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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Russian Invasion of Ukraine

02-20-2024 , 02:44 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

1. ATGM followed by 25mm cannon from Bradley
2. HIMARS strike on Russian UAV team
3. Ukrainian FPV stopped by a fishing net

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MAJOR LOSSES

1. Russia has 2 more planes shot down


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RECRUITMENT

1. Ukrainian talks about the realities of being undermanned
2. CNN video on Nepalese mercenaries used by Russia

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SANCTIONS

1. 20 minute video on what has happened to the 50 tankers sanctioned for carrying Russian oil
2. ft article "Gazprom grapples with collapse in sales to Europe"
3. European natural gas prices continue falling

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RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

1. GREAT READ WaPo article "Kremlin runs disinformation campaign to undermine Zelensky, documents show"
2. GREAT READ EU vs Disinfo article "Hate speech and calls for genocide in Putin’s Russia"
3. UK MOD on high profile Russians being forced to do Russian propaganda. Includes one of the people from the "Almost naked" party.


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MILITARY AID

1. Sweden announced they will send a $7 billion aid package

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ASSASSINATIONS

The pilot who defected to Russia with the helicopter found dead in Spain

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
02-21-2024 , 02:41 AM
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. Ukrainian drones hit warehouse with equipment (map of how close to the frontline this was in comments
2. Russian BMP hits mine
3. Video of a failed assault on Avidiivka (assuming it's archival)

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WAR CRIMES

1. Ukraine accuses Russia of executing POWs after they took Zenit
2. Longer article on it
3. BBC article "Avdiivka: Russia accused of executing prisoners of war after Ukraine withdraws"







AVDIIVKA

1. UK MOD on fall of Avdiivka
2. Russians looting
3. Video and map of failed attack after Russians continue in this sector
4. Attack on Vuhledar, a town with similar importance as Avdiivka which Russia has been trying to take for a long time as well. Could be Russia's next goal
5. NYT article "Hundreds of Ukrainian Troops Feared Captured or Missing in Chaotic Retreat"
6. Kyiv Independent article "Ukrainian soldiers recall retreat from Avdiivka – on foot, leaving their wounded behind"




Spoiler:






https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/u...ka-russia.html











DNIPRO

Shoigu claims Kynky cleared of Ukrainians, Russian soldier dismisses claim (wouldn't be surprised if Ukraine pulls back soon now)

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RECRUITMENT

1. Article on Indians coerced to fight for Russia

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ARRESTS AND ASSASSINATIONS


1. The Guardian article "Russia arrests US dual national over alleged $51 Ukrainian charity donation"
2. Video of her being led around blindfolded
3. NYT article "Russian Pilot Who Defected to Ukraine Is Believed Dead in Spain"


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10 YEAR ANNIVERSARY SINCE INVASION OF CRIMEA

1. ISW on important events
2. U24 on Revolution of Dignity and 10 years at war

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NAVALNY

1. Meduza article "Vladimir Putin upgrades rank of Russian Penitentiary Service deputy head three days after Navalny’s death in prison"

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HYBRID WARFARE

1. GREAT READ RUSI article The Threat from Russia’s Unconventional Warfare Beyond Ukraine, 2022–24

Quote:
This report is divided into three chapters. Chapter I considers the establishment and growth of the GRU’s Special Activities Service, and the lines of effort being pursued to re-establish a support apparatus in Europe. Chapter II concerns the evolution of Russia’s so-called ‘Wagner Group’, its successor Expeditionary Corps, and the strategy for Russia’s expanding network of relationships in Africa. Chapter III examines Russia’s use of its Muslim minority for diplomacy in the Middle East and Europe and, specifically, the role of the Kadyrovtsy as a vector of Russian influence.
2. PM of Estonia says they stopped a hybrid attack
3. List of recent GRU efforts in Italy
4. Reuters article "Finland says thousands of migrants are seeking to enter via Russia"
5. Polish farmers blockade Ukrainian grain and spill it, reports that they have pro Putin/Russia flags
6. GOOD READ Economist article "Russian spies are back—and more dangerous than ever"

Quote:
Russia’s special services quickly divided Mr Prigozhin’s sprawling military-criminal enterprise among themselves. The fsb would keep domestic businesses, and the svr the media arms, such as the troll farms which interfered in America’s presidential election in 2016. The gru got the foreign military bits, split into a Volunteer Corps for Ukraine and an Expeditionary Corps, managed by General Averyanov, for the rest of the world. The latter missed its target of recruiting 20,000 troops by the end of last year, says rusi, though its strength is “steadily rising”. There have been hiccups: Mr Prigozhin’s son, who mystifyingly remains alive and at liberty, offered Wagner troops to the Rosgvardia, Russia’s national guard, prompting a bidding war between the guard and the gru, according to the authors.




