Villain is 70/9 over 30 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with 7 7
Hero raises, 4 folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.4 SB) 5 5 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Turn: (3.2 BB) 9 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

River: (5.2 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Do you check this river back? Do I not bet the turn?

I think I would've checked the river. Rest of the hand I play the same.

I would B/F turn, and check behind river.

this

ok, 3 jokes in a row is enough


bet the river, this guy is awful at poker and who knows what he will call with, including hands like 65s


nh op

I'm okay with a river bet, but I checked with Stove, and I think it should be noted that we're merely a 51/49 favorite over a random hand on the river. (This doesn't prove very much, but it does mean that if we just suddenly gave Villain two random cards on the river after he had already checked to us , betting would be very foolish, since so many of his losing hands should be turbo-mucks). Also, all of the turn overcard(s) + straight draw hands except for J7 did just pull ahead of you. Nevertheless, when I gave Villain a range of 22-88, AJ+, A6-A8, A2-A4, KJ+, QJ, Q8, and J8, you did have 62% equity on the river. The main questions are how often Villain would inexplicably call with even worse than Ax (it happens), how often he might actually find a fold with Ax (I'm thinking not too often if he's gotten this far, but some players are going to fold Ax on the turn), and how often Villain has a 9x, Tx, or even 5x hand that he hasn't let you know about. (These hands, at least somewhat unrealistically, are not accounted for at all, except for quad 5's, in that Stove with 62% equity.) But on the bright side, Villian might have donkbet some of his river suckouts such as Qx.

great post, but i'm still unsure of what you would do on this river

i have dudes like this look me up with tons Ax Kx whiffs. Id probably bet though , if you were to check this river i hope ur folding.

I'm not sure either. And the fact that we have no specific read on Villain's postflop aggressiveness or showdown tendencies adds to the guessing game. (Does he let us know during the hand when he has 9x or Tx? Does he futilely show down Ax? We don't know, and although there's probably some correlation between Villain's preflop stats and the answers to those questions, I'm still not sure what the answers are.)

fyi it's an easy bet against a clown easy check vs anyone with more than 4 braincells.

the fact this guy sucks at poker means it's a river bet


vs good players, check, because they probably wont call with worse

I have no doubt in my mind that we can get value from some hands. But he can also easily have lot of hands that are beating us.The river is probably a bet but I don't think it is an easy one.

I'm a pretty good table selector and every session I play hands where my eyes just pops out when I have an easy value bet on river and the pot goes the other way. And in this case the value bet is not even easy.

vs. these guys, I bet until they give me reason not too.

you know these guys are capable of calling with 9 high because "they want to see what you got"

I agree that betting is the play against unknowns with this player profile.
But against app. 20% of these loose passives a bet on the river is burning money so you better pick up a read Asap.