BATTLE CLIPS

1. ATGM followed by 25mm cannon from Bradley
2. HIMARS strike on Russian UAV team
3. Ukrainian FPV stopped by a fishing net






MAJOR LOSSES

1. Russia has 2 more planes shot down







RECRUITMENT

1. Ukrainian talks about the realities of being undermanned
2. CNN video on Nepalese mercenaries used by Russia









SANCTIONS

1. 20 minute video on what has happened to the 50 tankers sanctioned for carrying Russian oil
2. ft article "Gazprom grapples with collapse in sales to Europe"
3. European natural gas prices continue falling








RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. GREAT READ WaPo article "Kremlin runs disinformation campaign to undermine Zelensky, documents show"
2. GREAT READ EU vs Disinfo article "Hate speech and calls for genocide in Putin’s Russia"
3. UK MOD on high profile Russians being forced to do Russian propaganda. Includes one of the people from the "Almost naked" party.








MILITARY AID

1. Sweden announced they will send a $7 billion aid package






ASSASSINATIONS

The pilot who defected to Russia with the helicopter found dead in Spain

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. Ukrainian drones hit warehouse with equipment (map of how close to the frontline this was in comments
2. Russian BMP hits mine
3. Video of a failed assault on Avidiivka (assuming it's archival)





WAR CRIMES

1. Ukraine accuses Russia of executing POWs after they took Zenit
2. Longer article on it
3. BBC article "Avdiivka: Russia accused of executing prisoners of war after Ukraine withdraws"







AVDIIVKA

1. UK MOD on fall of Avdiivka
2. Russians looting
3. Video and map of failed attack after Russians continue in this sector
4. Attack on Vuhledar, a town with similar importance as Avdiivka which Russia has been trying to take for a long time as well. Could be Russia's next goal
5. NYT article "Hundreds of Ukrainian Troops Feared Captured or Missing in Chaotic Retreat"
6. Kyiv Independent article "Ukrainian soldiers recall retreat from Avdiivka – on foot, leaving their wounded behind"












DNIPRO

Shoigu claims Kynky cleared of Ukrainians, Russian soldier dismisses claim (wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine pulls back soon now)






RECRUITMENT

1. Article on Indians coerced to fight for Russia









ARRESTS AND ASSASSINATIONS


1. The Guardian article "Russia arrests US dual national over alleged $51 Ukrainian charity donation"
2. Video of her being led around blindfolded
3. NYT article "Russian Pilot Who Defected to Ukraine Is Believed Dead in Spain"









10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY SINCE INVASION OF CRIMEA

1. ISW on important events
2. U24 on Revolution of Dignity and 10 years at war






NAVALNY

1. Meduza article "Vladimir Putin upgrades rank of Russian Penitentiary Service deputy head three days after Navalny’s death in prison"





HYBRID WARFARE

1. GREAT READ RUSI article The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24

2. PM of Estonia says they stopped a hybrid attack
3. List of recent GRU efforts in Italy
4. Reuters article "Finland says thousands of migrants are seeking to enter via Russia"
5. Polish farmers blockade Ukrainian grain and spill it, reports that they have pro Putin/Russia flags
6. GOOD READ Economist article "Russian spies are back—and more dangerous than ever"












1. Russian telegram reports a strike 7km into occupied territory
2. Russian telegram reports 65 casualties
3. GRAPHIC Potential footage of the result

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. GRAPHIC Another strike on grouped Russian soldiers (insane footage)
2. Geolocation of the 4 strikes
3. Drone takes out fixed wing drone







MILITARY AID

Reuters article "Exclusive: Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles"









RECRUITMENT

1. WSJ article "Ukraine’s Military Spy Chief Says Russia Will Struggle to Keep Up the Fight" but also says Russia is able to recruit more in 2 months than Ukraine killed at Avdiivka








SANCTIONS

1. How much heavy equipment and car sales from UK to Russia fell after sanctions
2. How much heavy equipment and car sales from UK to Kyrgyzstan rose after sanctions
3. ft article "EU agrees first sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies for Russia war links"
4. Western sanctions against head of the penal colony where Navalny was killed after Putin promoted them









RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. This guy was a very vocal milblogger before Girkin was arrested for being too pro-Russian regarding soldiers. After making his remarks on Avdiivka about the losses and casualties there, Murz was forced to delete it. he wrote a long post complaining about how he was threatened that if he didn't remove the post then his unit would stop receiving supplies and essentially be sent on suicide missions. He then committed suicide.









HYBIRD WARFARE

1. BBC article "Alexander Smirnov: FBI source accused of Biden lies 'linked to Russian intelligence'"
2. (Not really Russian hybrid warfare but the absurdity is too much to not bring up) NBC article "Hunter Biden's lawyers say prosecutors confused a picture of sawdust with cocaine" The pic in the article is clearly sawdust

BATTLE CLIPS

Ukrainian CASEVAC of wounded soldiers using M113 armored vehicle (mentioned below that they're to receive hundreds more of these)






RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. GREAT READ The Telegraph article "Russia is losing the economic war: the West must not lose its nerve now" covers Russia's economy and the West's defense production

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ot-lose-nerve/



WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES

1. NBC article "Russian troops raped and tortured children in Ukraine, U.N. panel says"
2. Public hearing on Russian war crimes
3. Foreign Policy article "There Must Be a Reckoning for Russian War Crimes"







MILITARY AID

1. ABC article "US estimates Ukraine military shortages could grow catastrophic by late March"
2. Ukraine expected to receive many more M 113s, shown in the battle clip above






ROBOTYNE, AVDIIVKA AND OTHER BATTLEFRONTS

1. UK MOD on Russia's renewed efforts in Robotyne
2. ISW on Russia's 4 main operations
3. GOOD READ Pravda article "The last days of Avdiivka. What led to the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the city and how it happened" Covers the pipe used to attack Avdiivka and assault on Zenit






SANCTIONS

1. CNN article "Justice Department announces criminal and civil actions against sanctioned Russian oligarchs"

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/22/p...lin/index.html







PROPAGANDA

1. Zelenskyy interview with Fox News







NAVALNY

1. CNN article on Navalny's mother being shown the body and asked to have a "secret burial" for it
2. Over 500 people who attended Navalny memorials forced to enlist






France's Defense Minister claims "Russian operators threatened to shoot down manned French aircraft on patrol over the Black Sea, in international airspace"








Transnistria supposedly to vote on whether or not to ask Moscow to annex them on Feb 28th (I've hardly followed this)

1. Russian telegram claims another A-50 was shot down
2. Video of a plane deploying flares then getting hit. Scroll down for video of burning wreckage and map of where it fell, a different angle, another tg channel saying it was an A 50

RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIAN Wartime Measures & Technology Sanctions Inflicting Long Term Damage on Russian Economy" the portion dealing with the title has been summarized elsewhere, but this is also a good summary of it. The part of Yandex, Russia's Google, is great.