Spoiler:





https://www.reuters.com/world/europe...ia-2024-02-20/










1. Russian telegram reports a strike 7km into occupied territory
2. Russian telegram reports 65 casualties
3. GRAPHIC Potential footage of the result

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
02-22-2024 , 12:38 AM
BATTLE CLIPS AND ANALYSIS

1. GRAPHIC Another strike on grouped Russian soldiers (insane footage)
2. Geolocation of the 4 strikes
3. Drone takes out fixed wing drone


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MILITARY AID

Reuters article "Exclusive: Iran sends Russia hundreds of ballistic missiles"



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RECRUITMENT

1. WSJ article "Ukraine’s Military Spy Chief Says Russia Will Struggle to Keep Up the Fight" but also says Russia is able to recruit more in 2 months than Ukraine killed at Avdiivka

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SANCTIONS

1. How much heavy equipment and car sales from UK to Russia fell after sanctions
2. How much heavy equipment and car sales from UK to Kyrgyzstan rose after sanctions
3. ft article "EU agrees first sanctions on Chinese and Indian companies for Russia war links"
4. Western sanctions against head of the penal colony where Navalny was killed after Putin promoted them


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RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

Quote:
Originally Posted by Bluegrassplayer

AVDIIVKA

5. Girkin's ally on the losses in Avdiivka


Spoiler:


1. This guy was a very vocal milblogger before Girkin was arrested for being too pro-Russian regarding soldiers. After making his remarks on Avdiivka about the losses and casualties there, Murz was forced to delete it. he wrote a long post complaining about how he was threatened that if he didn't remove the post then his unit would stop receiving supplies and essentially be sent on suicide missions. He then committed suicide.

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HYBIRD WARFARE

1. BBC article "Alexander Smirnov: FBI source accused of Biden lies 'linked to Russian intelligence'"
2. (Not really Russian hybrid warfare but the absurdity is too much to not bring up) NBC article "Hunter Biden's lawyers say prosecutors confused a picture of sawdust with cocaine" The pic in the article is clearly sawdust


Spoiler:




https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/jus...ine-rcna139656
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
02-23-2024 , 12:57 AM
BATTLE CLIPS

Ukrainian CASEVAC of wounded soldiers using M113 armored vehicle (mentioned below that they're to receive hundreds more of these)

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RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. GREAT READ The Telegraph article "Russia is losing the economic war: the West must not lose its nerve now" covers Russia's economy and the West's defense production

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/business...ot-lose-nerve/



WAR CRIMES AND HUMAN RIGHTS OFFENSES

1. NBC article "Russian troops raped and tortured children in Ukraine, U.N. panel says"
2. Public hearing on Russian war crimes
3. Foreign Policy article "There Must Be a Reckoning for Russian War Crimes"

Quote:
It is important to understand what Russian occupation means in Ukraine. It is not merely a question of switching the language from Ukrainian to Russian in schools or Ukrainian flags being replaced by Russian flags. Occupation means oppression, torture, disappearances, indoctrination, and kidnapped children. It means the eradication of one’s culture and identity.

Spoiler:

https://www.nbcnews.com/news/world/r...says-rcna49168









MILITARY AID

1. ABC article "US estimates Ukraine military shortages could grow catastrophic by late March"
2. Ukraine expected to receive many more M 113s, shown in the battle clip above

Spoiler:

https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/us-e...y?id=107169502






ROBOTYNE, AVDIIVKA AND OTHER BATTLEFRONTS

1. UK MOD on Russia's renewed efforts in Robotyne
2. ISW on Russia's 4 main operations
3. GOOD READ Pravda article "The last days of Avdiivka. What led to the withdrawal of Ukrainian forces from the city and how it happened" Covers the pipe used to attack Avdiivka and assault on Zenit


Spoiler:







https://www-pravda-com-ua.translate...._x_tr_pto=wapp





SANCTIONS

1. CNN article "Justice Department announces criminal and civil actions against sanctioned Russian oligarchs"

https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/22/p...lin/index.html







PROPAGANDA

1. Zelenskyy interview with Fox News


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NAVALNY

1. CNN article on Navalny's mother being shown the body and asked to have a "secret burial" for it
2. Over 500 people who attended Navalny memorials forced to enlist

Spoiler:

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-68374769







France's Defense Minister claims "Russian operators threatened to shoot down manned French aircraft on patrol over the Black Sea, in international airspace"

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Transnistria supposedly to vote on whether or not to ask Moscow to annex them on Feb 28th (I've hardly followed this)

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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
02-23-2024 , 08:56 PM
1. Russian telegram claims another A-50 was shot down
2. Video of a plane deploying flares then getting hit. Scroll down for video of burning wreckage and map of where it fell, a different angle, another tg channel saying it was an A 50



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Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
02-24-2024 , 04:21 AM
RUSSIAN ECONOMY

1. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIAN Wartime Measures & Technology Sanctions Inflicting Long Term Damage on Russian Economy" the portion dealing with the title has been summarized elsewhere, but this is also a good summary of it. The part of Yandex, Russia's Google, is great.


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MILITARY AID


1. ABC article "War-weary Ukraine shows renewed interest in Australia's aging Abrams tanks"
2. Discharge petition to force Ukraine aid bill being threatened
3. NBC article "Republican dysfunction drives a wave of House retirements"

4. ft article "European capitals seek $1.5bn in fallback plan to arm Ukraine"

Quote:
Ukrainian foreign minister Dmytro Kuleba told EU counterparts on Monday that Ukraine needed 2.5mn artillery shells this year but that the bloc had only sent 400,000. He pleaded with them to find a solution fast.
Quote:
Europe has been slow to ramp up its artillery production because national governments and EU and Nato entities were slow to sign contracts with manufacturers, making it harder for companies to access finance to expand their facilities.
Quote:
In a paper for the International Institute for Strategic Studies, analysts, Franz-Stefan Gady and Michael Kofman concluded that Ukraine would need 75,000-90,000 artillery shells a month “to sustain the war defensively, and more than double that — 200,000-250,000 — for a major offensive”.


Spoiler:




https://www.nbcnews.com/politics/con...nts-rcna139642

https://www.ft.com/content/428fdef6-...6-9845fcc045f9









SOLDIERS SPEAKING

Long thread on the extrajudicial punishments and torture mobiks receive, rising desertion, and suicide charges

https://threadreaderapp.com/thread/1...173988755.html









STRIKES IN RUSSIA

1. Drones hit Russia's largest steel mill

Spoiler:







NAVALNY


CNN article "Navalny’s mother told to agree to secret funeral or have her son buried at penal colony, spokesperson says"


https://edition.cnn.com/2024/02/23/e...ntl/index.html





HYBRID WARFARE

ISW article "WARNING: TRANSNISTRIA MAY ORGANIZE A REFERENDUM ON ANNEXATION TO RUSSIA TO SUPPORT RUSSIAN HYBRID OPERATION AGAINST MOLDOVA"



https://www.understandingwar.org/bac...russian-hybrid









RANDOM

I decided to start including some random things that didn't quite fit in the previous week.

1. This is a diary/blog post of someone discussing life 2 years when Russia invaded vs today. It's a really heartfelt look at life away from the frontlines where the author is full of both hope and fear.
2. Politico article "Roiled by scandal, Hungary names new president"
3. Volunteer in Ukraine giving an angry video message about Ukraine aid
4. Daily KOS article "A right-wing family moved to Russia to escape 'LGBTQ, trans,' but now they're 'ready' to 'get out'"
5. Timothy Snyder on the parallels between Ukraine and WW2
6. Le Monde article "Ukraine's war widows: 'None of us was prepared to pay such a high price for our country'"
7. Grenade launcher goes off in Melitopol
8. NYT article "Trump Again Compares Himself to Navalny While Discussing Legal Woes"
9. Lithuanian Minister of Foreign Affairs on the various treaties which failed to protect Ukraine
10. Estonian intelligence service on Russian propaganda narratives




Spoiler:

https://www.thenewhumanitarian.org/f...-two-years-war

https://www.politico.eu/article/roil...new-president/








https://www.lemonde.fr/en/internatio...6535062_4.html



https://www.nytimes.com/2024/02/20/u...-fox-news.html




Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
02-24-2024 , 06:41 AM
Last Saturday I told myself that I'd start posting my thoughts on each week the following weekend and here we are. At the time I didn't realize that it would fall on the 2nd anniversary of the full scale invasion.


