UTG is a LAGfish, and CO is a LAGTAG reg who I think has some postflop leaks. My plan was to call the flop and raise any non spade turn, but obviously things got confusing.

All streets are debatable imo...

Absolute Poker $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is BTN with Q Q
UTG raises, CO 3-bets, Hero caps!, 2 folds, UTG calls, CO calls

Flop: (13.5 SB) A T Q (3 players)
UTG checks, CO bets, Hero calls, UTG calls

Turn: (8.25 BB) 3 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero checks

River: (8.25 BB) 2 (3 players)
UTG checks, CO checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, CO calls

On an action flop like this one, I think I'd just raise and hope that someone with AK or TT 3-bets. And if I did get 3-bet, then I'd think about calling and popping a non-spade turn. Still, it's possible that you actually have a better chance of winning the hand with your plan (if, for instance, UTG has a pair plus gutshot and no spade), so there's that. Also, on some turn cards, you'll wish you hadn't pumped the flop (especially if you refrain from capping and it doesn't check to you), so there's that too.

I'm not sure what's best on the turn. There is some chance UTG is going for a checkraise, and even if he isn't, it's possible some low flush (like 6s6c) is out there.

The river bet seems good to me. No one's acting like they have a flush, so there should be some value. At the same time, I would hate to get checkraised, so it's not a bet I would actually enjoy making very much.

If the CO donks AK he is very unlikely to b-3-b the flop. The only hands I see him b-3-b'ing are AA, TT, and KJ.

Plus my hand loses a lot of equity if a spade, K or J comes ont he turn. I felt like if I waited until the turn to pop my hand then I can charge the max for UTG if he has a weak spade or gs draw (he would def call 2sb on the flop with any spade) since obvious noone is folding the Ks.

But if I did raise the flop do I check back the turn?

oh and river bet is totally for value. if anyone had the Ks or Js they would have bet by now, and I can def see myself getting called by two pair or TP on the river after the turn got checked back.

i think not raising the flop is a serious mistake. this pot is big and you have a chance to fold out a small spade from UTG in case CO doesnt have one.

TBH I dont think it is very likely that UTG would have folded any spade on the flop.

But that doesn't mean that we shouldnt raise even if it is a very very small chance. I'm not convinced that the flop play is correct, but I don't know how effective my attempt would be at folding out a small spade.

I think u have to raise the flop. Your hand is likely best so you have to collect some bets.

I think you're hand is strong enough that you don't really need to wait for a safe turn. It's one thing when you have a pair and a spade would crush you, but here you're going to have 10 outs if someone makes their flush.

any K,J or spade is an unsafe card (18 cards) but you'll have 10 outs if one of them comes. 5 cards gives you a boat or quads. and 23 cards are "safe". So you are in very good shape on the flop so you should raise and try to get it HU with the guy you say have postflop leaks. A raise could make UTG fold a small spade if he has like a pocket with a spade or it charges the most if he has a decent spade.

just cause its late, i'm bored, and I am curious.

Lets say I raise the flop and UTG folds and MP calls. Turn is same as it was in the hand (makes 4 spades) do I check back the turn and take a free river?

I like my hand on the flop and stuff the pot, you're ahead an great amount of the time. If you're waiting for the spades to hit you're a 2-1 favorite over the flushdraws and on the flop are only behind to the flopped flush and AA. I want my money in ahead and pump the pot on the flop.

The turn sucks but you are now drawing to your f/h so all is not lost.

Once it gets checked around I probably call the river hoping to see a non spade 2 pair or something.

does anyone think my river value bet is bad?

Tough question, but I probably would. I really don't know what's best in this scenario.

I like the river bet. I would want to throw up if checkraised (which is why I said it was a bet I wouldn't enjoy making), but I still like the bet.

[This is way above where I play.]

Raise the flop. COs range is wide preflop, isolating a LAGfish (&). UTG is loose money, and anyone with a AK-AT/TT/JJ/KK will hang in for the ride and possibly give good action, especially with a spade, KQ/KT/QJ etc. with a spade will give action too.

You have the equity edge, you can get big action from drawing hands. KJ for straight or KJ for the flush are probably the only made hands you are behind to, apart from AA of course. Made flushes with this flop and preflop action have to be rare, maybe K9s or J9s for UTG?? Many cards can also kill your action on the turn, s or K/J.

You probably will not have full 10 outs (AQ/AT/TT and AA are possible) on the turn but that doesn't matter much on the flop.

You could fold a small spade on a non-spade turn easier but as you probably can face only UTG with two bets on the turn and as you said UTG is not likely to fold a spade, waiting to turn for that reason doesn't seem good.

I like the turn. UTG doesn't fold a flush and CO probably doesn't have one when he doesn't bet (only J or K would make sense for him given preflop and those he'd bet here - maybe A9 is one possible hand he could have too, once in a blue moon, and not bet the turn). A c/r is possible from UTG.

River b/f looks good given the turn checked through and no aggression from either - you'd think they'd bet their made flushes now, don't you?

you have the nuts...well mostly unless one is umber ******ed