Villain is 55/18/1.1 over 160 hands, quite bad

Full Tilt Poker $3/$6 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with 8 7
1 fold, CO raises, 2 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) 7 9 K (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero calls

Turn: (3.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, CO bets, Hero raises, CO calls

River: (7.25 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero ?

do we have a valuebet here and what's the plan if raised

Definitely bet.

I would C/C, mainly because I cant B/F
If you bet this I think you should consider folding to a raise from this guy.

I bet/fold here with 87. Give me K9 or some other better two-pair and I might bet/call.

I don't mind a bet/fold. It is very opponent dependent like everything else and this player will definitely pay off with one pair. You clearly don't need to give him credit for a flush yet and he does not seem sharp enough to reraise 2 pair here for light value. I don't like checking, but against a player like this i dont want to fold the best hand to a river bluff, i'm kind of on the fence here.

but raising any rivered 2 pair isn't sharppppppp

In a sense, the river is not really super-scary since Villain has done nothing much to represent a T, a 5, or hearts (although the presence of any of those cards in Villain's hand could've been a factor in his turn call). FWIW, though, Stove tells me we're only winning 59 percent versus a random hand.

Anecdotal evidence to be sure, but I've been seeing too much river bluff-raising around me lately to consider bet-folding two pair against a LAG in a pot of this size. At the table, I would probably bet-call, but check-calling seems like a consideration too and it might be the way to go. The main problem, though, is that Villain really should know you're not check-folding the river after checkraising the turn.

I really dont like b/f'ing these guys and its my experience they bet a lot here if we check.

So my play is to just c/c because he is bad and somewhat aggro.


Vs a good player I just b/c because thats what you do in these spots.

Vs a predictable player who never bluff raises river b/f'ing is the obvious play.

What he said

if you never call, how do you know he never bluff raises?

This might be a foreign concept to a person who always 10 tables, but believe it or not it is possible to tell if a player is highly unlikely to bluff/raise this river even if we never call him. This is the part where I'm supposed to write "DUCY?" but that's a little too deuchebaggery for my taste.

the problem with this logic is simple

take a look at me, a simple nittag.

i never raise here unless i have it.

but i do bluff raise here.

so, you are banged

DUCY?

There's never a problem with my logic. I was just pointing out that your riddle:

Has a very easy answer. It's called paying attention to hands you're not involved in.

I have a 1 question quiz for you ILP


T/F I pay attention to other players when I'm playing poker

[ ] True
[ ] False

Generally true, but that's completely irrelevant. I still have the right to make fun of you for posing a riddle that has a very easy answer.

I should change my answer to I really dunno what to do if a good player raises but we should bet against him.

Its a leak I am comfortable having but I dont have it down when to bluff raise rivers and I find it hard to see what worse hands he should turn into a bluff.


@ HIP

Meh you are right. Its hard to know but I do think there are some signs you can use. Solid (or non solid) TAGs who multitable a lot and generally play straightforward wont bluff raise rivers very often.

I get bluff raised on 5th a lot more by 41/15 types than 27/20 types. Perhaps because most 27/20's feel like me: namely they dont really know when to find the good spots to bluff raise so they just dont?


In any case we derailed this thread now. I believe that betting river against bad and aggro players is a mistake in this spot because they bet for us. Its like people who c-bet the turn with A high on KT35 vs 45/15 bet-when-checked-to-guys.

Vs good players we have to bet because they will check worse hands behind that calls a bet.