MILITARY AID


1. ABC article "War-weary Ukraine shows renewed interest in Australia's aging Abrams tanks"
2. Discharge petition to force Ukraine aid bill being threatened
3. NBC article "Republican dysfunction drives a wave of House retirements"

4. ft article "European capitals seek $1.5bn in fallback plan to arm Ukraine"











SOLDIERS SPEAKING

Long thread on the extrajudicial punishments and torture mobiks receive, rising desertion, and suicide charges

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...173988755.html









STRIKES IN RUSSIA

1. Drones hit Russia's largest steel mill








NAVALNY


CNN article "Navalny’s mother told to agree to secret funeral or have her son buried at penal colony, spokesperson says"


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/23/e...ntl/index.html





HYBRID WARFARE

ISW article "WARNING: TRANSNISTRIA MAY ORGANIZE A REFERENDUM ON ANNEXATION TO RUSSIA TO SUPPORT RUSSIAN HYBRID OPERATION AGAINST MOLDOVA"



https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...russian-hybrid









RANDOM

I decided to start including some random things that didn't quite fit in the previous week.

1. This is a diary/blog post of someone discussing life 2 years when Russia invaded vs today. It's a really heartfelt look at life away from the frontlines where the author is full of both hope and fear.
2. Politico article "Roiled by scandal, Hungary names new president"
3. Volunteer in Ukraine giving an angry video message about Ukraine aid
4. Daily KOS article "A right-wing family moved to Russia to escape 'LGBTQ, trans,' but now they're 'ready' to 'get out'"
5. Timothy Snyder on the parallels between Ukraine and WW2
6. Le Monde article "Ukraine's war widows: 'None of us was prepared to pay such a high price for our country'"
7. Grenade launcher goes off in Melitopol
8. NYT article "Trump Again Compares Himself to Navalny While Discussing Legal Woes"
9. Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs on the various treaties which failed to protect Ukraine
10. Estonian intelligence service on Russian propaganda narratives

Last Saturday I told myself that I'd start posting my thoughts on each week the following weekend and here we are. At the time I didn't realize that it would fall on the 2nd anniversary of the full scale invasion.


There is a good chance that this week is the start of the low point of the war for Ukraine. Avdiivka fell, Johnson sent the House of Representatives on recess for 2 weeks without figuring out aid, Navalny was murdered, and Tucker continues to peddle Putin's propaganda to far right Americans even as Putin threw him under the bus for their failure of an interview. It did manage to end on a good note though with Russia destroying another one of their A-50 command planes, bringing the total amount of Russian planes downed this week up to (I think) 7. Russia had only 7 of these command planes left, they cost over 300 million, they are capable of seeing battle movement over 600km away with their advanced radar system, and they have highly trained professionals on board. Currently they are believed to be irreplaceable due to sanctions, so it is a decent win on an otherwise awful week.


AVDIIVKA

Ukraine finally withdrew from Avdiivka, which I believe they should have done a long time ago. There's a lot of rumors on why it took so long for Ukraine to withdraw, a lot of which we found out this week were exacerbated by Russian propaganda. There were lots of rumors of a rift between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy, which was apparently stoked by Russia's propaganda machine. It seems this rift existed, but it's unlikely it was anything close to what the media portrayed. Ultimately Zaluzhnyi stepped down and Syrkski took over. Syrski has a negative reputation due to his defense of Bakhmut. The defense started off positively until it was surrounded and the excellent attrition ratio became far more even. Furthermore it is being argued that Ukraine's failed counteroffensive likely could have taken Tokmak if it weren't for the offensive near Bakhmut, which is believed to be politically motivated and forced by Zelenskyy. Zaluzhnyi's removal is not anything out of the ordinary following a major failed operation, but it certainly leaves a bad taste that he might have been handicapped by the person forcing his replacement.

Following the withdraw from Avdiivka there began to be rumors of a botched retreat. NYT had a pretty irresponsible article claiming up to a thousand Ukrainians being left behind. Ukraine claimed 25, which was equally ridiculous. On top of that there was evidence that some of the soldiers who surrendered were executed.

The timing of the retreat seemed to be rather suspicious as well. Zaluzhnyi could have, and likely did, want to retreat earlier. It seems like Syrksi was put in charge to try to hold Avdiivka until Putin's election in order to deprive him of a political win, but Syrski saw the situation was hopeless as well and ordered the retreat. That is entirely speculation on my part though. I doubt that anyone in Ukraine or Russia much cares about Avdiivka as far as political wins goes and it will be of limited use to Putin.

After Avdiivka's fall, Russia has continued west, although with limited results. It's still unclear where Ukraine has set up their next line of defense. Meanwhile Russia is also attacking near Robotyne, which Ukraine took during the counteroffensive. This will be exceptionally difficult to defend, but also of limited use to Russia. Russia is continuing to attack near Kupyansk, and Krynky. I think that now that Avdiivka has fallen Ukraine will likely withdraw from Krynky as well.




Elections

Exactly one month before Putin's election, Navalny was murdered. Shortly after another ultranationalist committed suicide or was murdered for complaining about Russian casualties at Avdiivka. Another anti-war candidate was barred from joining the ballot, and said he was shocked he hasn't been thrown out of a window yet. Following Navalny's death over 500 people were arrested for holding memorials and at least some were given military summons and will likely be sent to the front line. Putin has made it clear that he is not going to allow any discussion of the war occur during elections unless it's his narrative. He's also culling anyone who will not vote for him. Why is this an important thing when Putin is guaranteed to win? Here is Thomas Graham's take from Getting Russia Right:



This is what he had to say regarding Navalny:








MILITARY AID

The Munich Conference occurred this week, which I hardly reported on since there was hardly anything to report. The conference was extremely depressing. While Ukraine has signed security agreements with many countries which promises aid, the fact is that Europe was too slow to launch their military industry for that to actually mean anything at this moment. Europe has sent 400k of the million promised 155mm rounds, and due to France they have not looked into buying them from elsewhere. Czech Republic said to hell with that and has been leading the charge by finding ammo elsewhere and requesting the $1.5bln required to buy it. The other two major wins out of this conference was Denmark handing over all of their artillery, and Sweden sending $700 million worth of military aid to Ukraine. It seems like they will be joining NATO soon, and they will be a powerhouse. Their only concern is Russia and they are as about as pro-Ukraine as the Baltic states.

