender.

Some national guard units attempted to blockade Kharkiv followed by Spetsnaz that went in and suffered a significant defeat from unexpected resistance. This offensive is one of the defeats that highlights the lack of planning and poor intel regarding Russia's initial invasion. Clearly Russia thought the Ukrainian military would not be a major threat, and Russia would mostly be dealing with protestors and riots after the government collapsed.

By Spring of 2022 Russia was stalled and unable to complete their plan to take Donetsk by first capturing Kharkiv and Mariupol since resistance was so strong. They have stayed consistent with this strategy though: trying to break through to the main logistics hubs in Kherson such as Pokrovsk.





Shoigu

"Shoigu was dismissed by virtue of promotion which is a fairly common form of dismissal in Russia." In practice this is a demotion.

It was long overdue. Shoigu was incompetent and stole way too much (the issue here isn't that he was corrupt, that's expected, but specifically that he stole too much). Shoigu has been there forever and people wanted him to go. Belousov is likely going to be far more competent.

The Russian army was a "halfway house" between a modern army and a Soviet army. Shoigu and Gerasimov thought the army wasn't soviet enough and the best way to fix it was to make a "cosplay" Soviet military, but Russia does not have the manpower, resources, or defense industrial base. Belousov is going to be better at things like defense procurement and does not need to run the actual war. Kofman believes Gerasimov will be removed by Belousov.

This change shows that Putin recognizes that this is going to be a long war. The state will be spending money differently and funneling it to the defense industry.

Russian anecdote/joke being said on telegram: "If Shoigu was in charge of the central bank and the head of central bank was the head of the army then the Russian people would be eating rats but the Russian army would be approaching Berlin." (Purpose is to show how competent the head of the central bank is compared to Shoigu's incompetence.)






Next 6 to 12 months

Doesn't expect a lot to change. Russia will likely retain strategic initiative through 2024. Ukraine is in a state of great vulnerability right now. The supplemental is not a magic wand and there are a number of issues still.

Ukraine needs to stabilize the front line. They need to fix the manpower issues and establish fortifications.

Best case scenario: Ukraine holds Russia to small gains and Russia's relative advantage will decline as they are unlikely to be able to spend as much or have as much equipment in 2025. Even if Ukraine cannot form an offensive in 2025, they could at least threaten one and see how that changes things.

Worst case scenario: There is a collapse on one or several parts of the front line. Reserves are stretched thin. Russian military can break through to one or several of the transit hubs, collapsing the defense of Donetsk. (Kofman doesn't think the loss of Donetsk is a gigantic deal, although clearly still awful.) Ukraine is then consistently pressured so that it cannot maintain defensive lines.

Very little suggests that Russia can accomplish this because they are unlikely to achieve a strategic breakthrough. It seems that Russia will likely be pushing Ukraine out of defensive positions, but at high cost and unable to exploit fully, resulting in Ukraine retreating back to the next defensive position and no breakthrough.






Questions
State of Russian reserves


Russia is not fully committed, they have reserves still. Kofman believes the regeneration rate is not such that they can make a huge force though. Russia's ability to employ the forces is likely not good.

Does Ukraine have the reserves to hold Kharkiv without significant weakening the front line?

No one knows. Manpower is a problem, and will take months to solve. Really need to just see how things play out.


Why did Russia choose Kharkiv instead of strengthening Donbas.

Russia has additional forces for other sectors. The pattern has been to conduct multiple offenses at the same time with several fixing efforts and a main effort. Kharkiv is designed to really strain Ukrainian forces.





BATTLE CLIPS

GRAPHIC Ukrainian vs 4 Russian in very close trench battle

Spoiler:








MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS


1. Tatarigami on Kharkiv

Spoiler:







GEORGIA

Protestors and police

Spoiler:










BELOUSOV / SHOIGU

ft article "Who is Andrei Belousov, Russia’s new defence minister?"


Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-15-2024 , 08:43 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Zeno
Germans have always loved war!
I'm surprised they haven't gotten a little tired of it.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-16-2024 , 05:45 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russia shells Kharkiv from side of the road in Belgorod, where Ukraine cannot strike back with foreign weapons
2. Drone hit by MANPAD
3. Ukrainians take Russian controlled house, apply tourniquet to POW


Spoiler:







MILITARY AID

1. Ukraine presses Biden to lift ban on using US weapons to strike Russia
2. Unclear but potentially big shift on the issue by Blinken


Spoiler:








UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Destroyed radar system in Crimea
2. Thread on the strike

Spoiler:










MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Village near Kharkiv

Spoiler:








BELOSOUV

Thread on his appointment

Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-17-2024 , 05:41 AM
GREAT READ RUSI article "In Ukraine, Russia is Beginning to Compound Advantages"
GREAT READ NYT article "Russia Has Opened Up a New Front. What Comes Next?"



https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...und-advantages
https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/16/o...e-kharkiv.html



UKRAINE'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Losses from last ATACMS strike in Crimea
2. Tatarigami on the strike
3. Drones striking oil refinery

Spoiler:









MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Map of Kharkiv and analysis

Spoiler:








BATTLE CLIPS

1. Fighting in outskirts of Kharkiv

Spoiler:








MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. Denmark's latest package, including F-16s
2. France producing 4000 155mm shells a month (originally predicted to hit this at end of 2024)
3. GMLRS ER contract
4. USA clarifies no change on policy on Ukraine striking inside Russia with foreign aid



Spoiler:













RUSSIA'S STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Stats on intercepted missiles
2. NYT article "Facing an Endless Barrage, Ukraine’s Air Defenses Are Withering"


Spoiler:




https://www.nytimes.com/interactive/...-defenses.html
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-20-2024 , 08:58 PM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. GRAPHIC Mines and drones hit Russia assault
2. Ukrainian airstrike against hospital where Russians were gathering in abandoned town near Kharkiv
3. Krynky airstrike

Spoiler:


https://x.com/AndrewPerpetua/status/1791797160259813882









RUSSIAN SANCTIONS

1. Greece's role in helping Russia evade sanctions
2. Politico article "How Turkey became Putin’s ‘pit stop’ for selling camouflaged fuel to the EU"


Spoiler:








MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Speculation regarding Kharkiv
2. Putin blames Ukraine for the Kharkiv front, says he is not trying to capture Kharkiv
3. Tatarigami overview of all major fronts
4. The day the Kharkiv offensive began Ukraine lost all video feeds

Spoiler:










RECRUITMENT

1. 5000 Ukrainian convicts agree to be conscripted

Spoiler:







UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Hits on an oil refinery

Spoiler:







MILITARY AID

1. Reuters article "German minister: Ukraine needs long-range weapons to defend Kharkiv"
2. Maria Avdeeva writing for Atlantic Council "Anger and defiance in Kharkiv as advancing Russian troops draw closer"
3. BBC article "Russia's glide bombs devastating Ukraine's cities on the cheap" (only real means of defense is to strike them while in Russia, which Ukraine is not allowed to do)








MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. Satellite imagery of a heavily depleted artillery storage in Russia

Spoiler:







WAR CRIMES

1. Ukrainian underground school so children can learn without having to fear Russia's attacks

Spoiler:










GEORGIA

1. Georgian president vetoes bill
2. BBC article "Georgia president vetoes 'foreign agent' law"
3. Protests continue


Spoiler:





https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/cv2254nrv06o



Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-23-2024 , 08:53 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russia striking Vovchansk, Kharkiv suburb, from across the border where Ukraine is not allowed to strike back with donated weapons
2. Glide bomb hitting a building in Vovchansk
3. Russian drone dispatcher unsuccessfully guiding armored column


Spoiler:









UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Politico article "Lawmakers push for Biden to loosen Ukraine weapons restrictions"
2. Another Russian ship sunk



Spoiler:










RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Result of Russian attacks focusing on Ukrainian infrastructure and a lack of air defense on Ukraine's energy

Spoiler:









MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. UK MOD on overall state of the front lines
2. Economist claims Russia is attempting to get within shelling distance of Kharkiv and rebuttal
3. Soldier in Vovchansk, mentions inability to strike Russian artillery across the border
4. Reporter in Vovchansk talking about the fighting there

Spoiler:









MILITARY AID

1. 12 Congress members ask to allow Ukraine to be allowed to shoot into Russia
2. NYT article "‘What’s the Problem?’ Zelensky Challenges West Over Hesitations."

