villain is 50/0/1.0 over 162 hands and is lolbad. i seriously don't know whether to 3bet the river, and there are very few spots when i have top boat and say that. am i just being a nit or am i right that his line strongly suggests quads?


Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

CO posts a big blind (1 SB)

Pre Flop: (2.5 SB) Hero is SB with Q Q
UTG raises, 1 fold, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, UTG calls, CO calls

Flop: (10 SB) 2 6 2 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, CO raises, Hero 3-bets, UTG calls, CO calls

Turn: (9.5 BB) 2 (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, CO calls

River: (12.5 BB) Q (3 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls, CO raises...

I think calling is fine. This is a weird spot since his range is probably so hard to actually figure out... but he'll have a ton of 2s in his range which he'll slowplay, and he won't be raising all his Qxs on the river all the time. It's also 3 ways so just go for the overcall... don't fold.

meh, ton of 2s can't be right, but the third player makes it close. i'd probably still 3-bet because even 50% vpip isn't coldcalling a bunch of 2x hands and playing them postflop like this. the lame thing is that if the turn were a 9 or something, you'd know for sure he'd never have trips, but the "OMG QUADS" factor makes the turn play completely standard even for the rare fish who would actually raise the flop.

I think we're ahead most of the time here, but I just call the raise because if we are ahead we'll very often get just as much value from a wtf-overcall from UTG as from 3betting. And if by some weird chance villian has quads a 3bet is going to get capped and we'll lose two extra BB.

I don't think you get more value from 3-betting here than by calling, unless UTG is lolbad, too. Either way you're looking to fish out one more BB. And you definitely lose two extra BB by raising when you're beat. CO has to start capping Qx/AA/KK? here to make a 3-bet good, imo.

CO posted, so it was only 1 SB for him to call preflop. After posting, I think his calling range is ~ 100% here. I agree that the flop raise actually makes it less likely for the fish to hold a deuce.

I'd 3-bet this all day and twice on Thanksgiving. if he shows you quads, good for him. the rest of the time (the majority of times) you get that many extra bets from AA, KK, 66, case Q, etc.

snap3bet son. There is one 2 in the deck and many 6 combos each of AA-77, case Q not to mention weirdness

I think CO's hand is hard to read. But I think that DrivingDog and GiantBuddha make a good point when they say that in this still 3-handed pot we'll often win just as much by calling as we would by 3-betting.

3-betting does potentially win us an extra 4 bets at the risk of just 2, it's true, but how often is MP really going to take two more to the face, and then how often is CO going to cap worse? Quite frequently when we 3-bet, what will happen instead is that MP will fold a hand he would have overcalled with, and CO will call if we have him beat and will cap if he has quads.

GiantBuddha picked up on something I missed at first, which is that CO posted a big blind in this hand. So he figures to have 2x more often than usual, and possibly he's in fact playing all 42 combos of them. Which equals the available combos of AA-KK, JJ-77, btw.

There are 44 combos of 2x and 43 combos of Qx. 77-JJ is 30 combos (which would be bizarrely played) and AA-KK is 12 combos. Against this range you don't even have a 3-bet HU. Throw in 3 combos of 66 and it's breakeven (unless he's capping AA/KK/66, in which case it's +EV).

That's HU. 3-way calling is way better because you win the same number of bets when you're ahead and lose fewer when you're behind. If you think UTG will take two more to the face, then yeah, 3-bet all day, but otherwise, calling is clearly better.

I should have read this whole post before basically duplicating most of it. CO posting makes a huge difference here. If he cold called instead, I 3-bet all day because now is range is heavily weighted away from 2x. But with the dead money in there, I'd barely discount any 2x. Certainly not any more than I'd discount AA-KK, JJ-77.

definitely 3 bet!!! more often with these bad players you're ahead so 3ing is +EV.
And, someone 50/0/1 will tend to c/r or raise trips or in case on the turn/

I dunno, I think players with stats like 50/0/1 raise trips on the flop more often than on the turn. Maybe that's moreso players with aggression <1, but he still definitely falls into the category where a flop raise means he's got something pretty good. He might very well be aggressive enough to raise a 6 on the flop, but that sure as hell doesn't explain the river raise. I think calling is a pretty good play, especially with the overcall.

50% vpip is lose but he is not playing every 2x if he was he'd be closer to 80% imo.

unless i read it wrong, im not really that smart.