Meanwhile Ukrainians are sending reports back that they see groupings of 5 Russians coming at them but due to lack of ammo they cannot fire artillery at them. Jack Watling said that the issues caused by ammo shortages "will initially be felt slowly and then felt fast". It's terrifying to think that this is the "slow" part. Even worse is the fact that air defense ammunition will be running out as well. I stopped reporting on Russian strikes against Ukraine cities because for the most part their air defenses have been shooting down whatever Russia launches. It felt pretty awful to stop reporting that "only" 5 were killed in the previous day's strike, but it stopped being newsworthy, much like the now daily drone strikes against Russia's military complex. It's scary to think that the numbers of civilian deaths might rise drastically and I'll have to begin posting them again.

USA is somehow on recess for 2 weeks. Johnson's campaign was apparently funded by a Russian company. The same far right reps who are stalling aid were the ones behind the Hunter Biden case, which began due to a FBI informant who was fed the info by a Russian spy. The main way to get the aid bill on the floor, despite Johnson and the far right refusing to do so, is a month long process.

Production in Europe and USA is ramping up. Rheinmetall has upped production significantly, as have other European companies. USA opened 2 more factories for 155mm ammo. It is a serious possibility that Ukraine has more ammo than Russia in 2025, but what happens in 2024, and especially the next few months, is a major question. It seems realistic that this is the low point of the war for Ukraine. I certainly hope it is.

YEAR 3 OF 3 DAY SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION

1. Zelenskyy's message to his people
2. Tendar on the anniversary
3. Anders Puck Nielson with optimistic and pessimistic predictions for this year
4. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA - Putin's '3 Day War' Enters Third Year as Russian Economy is Devastated by Costs & Sanctions"
5. UK MOD on initial attack and now






ZELENSKYY

1. Comparison of where the interviews were filmed







MILITARY PRODUCTION


UK gov article "UK to boost Ukraine's artillery reserves with £245 million munitions package"

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...itions-package





MILITARY AID

CBC article "Trudeau signs $3-billion security deal for Ukraine on 2nd anniversary of Russian invasion"

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7124330





RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

Ukrainian woman is used in deep fakes to sell pro-Russian propaganda in China










ZAPORIZHZHIA

1. Result of Russian BMPs which made a charge in Robotyne
2. DeepState on the "banzai attack" strategy Russians are conducting here
3. Russian armor attack
4. Daily KOS article "Ukraine: Robotyne is Falling"







NAVALNY

NBC article "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s body returned to his mother, spokesperson says"








HYBRID WARFARE

1. Le Figaro article "Stars of David spray painted in Paris: the operation was led by the Russian FSB"

2. NBC artic "Former U.S. spies warned in 2020 that the Hunter Biden scandal had Russian fingerprints. They feel vindicated now."


https://www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...russe-20240223


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna140240

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Drone drops grenade on another drone
2. GRAPHIC "Remote aerial explosion of drone over enemy"
3. First sighting of a damaged/destroyed Abrams







CASUALTIES AND RECRUITMENT
1. BBC article "Ukraine war: Zelensky says 31,000 troops killed"
2. ""I was at the committee, I did not see that the General Staff said that we have up to 50 thousand [dead people - ed.]. There was no such thing at the committee... Somewhere they talked about 7-8 thousand missing people, so this is a figure somewhere up to 40,000," Kostenko said."
3. Visit Ukraine article "Demobilization of conscripts: Verkhovna Rada adopts law proposed by President" (likely precursor to mobilization bill imo)










WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES

1. Medvedev says Ukrainians in occupied lands who want to be liberated by Ukraine should be sent to Siberia and reeducated
2. "💬 Andriy Yermak: The Red Cross has not been able to gain access to a single Ukrainian prisoner of war. This is the verdict of this organization."
3. Basement where over 300 Ukrainian villagers were held for 27 days, 7 executed, 10 died
4. GRAPHIC Drone watches 9 Ukrainian POWs being executed









MILITARY AID

1. Macron claims sending troops to Ukraine can't be ruled out; European coalition will send medium and long range missiles
2. Poland PM on the importance of USA military aid for the future of global politics









NAVALNY

NYT article "Navalny Was Part of Discussions on a Prisoner Exchange"







ELECTIONS

1. Vsquare article "KREMLIN LEAKS: SECRET FILES REVEAL HOW PUTIN PRE-RIGGED HIS REELECTION"







RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. FT article "Russia unleashes war propaganda offensive in Italy"
2. 'Tonight Russian state TV has this message for the Russian public: “We’re for peace. But peace is always the result of war. War was forced on us. So we will secure peace again through victory.”'










NATO

Sweden voted into NATO





Obituary for someone who has on the A 50 and who else was on board

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ukrainian air defense shooting down a shahed (these are launched at Ukrainian cities so often I stopped including the stats on how many are shot down)
2. Armored column attacking southwest of Avdiivka (I think)








WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES

1. Head of Zaporizhzhia occupation explaining that Ukrainians were forcefully deported to "Bandera land" to build their "Gay World"






AVDIIVKA

1. Russia continues moving west






CORRUPTION

Kyiv Post article "Mayor of Odesa Gennadiy Trukhanov Arrested in Connection with Embezzlement Charges"







SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Bloomberg article "Russian Oil Tankers Behave Strangely After Latest US Sanctions"
2. Reuters article "Russia bans gasoline exports for 6 months from March 1"
3. Video of Russians purchasing Starlink terminals









RECRUITMENT AND MILITARY AID

1. GREAT READ Summary of the problems Ukraine is currently facing with manpower and equipment shortages
2. FT article "Macron says sending western troops to Ukraine cannot be ruled out"
3. ft article "Germany rebuffs Emmanuel Macron on troops for Ukraine and tells Paris to ‘supply more weapons’"
4. Bloomberg article "North Korea Speeds Up Pace of Secretive Weapons Shipments to Putin"
5. Czech article "Support also from Macron. The Czech Republic succeeded in its plan to purchase ammunition for Ukraine"
6. "Israel’s ambassador to the UN, Gilad Erdan, delivered a speech in which he totally torched Russia. He not only announced that Israel is going to provide an early warning systems against missiles for Ukraine but also called Ukraine an “ally”. He also equates Russia with Hamas and attacks Russia for hosting another visit of Hamas in Moscow."