Quote:
He also suggested that there was another reason for the West’s hesitation: Some countries were seeking to retain trade and diplomatic ties with Russia. “Everyone keeps the door slightly ajar,” he said.
3. NYT article "Inside the White House, a Debate Over Letting Ukraine Shoot U.S. Weapons Into Russia"

Quote:
But the consensus around that policy is fraying. Propelled by the State Department, there is now a vigorous debate inside the administration over relaxing the ban to allow the Ukrainians to hit missile and artillery launch sites just over the border in Russia — targets that Mr. Zelensky says have enabled Moscow’s recent territorial gains.

The proposal, pressed by Secretary of State Antony J. Blinken after a sobering visit to Kyiv last week, is still in the formative stages, and it is not clear how many of his colleagues among Mr. Biden’s inner circle have signed on. It has not yet been formally presented to the president, who has traditionally been the most cautious, officials said.
4. McCaul attacking Biden administration over their policy of not allowing Ukraine to strike into Russia
5. Johnson saying Ukraine should be allowed to strike inside Russia
6. Reuters article "UK defence minister says China working to supply lethal aid to Russia"


Spoiler:




https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/21/w...interview.html


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/05/22/u...ns-russia.html






https://www.reuters.com/world/uk-def...ia-2024-05-22/





RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND RUSSIAN SANCTIONS

1. UK MOD on Russia's labor shortage
2. Bloomberg article "Virtually Every Sanctioned Russian Oil Tanker Remains Idle and Empty Months After Sanctions"


Spoiler:




Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-24-2024 , 09:48 PM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. FPV hits house that was storing ammo
2. HIMARS hits EW system
3. ATACMS hit another S400


Spoiler:








MILITARY AID


1. The Economist article "NATO’s boss wants to free Ukraine to strike hard inside Russia"


https://www.economist.com/europe/202...-inside-russia




PEACE TALKS

1. Reuters article "Exclusive: Putin wants Ukraine ceasefire on current frontlines"
2. Ukrainian Minister of Foreign Affairs on why Putin is signaling a desire for peace talks now
3. Rob Lee on the likelihood that Putin is genuine
4. Putin says "legitimacy of Ukraine's president has ended" while Yanukovych is present

Spoiler:


https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ay-2024-05-24/










RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Russia hits Kharkiv from across the border
2. Historic publishing house hit

Spoiler:










Mark Galeotti article with The Spectator "Why is Putin purging his generals?"

Quote:
To a degree, then, this current purge – which is unlikely to be over – is likely performative, a high-profile demonstration that there is a new sheriff in town and everyone better mend their ways. The fact that it is being carried out by DVKR, the FSB’s Military Counterintelligence Service, with Putin’s blessing and Belousov’s approval, is not, as some suggest a sign that the spooks are trying to rein in the soldiers, so much as that this is something that comes from the top of the system. There is always a place for the performative in politics, but the real challenge is moving on to change the underlying culture, not least as Putin’s whole system is a kleptocracy.

Nonetheless, there is an expectation that Belousov will likely have some success simply by cutting down on the simpler and more egregious forms of embezzlement both within the ministry and also by their suppliers, through administrative reforms. One ministry insider suggested ‘he may be able to cut’ the high-level, industrial-scale corruption ‘by perhaps one ruble in four, one in three, if he’s really lucky, and really good.’

In the context, though, when almost every military construction project is padded, where heavy-duty, all-terrain tyres are invoiced for and cheap Chinese replacements actually fitted, and in which shoddy and overpriced contractors get repeat orders by paying off the procurement officer, even a 10 per cent improvement will make a real difference, considering that this year’s budget saw 11 trillion roubles (£86 billion) devoted to defence. Belousov’s accountants may well yet make a serious contribution to the war effort.
Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-27-2024 , 04:59 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Bradley is hit, troops survive and are picked up by another Bradley
2. Abrams with counter UAV screen
3. HIMARS hit EW system
4. Video of a Russian 6th Tank Regiment T-80BV tank with a roof screen being struck by a Ukrainian FPV in the Avdiivka area but sustaining minimal damage.