There is a good chance that this week is the start of the low point of the war for Ukraine. Avdiivka fell, Johnson sent the House of Representatives on recess for 2 weeks without figuring out aid, Navalny was murdered, and Tucker continues to peddle Putin's propaganda to far right Americans even as Putin threw him under the bus for their failure of an interview. It did manage to end on a good note though with Russia destroying another one of their A-50 command planes, bringing the total amount of Russian planes downed this week up to (I think) 7. Russia had only 7 of these command planes left, they cost over 300 million, they are capable of seeing battle movement over 600km away with their advanced radar system, and they have highly trained professionals on board. Currently they are believed to be irreplaceable due to sanctions, so it is a decent win on an otherwise awful week.


AVDIIVKA

Ukraine finally withdrew from Avdiivka, which I believe they should have done a long time ago. There's a lot of rumors on why it took so long for Ukraine to withdraw, a lot of which we found out this week were exacerbated by Russian propaganda. There were lots of rumors of a rift between Zaluzhnyi and Zelenskyy, which was apparently stoked by Russia's propaganda machine. It seems this rift existed, but it's unlikely it was anything close to what the media portrayed. Ultimately Zaluzhnyi stepped down and Syrkski took over. Syrski has a negative reputation due to his defense of Bakhmut. The defense started off positively until it was surrounded and the excellent attrition ratio became far more even. Furthermore it is being argued that Ukraine's failed counteroffensive likely could have taken Tokmak if it weren't for the offensive near Bakhmut, which is believed to be politically motivated and forced by Zelenskyy. Zaluzhnyi's removal is not anything out of the ordinary following a major failed operation, but it certainly leaves a bad taste that he might have been handicapped by the person forcing his replacement.

Following the withdraw from Avdiivka there began to be rumors of a botched retreat. NYT had a pretty irresponsible article claiming up to a thousand Ukrainians being left behind. Ukraine claimed 25, which was equally ridiculous. On top of that there was evidence that some of the soldiers who surrendered were executed.

The timing of the retreat seemed to be rather suspicious as well. Zaluzhnyi could have, and likely did, want to retreat earlier. It seems like Syrksi was put in charge to try to hold Avdiivka until Putin's election in order to deprive him of a political win, but Syrski saw the situation was hopeless as well and ordered the retreat. That is entirely speculation on my part though. I doubt that anyone in Ukraine or Russia much cares about Avdiivka as far as political wins goes and it will be of limited use to Putin.

After Avdiivka's fall, Russia has continued west, although with limited results. It's still unclear where Ukraine has set up their next line of defense. Meanwhile Russia is also attacking near Robotyne, which Ukraine took during the counteroffensive. This will be exceptionally difficult to defend, but also of limited use to Russia. Russia is continuing to attack near Kupyansk, and Krynky. I think that now that Avdiivka has fallen Ukraine will likely withdraw from Krynky as well.




Elections

Exactly one month before Putin's election, Navalny was murdered. Shortly after another ultranationalist committed suicide or was murdered for complaining about Russian casualties at Avdiivka. Another anti-war candidate was barred from joining the ballot, and said he was shocked he hasn't been thrown out of a window yet. Following Navalny's death over 500 people were arrested for holding memorials and at least some were given military summons and will likely be sent to the front line. Putin has made it clear that he is not going to allow any discussion of the war occur during elections unless it's his narrative. He's also culling anyone who will not vote for him. Why is this an important thing when Putin is guaranteed to win? Here is Thomas Graham's take from Getting Russia Right:

Quote:
In post-Soviet Russia, one critical way in which the president demonstrates his mastery of the political system, and earns the confidence of the elites, is oddly enough through largely uncontested elections, especially presidential ones. Because the winner is known in advance, turnout, rather than share of the vote, is the key indicator of the president's strength. He has to demonstrate that he can mobilize the support of a population that he otherwise seeks to keep passive out of considerations of regime stability by bringing them out to vote in essentially meaningless contests. Successful mobilization depends to a great degree on the active efforts of officials at all levels of government, as well as the leaders of businesses and civic organizations. If the turnout is within an appropriate range, generally around 70 percent for presidential elections, the president will have demonstrated his sway with both the elites and the population as a whole.

Elections thus send critical messages to the elites about the president’s strength. They can provide confidence that he can protect them against the masses, while managing their own competition effectively to maintain the stability of the regime. Political polling serves a similar function. An appropriately high popularity rating for the president, and a sufficiently wide margin of superiority over other leaders, minimizes the risk that the elites will lose confidence in the president. Falsification of results, ironically, does not undermine confidence in the leader, as long as it is not flagrant and excessive. To the contrary, it is yet another indication of the president’s mastery of the system.