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Bradley firing
2. Two Russian APCs struck






MILITARY AID

1. 3 minute clip: "Schumer: White House meeting on Ukraine aid was 'intense'"
2. CNN article "Pentagon considering tapping last source of Ukraine military funding as Congress stalls on additional aid"
3. South Korean Defense Minister claims up to 3m million artillery shells shipped from North Korea to Russia
4. The Spectator article "Why Macron won’t send troops to Ukraine"



5. NYT article "As Spending Talks Intensify, Johnson’s Bind Grows Tighter"
6. "Speakers from 23 parliaments have penned an open letter to Speaker Johnson urging the House to pass Ukraine aid"








RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. Guardian article "US leading global alliance to counter foreign government disinformation"

https://www.theguardian.com/technolo...disinformation




SANCTIONS AND ECONOMY

1. Tatarigami thread on how Russia avoids sanctions
2. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA Bans All Gasoline Exports - Huge Production Problems & Massive Loss of Income for Russia"








AVDIIVKA
GREAT READ Tatarigami "Key insights from our analysis (Complete report accessible on the website provided in my bio) concerning the post-Avdiivka situation, fortifications, and anticipations."









NYT article "The Spy War: How the C.I.A. Secretly Helps Ukraine Fight Putin"






BBC article "Sixth person charged with spying for Russia in UK"






GREAT READ RUSI article "Weathering the Storm: Western Security Assistance on the Defensive in Ukraine"




https://rusi.org/explore-our-researc...ensive-ukraine

MILITARY AID

1. The Hill article "Johnson reacts to being ganged up on at ‘intense’ White House meeting"

https://thehill.com/homenews/house/4...house-meeting/





AVDIIVKA

1. UK MOD on Russian advances








RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Newsweek article "China Deals Major Blow to Russia with Payments Ban"


https://www.newsweek.com/china-russi...ctions-1874226









MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. UK MOD on Russian production







HYBRID WARFARE

1. Decode39 article "Italy Uncovers Russian Plot to Disrupt EU with Protests"
2. BBC article "French urged to watch out for Russian interference"



https://decode39.com/8817/italy-unco...with-protests/
https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68414300.amp






Even with a conservative estimate, Russia has lost 1/4 of its air force








Tucker says Putin claiming Nazis are in Ukraine is dumb







1. ft article "Leaked Russian military files reveal criteria for nuclear strike"

2. ft article "How Russia war-gamed a Chinese invasion"





CNN article "A breakaway region in Europe is asking Russia for protection. Here’s what to know"

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/28/e...ntl/index.html

BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. Ground kamikaze drone
2. GRAPHIC Bradley against infantry
3. Despite loss of planes, Russian bombing doesn't slow down






MILITARY AID

1. Bloomberg article "Ukraine to Get 155mm Artillery Shells Found in Czech-Led Effort"










NAVALNY

1. Farewell from Yulia, Navalny's wife
2. Crowd of people going to Navalnvy's funeral chanting "no to the war"
3. “One sacrificed himself to save the country, the other one sacrificed the country to save himself”
4. Another view of the crowd
5. Another
6. Chanting "Russia without Putin"
7. His mother saying farewell and the KM long line








RECRUITMENT

1. Analysis of PMC, Uranus, fighting for Russia near Krynky

2. Le Monde article "Indians recruited without their knowledge into the Russian army" about Indians who signed up to work in Dubai but were sent to Russia








RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Moscow Times article "Russian Billionaire Antipov Detained After Steel Plants Nationalized"


https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2024/...nalized-a84252






RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

Le Monde article "The DGSI is investigating an attempt to destabilize the European elections by pro-Russians in France"







RANDOM


1. Putin election ad showing life without him: Gay Nazis enforce heterosexual ghettos and the Ministry of Justice & Anal Punishment uses dildos to torture anyone for traditional values
2. Mass grave near Izium
3. Minister of Foreign Affairs of Lithuania on Putin, Russia, and red lines
4. "Russia's fortifications in Ukraine will scar Ukrainian land for generations."
5. UK MOD timeline of Russia using energy as a weapon

RECRUITMENT

Russia continues its stealth mobilization, offering relatively large amounts of money to people from countries where the salary represents a lot of money, and also by forcing some people to fight in pretty sinister ways which are essentially kidnapping. Most estimates are that Russia can replenish their losses in this way, but will not be able to greatly improve their offensive potential with this manner so most future offensives will look like Avdiivka, Vuhledar, Bakhmut etc.

Ukraine signed a demobilization bill, meaning a mobilization bill is likely going to follow shortly. Whether or not Ukraine can actually train and arm 500k soldiers in a timely fashion is a major question.

Macron said that EU troops in Ukraine can't be ruled out. Germany and others basically said this is complete bluster. Others have said that troops should be sent in non combat roles. It all seems very unlikely to me.



MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION

There's estimates that Russian military production has peaked, and if not then almost all experts predict it will shortly. Most of Russia's production is actually aimed at refurbishment, which won't last forever, is resulting in old tanks being used, and overall lesser quality. This won't last forever, but given how large Soviet stockpiles were, it will last for quite some time.

North Korea has supposedly sent 3 million artillery shells now. Ukraine claims that over half have proven unusable.

Ukraine is producing a lot of drones now, but drones are not a directly replacement for artillery. Russia has been active in attacking Ukrainian production, and no one knows how successful it's been.

EU finally ramps up production. Norway expanded production and is working their factories nonstop. Finland increased production, and also announced that any weapons they give can be used to attack inside Russia. Germany expanded one factory and is finishing another. France and Italy both expanding as well. Supposedly all of this expansion is reserved specifically for Ukraine, while the previous contracts had pre-war obligations to send to other countries.