Spoiler:










RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Zelenskyy on Russia striking a construction market (similar to Lowe's) in Kharkiv
2. Footage from outside the store when the glide bombs hit
3. Security camera footage inside the building
4. Location of the airfield the aircraft took off from (well within striking distance if Ukraine were allowed to hit it)
5. Maria Avdeeva on the multiple strikes on Kharkiv civilians
6. GRAPHIC Compilation of strikes on Kharkiv this week


Spoiler:










https://x.com/ZelenskyyUa/status/1794714349442826387






MILITARY AID

1. Sweden specifically says they allow their weapons to strike inside Russia
2. Russian EW causing several long range missile types to not hit their targets


Spoiler:







UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Results of a UAV strike inside Russia
2. Several bombs Ukraine is using not performing well against Russian EW

Spoiler:









PEACE TALKS

1. ISW on Russia threatening nukes as they claim they are ready for peace talks
2. The Guardian article "Russia begins tactical nuclear weapon drills near Ukraine border"



Spoiler:





https://www.theguardian.com/world/ar...ukraine-border










RECRUITMENT

ft article "Russia’s military seeks new recruits: crime suspects"

https://www.ft.com/content/ade7862b-...reType=nongift
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
05-30-2024 , 03:14 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. FPV strike against Russian on motorcycle
2. FPV attack on desert cross

Spoiler:







MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

Soldier discussing Vovchansk, near Kharkiv


Spoiler:








SANCTIONS

1. Report on how Russia is evading sanctions for cruise missiles
2. Trade from HK and a few countries down significantly

Spoiler:







MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. Czech ammo initiative about to arrive
2. Several countries make it clear their weapons can be used to strike inside Russia
3. Politico article "Top Biden aides signal openness to letting Ukraine strike Russia with US weapons"
4. France plans to send instructors to Ukraine
5. USA opens a new factory for 155mm
6. Economist article "There is an explosive flaw in the plan to rearm Ukraine "

Spoiler:












GEORGIA

Parliament overrides president's veto

Spoiler:







SYRSKY

Military reforms: General staff sending 60% of staff to field units

Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-01-2024 , 11:18 PM
BATTLIE CLIPS

1. Motorcycle with an anti drone cage
2. Alleged missile strike into Belgorod, shortly after USA agrees Ukraine can strike across the border into Kharkiv

Spoiler:









MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION

1. Joint statement asking Biden to allow strikes in Russia
2. Policy change so Ukraine can fire a little bit over the border of Kharkiv, but not deeper into Russia, and Russia's nuclear threats as a response
3. Germany does similar
4. Russia claims already getting struck
5. Bloomberg article "US Turns to Turkey for Explosives as War in Ukraine Saps Supply"
6. ft article "Russia sources ammunition faster than west, says Prague"

Quote:
“The production capacity is out there. But it is not in Europe,” Kopečný said. “There are single-digit millions of rounds of ammunition that we are competing [with Russia] for . . . The only thing we need for that is corresponding finances.”

7. Reuters article "Money, not capacity, main issue for ammo supplies to Ukraine, Czech official says"



Spoiler:








https://www.ft.com/content/028c4115-...a-7cd7ffa7fa56




https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ys-2024-05-30/




GEORGIA

1. Thread on the hired thugs attacking protestors, similar to Euromaidan
2. Overview of what Georgia Dream has been doing

Spoiler:







UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Wapo article "U.S. concerned about Ukraine strikes on Russian nuclear radar stations"
2. Several strikes, one 1200km from front lines

Spoiler:











RECRUITMENT


1. Thread on Russia's hiring African men for soldiers and luring women with promises of higher education while instead putting them into drone production

Spoiler:








RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. January through April's deficit allegedly over twice as much as Russia predicted

Spoiler:






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Russian telegram states Kharkiv advancements have stalled and Ukraine has counterattacked in several areas; Ukrainian says situation is improving
2. Politico article "Hitting Russia where it hurts: Ukraine tightens the noose around Crimea"


Spoiler:




https://www.politico.eu/article/russ...ens-the-noose/




RUSSIAN WAR CRIMES

1. Pic of one of the 75 Ukrainian POWs released this week who is malnourished

Spoiler:






Russia completes a railroad in Donetsk

Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-03-2024 , 08:52 PM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Russian armored column destroyed near Avdiivka
2. GRAPHIC Two BTR's attacked by Bradleys
3. GRAPHIC Russian armored vehicle unloads troops then gets attacked
3. FPVs taking out recon drones
4. Drone hits Russians in a building
5. Ground drone attacking trench

Spoiler:














MILITARY AID

1. Politico article "How Biden got to a ‘yes’ on letting Ukraine hit inside Russia" on the decision to allow Ukraine to strike an extremely limited distance inside Russia
2. Ander Puck Nielsen on the importance of Ukraine being allowed to strike into Russia






MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Russia moving troops, looks like they are about to make a big push somewhere
2. Ukrainian talking about fighting outside Kharkiv in Vovchansk
3. Russian talking about the fighting there

Spoiler:












RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. ft article "Russia-China gas pipeline deal stalls over Beijing’s price demands"


https://www.ft.com/content/f7a34e3e-...9-a092f382c526
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-05-2024 , 10:20 PM
Are these FPV drones off-the-shelf stuff, or are they specifically designed for military applications?
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-05-2024 , 10:54 PM
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. Ukraine spots a truck convoy and hits it with FPVs
2. FPV strikes on turtle tanks
3. GREAT READ
Quote:
This brings us to the crux of the fortifications problem: although Ukraine should still be doing a lot more digging and mining there, it's pretty much impossible to build concrete fortifications any than this. Even 10km is a stretch with everything in view of enemy drones.

This results in a painful dilemma: you don't want to give up territory, for many reasons, but you could be fighting a lot more efficiently, saving a lot more of your infantry at a higher cost to the enemy, if you fall back and fight out of concrete rather than mud.

Spoiler:










UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. S300 or 400 hit in Ukraine (there have been several of these recently, likely in preparation for f16s)
2. HIMARS strike into Belgorod

Spoiler:






RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. ft article "Russia has taken out over half of Ukraine power generation"

https://www.ft.com/content/4d583259-...e-ea77f4a76175





MILITARY AID

1. German official stating that Ukraine can strike Russian planes wherever (this was not the case before and Ukraine got into trouble by using Germany AD to hit Russian aircraft in Russia)
2. Johnson stating that Ukraine should be less micromanaged
3. Kirby claims Ukraine was never prevented from striking Russian aircraft over Russia (they absolutely were)


Spoiler:









MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. UK MOD on likely focus of Russia

Spoiler:






WAR CRIMES

1. GREAT READ NYT article "What Ukraine Has Lost"
2. Pics of a guard at Chernobyl who was a POW for 2 years
3. CNN article "‘How do I live?’ A 10-year-old Ukrainian orphan recalls the brutal destruction of his family"
4. CNN article "Survivors say Russia is waging a war of sexual violence in occupied areas of Ukraine. Men are often the victims"










RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Russia doubles fuel subsidies

Spoiler:


Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-05-2024 , 11:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by Phat Mack
Are these FPV drones off-the-shelf stuff, or are they specifically designed for military applications?
This is an excellent question and a hot topic in the OSINT community. The answer is both, and to many different degrees. There are military drones, there are commercial drones, and there are commercial drones with varying degrees of military adaptations to them.


Ukraine's usage of FPVs was opportunistic and an adaptation of commercial usage. Near the beginning of the war there was a famous video of a tank formation getting hit by Ukrainian artillery. The story behind the clip is that a Ukrainian drone hobbyist was flying his drone, saw the column and began livestreaming it. The Ukrainian military contacted him via Whatsapp, asked to share the feed and then struck the column. This led to the creation of a military and drone hobbyist Whatsapp group where they could share their feed with the military and strike. (Whatsapp and Signal played an integral role in Ukrainian communication at the beginning of the war, which I always found fascinating.)


