Villain is unknown, but seems like a bad tag.

Absolute Poker $10.00/$20.00 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: Hero is UTG with 9 J
Hero raises, 2 folds, BTN 3-bets, 2 folds, Hero calls

Flop: (3.75 BB) A 5 K (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets, Hero raises, BTN calls

Turn: (5.75 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets,

i think the flop c/r is fine since he can fold lower pp, but i don't see a point in betting the turn.

Pre-flop, definitely.

Once you get to the turn like that you might as well bet since you're going to call anyway. I don't see what he would peel and then decide to fold with on the turn, but TAGs do things like that sometimes.

maybe he peels for set outs

don't bet the riv UI though

I would play passively since the flop hits such a large portion of the buttons 3-betting range. Had you been in the cutoff position, his 3-bet preflop would look more like a resteal. That said, there are still hands like 77+ that you could convince to fold on the turn. I think that strong PP's like 99-QQ are going to peel the flop because you could be messing around with QJ or a flush draw. Once you bet the turn it looks more convincing that you actually have an ace or King. I don't think there are many kings out there since there are few combos of KJ, and KT does not 3-bet preflop. So his range should be KQ/KJ and 66-QQ.

I think the question here is whether or not to bet the river unimproved, whether this player will call a river bet with an underpair or KQ after you have shown so much strength postflop. I like the turn bet because the weaker pairs should fold, like 66-99, more than 15% of the time. I'm sure these fold close to 35% of the time, and you still have many outs to improve on the river if they do call.

I think if you check the turn, that makes your hand very transparent. The only good result is that button may make a wary check-behind, afraid that you are trying to sexy him with AK or 55 (these are the only sexy hands that should call preflop, KK/AA cap almost always). So your turn check may give you a free card. But I think that being able to fold a better hand here is worth investing another bet here. The question then becomes whether it's worth it to bluff the river. I think a King is always calling the river when they call the turn, but any pair less than a King could be persuaded to fold to a 3rd barrel. One line for villain to take with 99 here is to call flop and turn and then fold the river since it's so unlikely for anyone to check-raise the flop and then bet all the way without an ace or better.

c/c flop and hope to draw cheap. if you can count on him to get away from all his lower pp hands, you probably have a profitable flop c/r, bet turn. however, I think you will need to barrel off or make your hand to get him to fold.

I would like it if villian were capable of folding a K, but with the presence of the fd that is unlikely. I do play it the way you do, rationalizing that by checking the turn I am essentially giving away my hand. The thing is it doesnt really matter if I give away my hand here, bc he is never folding the river after the turn gets checked through no matter what comes.

It works better for psychological reasons when the flop is 3 way and the third player folds imo. You need a good image and choose carefully your target.

Party Poker 10/20 Hold'em (6 handed) Party Poker Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2, 9.
UTG raises, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero calls.

Flop: (6 SB) A, Q, 4 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero checks, UTG bets, SB folds, Hero raises, UTG calls.

Turn: (5 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG calls.

River: (7 BB) K (2 players)
Hero bets, UTG folds.

Final Pot: 7 BB

if i have to put in 3 barrels to get him to fold a lower pp, i think i'd rather just c/c the flop. how often do you think would a tag fold a lower pp on the flop? on the turn? on the river?
or maybe it's easier to ask - how often would YOU do that?

i would guesstimate that he folds 66,77 on the flop 85%, on the turn 10%, on the river 2%, never 3%

88 - 75%/15%/7%/3%
99 - 75%/15%/7%/3% (same as 88, because he can't have a bdfd)
TT - 65%/20%/10%/5%
JJ - 50%/30%/10%/10%
QQ - 30%/30%/20%/20%

so on average i guess it's about 65%/20%/10%/5%, i doubt it's enough for a turn or river bluff considering all the Ax,Kx combos out there. i don't think we should bet just because we'd call a bet anyway, since he will often raise us if we bet, and he can give us a free card if we check.

are my conclusions messed up because my estimates are way off?

Preflop is fine imo. Postflop depends on villain imo. Against 90% of villains I have almost no FE, especially in 3-bet pots so I'd probably just c/c the flop. If you have some FE I think your play is fine though.

pretty different situation imo, villains hand range is way less defined

I don't see many players b/f flop in a pot this size. Set outs and backdoors are enough to peel. You'll have to fire second barrel and either take it down or choke on a 3bone. Funny thing is fish will still sd QQ because it's QQ but fold 99 because they're obviously beat.

he can't fold TT if you don't bet.

If I have TT here, I know I'm not calling down.


And if he raises, it doesn't matter since you have a good draw.


Since you check raised the flop, you have to bet this turn.

are you folding Q Q on the flop?

are you calling down with this hand?


i am peeling

i am probably not calling down

nina, dont listen to other ppl in this thread, you played this hand really well if the button isn't a complete showdown monkey.

If you're always folding the turn with Q Q, then you are basically playing for set outs because I don't see anybody give up on the turn out of position once they check raise the flop. Maybe there are some, but most players will just bet when they have initiative and even on the river. If I peel there I'm probably calling to at least the river because they are more likely to give up there, especially TAGs.

As played I guess I am going all the way as the aggressor. I often see the river get folded in this situation. He could peel with any pair, he could peel a gutshot broadway draw and he could peel with a king planing on folding UI. The spew was preflop but once I get myself in this situation I think I close my eyes and barrel away and pray.

PPL generally peel the flop with an underpair, so you have to put in at least 2BB for this semibluff.

We need a guess as to what villain's pf range is {top 13% ?} and cutoffs for calling down/raising the turn are (JJ,AQ ?), but my first guess is that hip is right, you played the hand perfect.

10:1 + position + 2 outs to near-nuts + 2 nut bd draws + chance to win at river UI if you make it there = call imo.

pretty sure it is profitable to call and fold without turning a set or flush draw. classic time you can use poker stove to figure out what % of the pot you own on different subsets of turn cards

the flop call is not even close with TT-QQ with a spade.

You can turn a 12 outer if you are behind, and when you hit a set, you get 3BB, and have the nuts just about always.

If I have TT, no spade, I'm probably just going to fold to the flop c/r

it does depend on the opponent though. Some ppl will only c/r here with a draw, and not with A9, so reads come into it.