EU has gathered funds for half of the shells that Czech Republic found. Some of these are allegedly on the way already.

Johnson is receiving more and more pressure to put the aid bill up for a vote, where it is expected to pass easily. Even if the House of Reps has to resort to a discharge petition, that means it's a month away. Dems are supposedly offering to keep him as Speaker if MAGA tries to vote him out. Others are threatening to oust him and put in a more moderate Speaker who will open the aid bill. Biden is considering using his executive powers to send 4bln worth of aid immediately. USA aid is likely to happen sometime soon.





FRONT LINE

Between all of the things mentioned above this means that Russia is going to push their advantage as much as possible in the short term as it might be the most advantageous position they have. Mobilization (regardless of how successful it is) is coming, more ammo is coming, Johnson might not be able to stall things in House of Reps much longer. This means Russia will continue attacking, in often reckless ways which we've seen already with Russia's air force. The extensive bombing campaign is what was credited (along with shortage of ammo) for breaking through Avdiivka. Ukraine claims to have downed 13 Russian aircraft in February, which is a massive amount. They are likely reporting all missiles fired at aircraft as hits, but even if they are, there's still visual confirmation for a lot of downed aircraft. Russia does not seem to care at the moment and is continuing the same rate of bombing in order to press their current advantage.



AVDIIVKA

Overall Avdiivka was a great place for Ukraine to fight for attrition: 600+ armored vehicles destroyed, close to 50k Russian casualties. Unfortunately the more that comes out about the withdrawal, it was clearly botched. Reports range from "it was a more or less orderly retreat" to "our dead littered the streets". It was still a major improvement over Bakhmut, where Ukraine kept fighting for far too long after the attrition numbers began to even out. Still, there's no excuse for the mismanagement of the withdrawal. Syrski has pointed fingers apparently and individuals are being blamed.

Meanwhile there's no clear line to fall back to. Building fortifications is being extremely mismanaged. The military is expected to build fortifications on their own, which is different from Russia which hires private contractors to construct them. Either Ukraine needs to separate this task out so units which are involved in fighting aren't also required to dig and build, or the military needs to be sent far more heavy equipment to actually enable them to create proper fortifications. It looks like Ukraine will do a fighting retreat west to where several bodies of water form a natural barrier, whether or not they have any fortifications there is a major question.





RUSSIAN ECONOMY

Russia stops gasoline exports for 6 months: "In order to offset excessive demand for petroleum products, it is necessary to take measures to help stabilize prices in the domestic market." This is obviously huge since it is a major part of Russia's economy. Considering the constant drone strikes against the refineries it's hard not to draw a connection. There's also been some footage of Russia completely botching their attempts of stopping the fires caused by these strikes, and they do not have the high tech components to repair them due to sanctions.

It's unsure what the outcome of mobilization will be for Ukraine. They are talking about lowering the age of mobilization, but in practice it's always been 30+ anyways. Ukraine has demographic problems where they don't have a large younger population, which is part of the reason that mobilizing this age group is extremely unpopular (aside from the obvious ones like parents not wanting to send children to war). Mobilizing the younger generation is largely seen as greatly harming Ukraine's future for after the war.





ELECTIONS AND NAVALNY

There was supposedly a battle between Navalny's family getting his corpse back from the state, but eventually it was retrieved and the funeral happened today. Considering Russia's draconian laws against saying anything negative about Putin at the moment, it's pretty heroic of anyone who actually showed up to his funeral, and especially for those who were openly chanting anti-war sentiments. Russia can't expect anyone else as brave or charismatic as Navalny again, so this is an extremely dark chapter for anyone hoping for a more democratic Russia.

Putin spent 1 billion on his election, gave a 2 hour state of the union address which was essentially a campaign speech, and has worked hard to make sure he's the only viable candidate. His propaganda through Tucker largely failed and now they're both blaming the other for the boring content it resulted in. Tucker claimed Putin's assertion that he invaded Ukraine because of Nazis was one of the dumbest things he heard, Putin claimed that Tucker giving him softballs made the interview boring because he was ready to come out swinging. He doesn't seem to be willing to back up his words by letting an actual journalist interview him however.

Mark Galeoti had a great quote regarding the importance of the elections despite already knowing the outcome, which is very much in line with the Thomas Graham quote I put in here last week which is even more true after the death of Navalny (speaking about the state of the union address):

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Some vids of armored vehicles after being hit
2. GRAPHIC FPV hits Russian armored vehicle and the troops are struck by Bradley after getting out
3. Baba Yaga dropping a bomb









AVDIIVKA AND OTHER FRONTS

1. Location of Russian armored losses after Avdiivka fell show where Russians are advancing and the costs of those advances
2. Ukraine now firing on the Avdiivka coke plant
3. UK MOD says that February has the highest recorded Russian casualties of the war
4. Graph showing the casualties (I believe this is strong evidence that Russia is pushing as far as they can despite losses before aid from Europe/USA arrives)








DEFENSIVE LINES

1. Analysis of Ukraine's defensive lines (or lack of)
2. NYT article "Surprisingly Weak Ukrainian Defenses Help Russian Advance"










NAVALNY

1. Mourners continue showing up to the funeral
2. Fact checking recent incorrect takes on Navalny







1. Lavrov preparing the ground for annexing Transnistria
2. Pravda article "Moldova rebuffs Russian Foreign Ministry's statement on Transnistria, says it has no right to lecture anybody on democracy"
3. Russian FSB exchange fire with militants north of Georgia










WSJ article "Russians Keep Turning Up Dead All Over the World: A helicopter pilot who defected to Ukraine is the latest obvious assassination, but a range of businessmen, bureaucrats and political figures have also suffered suspicious deaths since the invasion"


https://www.wsj.com/world/europe/rus...world-6acc8990

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Cluster munitions and artillery
2. Russian patrol ship is sunk by drones
3. Video of one of the hits
4. First confirmed destroyed HIMARS






WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES

1. Medvedev claiming Ukrainian identity should disappear for good to a cheering audience
2. His map of how Ukraine should look
3. Zelenskyy on ICC issuing arrest warrants for commanders who ordered strikes on civilian targets









RUSSIAN ECONOMY


1. A look at how Russia's National Wealth Fund is being liquidated







RUSSIAN STRIKES AGAINST UKRAINE

1. 12 people, 5 of which were children, killed in strike against Odesa
2. NYT article "Russian Strike’s Toll Rises to 12 as Zelensky Blames Air Defense Delay"