Ukraine began to to use FPVs more and more, it was possible to make a few a day in someone's home if they knew how. This wasn't scaled up until later on in the war. It also led to Ukraine at first, and then later Russia, purchasing hobbyist drones in mass. There was a famous picture awhile back of a Chinese fair where on one side it said something like "Ukrainian drones" and on the opposite side it said "Russian drones".

At the same time the Bayraktar drone is a Turkish made military drone used extensively at the beginning of the war by Ukraine. It was thought to revolutionize warfare, was a major asset as it could do recon and strike targets, but eventually Russia learned to counter it and it's now pretty much extinct from the battlefield.

Drone operators began strapping explosives onto the commercial drones so they could either fire the drone into a target and cause an explosion, or to drop the explosive above a target. This is still used, and also has become a military produced drone.







The distinction between these types of drones quickly began to blur. The main type of drones being used now are these:

FPV types: commercial Chinese ones used for recon and light bombers,

Rotor drones: commercial drones with a munition strapped on for heavier bombings

FPV strike drones: also commercial with military modifications so it can strike a target

larger wing drones: military similar to Bayraktar

loitering munition: can be a commercial rotor drone with a munition strapped on, or a military designed one like the Baba Yaga



Drone warfare has evolved constantly since the start of the war, and every 6 months or so looks drastically different.

Last edited by Bluegrassplayer; 06-05-2024 at 11:36 PM.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-08-2024 , 10:41 PM
This Drone business is fascinating. I know of some of the DIY R&D going on in the People's Republic of Texas and this whole field is growing exponentially.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
06-11-2024 , 05:26 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ukraine assaults Russian positions from short range with 30mm
2. Rusian BTR his by Bradley 25mm
3. Motorcycle with a tarp hit by drone
4. Drones hitting tanks with anti-drone measures
5. Motorcycle with anti-drone measures
6. Ukrainian soldier is injured, drone spots him and he was saved
7. GREAT WATCH Attack on Russian armored column. Front and rear vehicle are knocked out then the ones in the middle.
8. Close combat trench battle with drone helping
9. Drone finds Russian drone team and strikes



Spoiler:












MAJOR BATTLEFRONTS

1. Assessment that so far Russia's Kharkiv offensive has been a failure
2. Assessment that Kharkiv has yet to help Russia's main effort at Chasiv Yar


Spoiler:










RECRUITMENT


1. GREAT READ WAPO article "Basic training in Ukraine is barely covering the basics, commanders say"
2. New Voice of Ukraine article on Ukrainian ministries competing for workers and recruits
3. Politico article "Macron to ‘finalize’ plans to send Western trainers to Ukraine"







RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Economist explains the future of Russia's economy

Spoiler:







RUSSIAN STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. Ukraine energy infrastructure threatens another wave of refugees
2. Claim that Russia's glidebombs are becoming less effective due to EW
3. BBC article "'Spy mania': Why is Russia accusing its own physicists of treason?"

Spoiler:





https://www.bbc.com/news/articles/c8001gvp4dpo





UKRAINE STRIKE CAMPAIGN

1. RUSI article "Damaged Su-57 Emphasises the Vulnerability of Russian Airbases Near Ukraine"
2. Confirmation that a patriot destroyed the A-50 in January


Spoiler:











GEORGIA

1. USA imposes sanctions on Georgia

Spoiler:








PROPAGANDA

1. Russia's head propagandist saying Russia could eventually destroy UK

Spoiler:







ZELENSKYY

1. Zelenskyy at D-Day anniversary

Spoiler:








AZOV

1. WAPO article "U.S. lifts weapons ban on Ukrainian military unit"

https://www.washingtonpost.com/natio...ne-us-weapons/






WAGNER

1. BBC article '“Immoral, but effective”: how and at what cost the Wagner PMC captured Bakhmut' Nearly 20k KIA, 88% of which were convicts
Spoiler:




English link: https://bbcrussian.substack.com/p/ho...ers-in-bakhmut

Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote

      
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