Villain is LP 40/8 who I've been running over and he's been calling down pretty light. I think he's definitely ahead on the turn, but obviously I beat all of his two pair combos on the river.

river is a c/c not a b/c right?


Absolute Poker $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 8 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is SB with K A
1 fold, UTG+1 raises, 2 folds, CO calls, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls

Flop: (12 SB) T K 4 (4 players)
Hero bets, BB calls, UTG+1 calls, CO calls

Turn: (8 BB) 9 (4 players)
Hero bets, BB raises, UTG+1 folds, CO folds, Hero calls

River: (12 BB) A (2 players)
Hero .....

if you bet the river, I don't think you should call the raise, since he will have a straight about 1 billion percent of the time.

i just c/c here

If you trust your read that Villain is ahead on the turn, then I think we should take into account that he raised preflop and realize that KT is 6 combos, T9 is only 9 more even if it doesn't have to be suited, and QJ alone is 16 combos. Toss TT/99 in there (6 more combos), and we're a clear dog to Villain's range based on your turn read.

That doesn't automatically make checking the best play (since you're OOP), but bet-folding is a hazardous thing to do in a large pot with a hand as good as top two pair (especially versus a Villain who may be getting frustrated that he's losing so many hands to you), and bet-calling seems kind of spewy if you trusted Villain's turn raise.

he didn't raise pf. He was BB and CC my 3-bet.

but he's a 40-8 he can have all the hands that the other guy listed

your hand is good enough to showdown, but bet/calling seems bad

i agree with c/c. raises from LP's make my balls shivel.
not that this changes my play so much, but i dont think its out of the the question to have a loose BB putting in 2 more with any two suited when they already have 1 in and could win big if they hit; adding some K4, T4, and 94 combos to the mix.

Yeah, sorry, I misread the hand. I still think that his having to call two cold narrows his range a bit, though, so I'm not really thinking about hands like K4o very much. (Besides, Villain is 40/8, not 75/8, so it's not as if he's super-loose.)

The obvious hands we're losing to are QJ, TT, 99, and 44. That's 25 combos. It's not easy to come up with that many combos that had two pair on the turn unless we're going to assume Villain plays very loosely from the BB in 3-bet pots. (Even adding a hand as weak as 94s to the mix, for instance, just adds two combos. If the junk two-pair hands need to be suited, then there aren't very many of them available.)

i agree, I was just pointing out that Nick had the action wrong.

yeah I checked, and he checked back KT, but I figured c/c'ing the river was right even if he saved a BB by sould-reading me

That rivercard is bad for us so why should we bet it? We should make a crying call when he bet's thou.

Edit: sorry I thought it was UTG+1 that raised turn... A little confusing that you provided info on the guy that folded turn and not on the guy that raised you ...

Against unknown at fishy small-stakes I would bet/call.

Vs a guy with those stats don't you think bet/fold is wayyyy better than check/call? I mean if one bet is going in this pot his calling range has to be wider than his betting range imo. That said its pretty sick to bet/fold top two pair, but I still think its right.

-DeathDonkey

Gee I messed up again. I thought the stats where UTG+1:s and BB was unknown...

I'm so confused now so I just give this thread up...

if anyone is trying to follow the thread the stats provided in OP are about the BB, since he is the guy who raised the turn and is the only other player in the pot on the river.

While I agree that his calling range is wider than his betting range, I think the effects of this are exaggerated in this particular case (at least as it pertains to deciding between bet-folding and check-calling), for these two main reasons:

(1) We have Villain on fricking two pair or better on the turn. If that read is correct, he's going to bet the river a lot.

(2) I'm not sure I want to count on Villain not to raise his fricking two pair on the river on those occasions when that's all he has. Two pair is a pretty damn strong hand, all we're doing here is donkbetting (so it's not like we're showing massive strength), and also he's pissed at us for winning so many recent pots against him.

Edit: Er, and (3), the obvious thing is that if whenever Villain finds a raise with his KTo in the face of our donkbet on the river, of course that cuts greatly into the value of a bet-fold (versus a check-call) in a pot of this size.

i don't make super folds, sorry.

I think bet/fold is worse than bet/call

i'm not sure how that works out logically, it just is

I honestly believe if you took a lie detector test on this question you would fail.