[QUOTE“When lives are lost, and partners are simply playing internal political games or disputes that limit our defense, it’s impossible to understand. It’s unacceptable,” Mr. Zelensky said.[/QUOTE]






MILITARY AID

1. CNN article "Johnson gives House GOP’s Ukraine backers room to craft plan as pressure builds for floor vote"
2. The Times article "German air force chief reveals secret UK operations in Ukraine" He reveals, what Taurus could do, how many could be sent, how it would be sold to be public and more








RECRUITMENT

1. Analysis of several of the things Ukraine is doing wrong regarding mobilization
2. Video of Indians asking to released from Russian army







DEFENSIVE LINES

1. A look at one place where Ukraine is (finally) building fortifications







HYBRID WARFARE

ABC article "Russian disinformation is about immigration. The real aim is to undercut Ukraine aid"


https://abcnews.go.com/US/wireStory/...-aid-107711422



NATO

Reuters article "Hungary president signs Sweden's NATO membership ratification" (Should be the final step)

https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...on-2024-03-05/







The Times article "Fears German military leaks on Ukraine are just ‘tip of the iceberg’"

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Bradley firing at close range
2. Footage of one of the sea drones going through water towards the ship
3. Drone filming a drone rescuing a drone
4. GRAPHIC Explanation of how drones are used to attack a Russian position








MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. GOOD READ Reuters article "Inside Europe's drive to get ammunition to Ukraine as Russia advances" Good overview of the efforts to find 155mm artillery and to up production as well as the challenged involved
2. Sky article "Budget's lack of new defence spending dismays insiders and Tory MPs"
3. Russian saying that there is more artillery fire from Ukraine on the front
4. Reuters article "EU aims to shift European arms industry to ‘war economy mode’"
5. Russia releases footage of its new Shahed factory
6. Bloomberg article "US Weighs Tapping Army Funds for Ukraine as Aid Bill Stalls"
7. Map of USA aid to Ukraine
8. President Pavel announces Czech initiative to gather funds to purchase 800k artillery shells reached its goal









SANCTIONS

1. Reuters article "Russia oil fleet shifts away from Liberia, Marshall Island flags amid US sanctions crackdown"
2. Reuters article "Top US official warns Austria over banking with Russia"
3. Reuters article "Turkish oil terminal halts Russian oil business"











HYBRID WARFARE

GREAT READ ft article "Europe kicked out Vladimir Putin’s spies. Now they’re back"


2. GREAT READ WSJ article "Ukraine Is Now Fighting Russia in Sudan"









NATO

Nato article "Sweden officially joins NATO"

https://www.nato.int/cps/en/natohq/news_223446.htm





CNN article "Deadly Russian missile struck close to Zelensky and Greek leader’s convoy" (this is all over the news, I think it's a coincidence, Russia has been firing at Odesa every day for some time now)


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/03/06/e...ntl/index.html

BATTLE CLIPS

Ukrainian soldiers near Robotyne fire grenade launchers then shoot at a column






WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY


1. 'Zaporizhzhia occupation governor says no Ukrainian POWs will ever be returned back to Ukraine. They will be engaged in penal labor and sent to war to fight against their countrymen as punishment for resisting "Mother Russia" – to "redeem [their sins] with blood."'









RECRUITMENT

1. Indian citizen fighting for Russia dies
2. Indian Express writes that Indians were promised high paying jobs or that they could study at a university then sent to the front line
3. Russian soldiers complaining that they were dismissed from military after being seriously wounded in order to not be paid








DEFENSIVE LINES

Video showing what goes into making a defensive line in Ukraine







SANCTIONS AND RUSSIAN ECONOMY


1. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA - Turkey & India Stop Buying Russian Oil as USA Increases Crackdown on Sanctions"
2. Foreign Policy article "Russia Is Burning Up Its Future"
3. Business Inside article "Russia's economy appears resilient, but companies are going bankrupt by the hundreds"









ZALUZHNYI

WaPo article 'Former Ukraine military head appointed to U.K. ambassador role"


https://www.washingtonpost.com/world...ambassador-uk/







1. Politico article "France finds Baltic allies in its spat with Germany over Ukraine troop deployment"

2. The Hill article "Macron has started something with his brilliant little blunder"









RANDOM

1. Russian "controlled" demolition
2. The Telegraph article "The Dorset tank museum helping Ukraine win the war"
3. Explosions in Taganrog, Russia. There is an airstrip here and last year there was an A50
4. Russian complaining about how conquering Avdiivka was presented
5. Metallurgy plant struck in Russia
6. Russian soldier in Krynky complaining that everyone he knows is dead or wounded
7, NYT article "Crowdfunding, Auctions and Raffles: How Ukrainians Are Aiding the Army"

AVDIIVKA AND MAJOR BATTLE FRONTS

Last week I said it seemed like Russia was going all out, regardless of casualties, in order to gain as much as possible before aid for Ukraine was figured out. The next day UK MOD said that the average daily number of Russian casualties in February was the highest the war has seen, which seems to support my guess. After that there were several reports from Russians claiming that Ukraine is firing a lot more artillery, and casualties are even higher. This seems to suggest that since Ukraine believes ammo is on the way that they are willing to give more to the frontlines to fire.

In Avdiivka Russia seems to have been stopped, but unfortunately a lot suggests that this didn't happen the way that would be best for Ukraine. Russia has knocked out several Ukrainian s-200s, destroyed a HIMARS system (first since the war began), and also disabled or destroyed 3 Abrams tanks. This suggests that instead of meeting a line of fortifications which Ukraine should have begun building last November (at the latest), Russia has been stopped by Ukraine pouring in the few units that they still had in reserve.

Robotyne has seen a lot of fighting, but no significant gains or losses

Kupyansk, the area before Khakriv, has seen fighting as well and also announced mandatory evacuations.

Russia continues trying to dislodge the Krynky bridgehead, but cannot do it despite the massive amount of equipment thrown into the fight there.



RECRUITMENT

Russia's stealth/crypto mobilization continues. This week an especially nefarious method was revealed: Indian nationals claim that they were promised high paying jobs in Dubai or the offer to study at a prestigious university. When they left India they were stripped of their ids or travel documents and forced to sign up for the Russian military. There is a lot of skepticism of this story, and some suggest that they willfully signed up to join the military after being told they would have safe jobs far from the front lines then they started recording themselves begging for help after they realized they were to be sent to the front. The first confirmed dead Indian has already been confirmed.