This is what he had to say regarding Navalny:


Quote:
In particular, Putin has worked the liberals from linking up with the socio-economic discontent to create a massive protest movement akin to the one that helped topple the Soviet regime. This is one reason for his harsh crackdown on Alexey Navalny, who, uniquely among the non-system liberal opposition leaders, had a knack for connecting with broader segments of the population. The approach Putin has used with noteworthy success is to paint these opposition leaders as tools of the West, while promoting patriotism among the population as a whole.






MILITARY AID

The Munich Conference occurred this week, which I hardly reported on since there was hardly anything to report. The conference was extremely depressing. While Ukraine has signed security agreements with many countries which promises aid, the fact is that Europe was too slow to launch their military industry for that to actually mean anything at this moment. Europe has sent 400k of the million promised 155mm rounds, and due to France they have not looked into buying them from elsewhere. Czech Republic said to hell with that and has been leading the charge by finding ammo elsewhere and requesting the $1.5bln required to buy it. The other two major wins out of this conference was Denmark handing over all of their artillery, and Sweden sending $700 million worth of military aid to Ukraine. It seems like they will be joining NATO soon, and they will be a powerhouse. Their only concern is Russia and they are as about as pro-Ukraine as the Baltic states.

Meanwhile Ukrainians are sending reports back that they see groupings of 5 Russians coming at them but due to lack of ammo they cannot fire artillery at them. Jack Watling said that the issues caused by ammo shortages "will initially be felt slowly and then felt fast". It's terrifying to think that this is the "slow" part. Even worse is the fact that air defense ammunition will be running out as well. I stopped reporting on Russian strikes against Ukraine cities because for the most part their air defenses have been shooting down whatever Russia launches. It felt pretty awful to stop reporting that "only" 5 were killed in the previous day's strike, but it stopped being newsworthy, much like the now daily drone strikes against Russia's military complex. It's scary to think that the numbers of civilian deaths might rise drastically and I'll have to begin posting them again.

USA is somehow on recess for 2 weeks. Johnson's campaign was apparently funded by a Russian company. The same far right reps who are stalling aid were the ones behind the Hunter Biden case, which began due to a FBI informant who was fed the info by a Russian spy. The main way to get the aid bill on the floor, despite Johnson and the far right refusing to do so, is a month long process.

Production in Europe and USA is ramping up. Rheinmetall has upped production significantly, as have other European companies. USA opened 2 more factories for 155mm ammo. It is a serious possibility that Ukraine has more ammo than Russia in 2025, but what happens in 2024, and especially the next few months, is a major question. It seems realistic that this is the low point of the war for Ukraine. I certainly hope it is.
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote
Yesterday , 12:14 PM
YEAR 3 OF 3 DAY SPECIAL MILITARY OPERATION

1. Zelenskyy's message to his people
2. Tendar on the anniversary
3. Anders Puck Nielson with optimistic and pessimistic predictions for this year
4. Joe Blogs video "RUSSIA - Putin's '3 Day War' Enters Third Year as Russian Economy is Devastated by Costs & Sanctions"
5. UK MOD on initial attack and now

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ZELENSKYY

1. Comparison of where the interviews were filmed


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MILITARY PRODUCTION


UK gov article "UK to boost Ukraine's artillery reserves with £245 million munitions package"

https://www.gov.uk/government/news/u...itions-package





MILITARY AID

CBC article "Trudeau signs $3-billion security deal for Ukraine on 2nd anniversary of Russian invasion"

https://www.cbc.ca/amp/1.7124330





RUSSIAN PROPAGANDA

Ukrainian woman is used in deep fakes to sell pro-Russian propaganda in China

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ZAPORIZHZHIA

1. Result of Russian BMPs which made a charge in Robotyne
2. DeepState on the "banzai attack" strategy Russians are conducting here
3. Russian armor attack
4. Daily KOS article "Ukraine: Robotyne is Falling"


Spoiler:






https://www.dailykos.com/stories/202...yne-is-Falling





NAVALNY

NBC article "Russian opposition leader Alexei Navalny’s body returned to his mother, spokesperson says"


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HYBRID WARFARE

1. Le Figaro article "Stars of David spray painted in Paris: the operation was led by the Russian FSB"

Quote:
The mysterious blue Stars of David tagged on walls in Paris and the suburbs in November 2023 were commissioned by the Russian security services, according to a source close to the matter at AFP, confirming information from Le Monde .
2. NBC artic "Former U.S. spies warned in 2020 that the Hunter Biden scandal had Russian fingerprints. They feel vindicated now."


https://www.lefigaro.fr/internationa...russe-20240223


https://www.nbcnews.com/news/amp/rcna140240
Russian Invasion of Ukraine Quote

      
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