Ukraine continues to struggle with getting a mobilization bill passed.




STRIKES BEHIND THE LINES

Russia continues their missile campaign. This week they struck Odesa a lot, which is not really a military target. One day's salvos killed 12 people, 5 of which were children. Another missile landed 500 feet from Zelenskyy's and the PM of Greece's motorcade. I doubt Russia intended that, but it still caused a lot of headlines.

Ukraine continued striking Russian oil, a metallurgy facility, and today they likely hit a Russian airfield.





ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS

Russian information on the National Wealth Fund shows that Russia has already spent half of it. This wealth fund was a major source of pride for Russia and proof that it was a strong, powerful country, that could withstand anything. Russia is running out of companies to cannibalize, and sanctions continue to increase, meaning that Russia is likely to go through the remaining fund at an even faster rate. Turkey and India have both closed ports to Russian oil. Russia already announced that for 6 months they won't be selling gasoline as they deal with internal pressure to supply farmers and also do "maintenance". They had already done a similar pause last year for "maintenance". Now they are agreeing to abide by OPEC+'s crude oil cuts in order to drive the price up, however Russia was already selling at a discount that is below the target price. This seems to suggest that this is all posturing and that Ukraine's strike campaign on their industry is having the desired results.




NATO

After over a year (maybe almost 2?) of being a bargaining chip for Turkey and then Hungary, Sweden was finally allowed into NATO. There's hope that some of their fleet of Gripens will be handed over to Ukraine's air force as they are perfect for Ukraine, probably even better suited than F-16s. As far as Putin's claim that he had to invade Ukraine in order to fight NATO expansion... well Russia has doubled their land border with NATO through Finland, and then ended over 200 years of Swedish neutrality and completely locked themselves out of the Baltic Sea.



MILITARY AID

Norway sent $150 million to procure the ammo found by Czech Republic, and then their president announced that the goal was met. Shortly after Russian soldiers complained about increased rates of fire from Ukraine suggesting that Ukraine is allowing more ammo to reach the front line, likely because they have this on the way. 800k - 1 million shells (it sounds like 200k more was found) is a huge amount since Ukraine is likely firing less than 2k a day at the moment.

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ukrainians assault trench and take POW
2. Desertcross "golf cart" hit by artillery (Russia began advancing in these lightly armored vehicles which look like golf carts like week)
3. A look at the growing use of drones on the battlefield. (FWIW I don't agree with this guy's assessment, I think it's off due to what kind of footage gets released)







WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY

The Guardian article "Ukraine war briefing: Russian forces occupying Ukraine use torture as ‘policy’, says UN expert"


https://www.theguardian.com/world/20...says-un-expert








STRIKES IN RUSSIA


1. Large fire at St Petersburg airport
2. Gas pipeline hit deep in Russia





RUSSIAN ECONOMY AND SANCTIONS

1. UK MOD states Russia's ban of gasoline sales likely from Ukraine's drone strikes
2. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIAN Ruble is Dead as a Global Currency as Russia Uses YUAN for Trade & Russian Company Debt"







MILITARY AID

1. NBC article "House Republicans consider a loan program for some Ukraine aid"
2. German poll majority of Germans don't want Taurus sent to Ukraine
3. NYT article "Mutual Frustrations Arise in U.S.-Ukraine Alliance" on Ukraine's obvious upset about military aid, and USA being upset about Zelenskyy allegedly forcing multiple fronts










RECRUITMENT

1. DW article "India raids network sending citizens to fight for Russia"

https://www.dw.com/en/india-raids-ne...sia/a-68471100







AVDIIVKA AND OTHER FRONTS

NYT article "Russia’s Advance Around Avdiivka Loses Momentum After Quick Gains"


https://www.nytimes.com/2024/03/09/w...-villages.html





NBC article "U.S. warns of imminent Moscow attack by 'extremists,' urges citizens to avoid crowds"

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/us-news...wds-rcna142401






DEFENSIVE LINES


1. Recently built Russian fortifications in occupied Ukraine









HYBRID WARFARE

1. Foreign Policy article "The West Is Still Oblivious to Russia’s Information War"
2. GREAT LISTEN Mark Galeotti's podcast on Russia turning to organized crime now that they've had 600 diplomats expelled from Europe, 400 of which were likely spies, how they likely were used to murder the helicopter pilot in Spain, how they kept LPR and DPR afloat as independent states, getting past sanctions (I have no idea how important this is as far as the war goes, but it was fascinating imo)









Acceptance speech for 20 Days in Mariupol winning best documentary. Everyone should watch it.








1. Commander of Russian navy replaced
2. New commander for Ukraine's 47th Mechanized
3. Commander of Air Force for Ukraine replaced

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Ukrainian drones striking equipment transports at night
2. Ukrainian Mig-29 shot down
3. Russian portable drone jammer
4. SAM striking a Shahed
5. Ukraine strikes a grounded ship they claim was being used by Russian command








AVDIIVKA AND OTHER FRONTS

1. Russian describing Russia's tactics west of Avdiivka
2. GREAT READ Analysis of all major fronts









MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION

1. CSIS article "The European Union Charts Its Own Path for European Rearmament"
2. NYT article "Ukraine Could Deploy F-16s as Soon as July, but Only a Few"
3. Reuters article "Trump won't give money to Ukraine if elected, says Hungary's Orban"
4. Kofman saying that the limiting factor for Russian advances this year is likely to be equipment












WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY

1. UK MOD on Russification in the occupied territories

BATTLE CLIPS


1. Drone returns to base for a pit stop
2. Multiple S-300 systems hit by HIMARS






WAR CRIMES AND CRIMES AGAINST HUMANITY

ISW on Russia increasing use of chemical weapons dropped by drones






STRIKES IN RUSSIA


1. Another refinery struck
2. Russian partisans attacking Belgorod (really doubt this is much, seems like psy ops for the election)
3. Partisans in Kursk
4. BBC article "Ukraine-based Russian armed groups claim raids into Russia"
5. Russian MOD making outrageous claims about casualties







RUSSIAN STRIKES IN UKRAINE

Apartment building hit, injuring at least 41









MILITARY AID AND PRODUCTION

1. Pentagon sending 155mm cluster munitions
2. A look at projected 155mm output in USA
3. GREAT LISTEN Zeihan video "Russian Bombs Get an Upgrade (FAB-1500 to Glide Bomb) || Peter Zeihan"







DEFENSIVE LINES


1. Fortifications being built near Kharkiv













Russian transport plane has an engine on fire, loses the engine then crashes killing 15 (several videos in comments)

RECRUITMENT

1. GREAT READ ft article "Ukraine needs 500,000 military recruits. Can it raise them?"
2. GREAT READ Ukraine MOD on mobilization









PEACE TALKS

1. Putin saying that now that he has the advantage there's no way he'd engage in peace talks






ECONOMY

1. Fourth Lukoil top manager dead in the last two years






REPLACEMENTS

1. FT article "Russia sacks naval commander after humiliating Black Sea losses"
2. Rumors that Gerasimov has been replaced after he has not been seen for a long time







1. Two Ukrainian helicopters struck
2. Strike on hangar that supplied them
3. Two dead pilots
4. Geolocation of where and what could have enabled this attack to happen

War on the Rocks remains the best resource for the war. Here's cliffs for their most recent episode:

Overview

In general WOTR tries to get a broad overview. They try to talk to the worst, best and everything in the middle to get a full picture. For example the most poorly funded drone unit, the best funded, and medium. Technology and tactics evolves very quickly which is why they try to go every few months.

Ukraine's three major challenges remain the same as when they last went to Ukraine in November: Manpower, fortifications, and ammunition. Military is working to stabilize, but the situation has grown worse.





Manpower

This is issue #1 and likely to be the decisive factor this year. Ukraine has the same problems that WOTR saw in November. Counteroffensive went on longer than it should have. Ukraine was still doing assaults far beyond the point that is was clear they did not have enough forces to achieve any kind of significant breakthrough. They were running through infantry, and resorted to pulling artillerymen, drivers, UAV operators and other roles to make assault groups which were not effective. Ukraine over extended itself.

At that time ammo deliveries drastically slowed down as well. It was always known this would be happen. Ukraine received a one time allotment of ammo enabled by South Korea sending ammo to USA so USA could backfill Ukraine. The rate that they were reduced was greater than expected though.

Either of these is a big problem. Both of these combined, and adding a lack of fortifications, is a major problem.


Mobilization

Lack of infantry at all levels. Losses from November have not been replaced. This situation is only going to get worse, and especially with a lack of ammunition.


Infantry have been there for 2 years. FPVs, glide bombs, etc. makes being on the front extremely high intensity which leads to exhaustion. A lack of rotation is a real problem.

Mobilization has not been fixed. The lack of mobilization in September and October is creating many of the problems Ukraine faces now. Lack of mobilization now will lead to problems two to three months from now.



Casualties

Infantry gets the majority of casualties, and those stack up to create problems. A battalion of 300+ might only have 50-60 infantry. This results in force fragmentation: an incohesive force because in a battle like Avdiivka the person in charge isn't commanding their troops, they're commanding a host of units that are piecemealed together in order to fill needed roles.



Future offensive

Mobilization seems stalled. Once it's done it will take months to train, and even that won't be enough for another offensive. We've seen that a few months training isn't enough to launch an offensive. This means that a 2025 offensive is extremely unlikely.









Fortifications

Ukraine doesn't have dedicated engineer brigades. Farming takes place close to the frontlines, so regional authorities have to be involved.

Ukraine is now actively building fortifications. Ukraine's fortifications are not going to look the same way that Russia's do. It looks like they are building strongpoints, not massive lines.














Russia's problem and strength

Russia seems to have contracted several hundred thousand troops last year. With the money they have offered it seems like they have a major manpower advantage. They seem to have enough ammunition. Their limiting factor is equipment. They cannot afford to keep throwing away a combined arms army worth of equipment like they did at Avdiivka.

Russia can mass troops, ammunition, glide bombs, and equipment in one area, but cannot do it across the frontline. They need all of these to push, if they can't keep these numbers up they cannot advance.

Russia has a lot of glide bombs. They are also able to shoot them from father and father away, originally they were fired from 50-60km, now it's 60-80km. They are reasonably accurate, and so big that they don't need to be extremely accurate.


Russian recruitment

Russia probably managed to recruit 300k troops in 2023. Since they were able to recruit so many they could sustain major losses in Avdiivka. It is likely that Russia can keep recruiting at this rate and continue doing these costly assaults.

One of the big questions was "How are they motivating units to go on assaults?" The answer is executions and threats of executions. It was well known that Wagner was executing prisoners, it's clear that Russia is still doing this now.

As long as a squad leader is alive, the squad will fight. If the squad leader dies then it's possible they break.

Morale is bad, but ultimately Russian forces did not break and often were fighting to the death.









Big picture

Russia is firing at 5:1, and will have a fires advantage for the entire year most likely. If Ukraine's manpower issue is not fixed then it's possible that Russia has some breakthroughs this year which would look very similar to Kharkiv but in reverse.

BATTLE CLIPS

1. Artillery and a Bradley take out three armored vehicles
2. Lancet strikes Ukrainian IFV








STRIKES IN RUSSIA

1. Another refinery on fire
2. Bloomberg article "Ukraine Hits Third Russian Refinery in Escalating Drone Strikes"
3. People fleeing Belgorod and Kursk
4. ABC article "Putin claims waves of drones striking within Russia are Ukrainian attempt at election interference"
5. Russian millblogger on the fighting in Belgorod (extremely unlikely)
6. Artillery duels in Belgorod
7. Old video of Prig explaining the importance of Belgorod
8. Progression of the operation over the last day









MILITARY AID AND MILITARY PRODUCTION

1. France to (only) produce 60k 155mm rounds a year in 2025
2. Foreign Policy article "The U.S. Military Is Running Short on Ammunition—and So Is Ukraine"

3. Important parts of Macron's speech today
4. Le Monde article "War in Ukraine: the metamorphosis of Emmanuel Macron, dove turned hawk"
5. The Hill article "Johnson signals shift on Ukraine to GOP senators"
6. Ap article "House Democrats and centrist Republicans launch separate efforts to force a vote on Ukraine aid"










PEACE TALKS

Medvedev's 7 point plan for peace talks