Over the last few thousand hands my went to sd dropped significantly, from about 36 to around 29, often below 25 for 6-700 hand intervals. First I thought I may be scared money as I moved up just recently, but later on I eliminated that possibility. I have to face it - I just plain suck. I'm a nit. Please help to save my lost soul. I'm going to post a series of hands from the past few days (I considered throwing them into one thread but since you guys usually don't appreciate that, I'll make a series of threads), where I had some sd value or maybe I could have peeled lighter, but I gave up.

Here's Hand 3.
Both villains are very loose, 60+ vpip, UTG+1's pfr is around 20 and aggression is about 0.5. Two clowns, basically. Maybe this should have made me more inclined to peel? Or is it a standard peel? Or a standard fold? I generally don't peel with weakish overs without any sort of backdoor potential. I'm getting 8,5:1. What do you think?

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $1(BB) Replayer Game#19396059566

SB ($130.25)
Hero ($106.25)
UTG ($19.75)
UTG+1 ($51.75)
CO ($34.50)
BTN ($25.25)

Dealt to Hero JK

fold, UTG+1 raises to $2, fold, call, fold, call,

FLOP ($6.50) 953

check, UTG+1 bets $1, BTN calls $1, Hero folds,

bad fold. easy peel

oops I messed up the thread title, it's hand 3. If a mod can maybe change it I'd be grateful, thanks

good, at least we found one. What potsize/what circumstances do you need to peel with only two overs, no backdoor draws? This board is very dry but there's an FD, so even my 6 outs may be tainted. I was reasoning that I need around 8:1 for a 6outter, if I'm fairly certain that it might be the best hand if I improve, and here I get 8,5:1 with tainted outs, no backdoor potential. Hence the tight fold.

Meh you dont have any backdoors.

Its a peel for me as well but folding in this spot is not some huge terrible mistake that makes you a losing player

tight isnt the word you're looking for here.

your logic makes no sense. you have more than 6 outs, you're getting more than the odds you think you need, and yet you fold? Just because there is two spades on the board doesnt mean that someone is on a flush draw. you are playing scared money. dont go nuts if the Js peels off and someone shows a lot of interest but you cant fold every hand just because someone may possibly have a draw

Agreed. I would actually fold this most of the time.

Gotta peel that flop there. Getting 8.5 to 1 to hit a 6 outer. And even if you don't, two things are definitely possible:

1) a non-spade T or Q drops, giving you a total of 10 outs on the river (although your J outs might be tainted if the Q drops) and, provided the action stays the same on the turn, you'd be getting 6.75-to-1 on the turn call

2) UTG+1 gets scared and checks a blank turn, so does BTN, and bam, you got yourself a free river card.

Of course, this changes completely for me if the 2 villains in the hand are TAGs and have better, well defined hand-ranges. But two clowns with no aggression post flop? I'm in.

+1

I peel here.

you have no pairs, no draws, no redraws, vs. 2 players, and an UTG1 raise

this is a ridiculously easy flop fold

if you had the Ks or Js, then I can get behind a call, but come on, fold the flop

I agree with Oink that the decision here is no big deal either way.

We have one crappy backdoor straight draw on a two-flush board that at the moment is merely a draw to a gutshot. That gutshot will be overs + gutshot if we catch it, it's true, but also 1/4 of the time on what will have become a three-flush board.

Our overs are not 6 clean outs, although they will be 6 full outs a decent amount of the time. Sure, I'd love to catch a J or K, but sometimes we'll do so and lose anyway, and then also sometimes what's going to happen is that we'll "miss" and turn, like, a ~41-outer, we won't know it, and we'll fold when UTG+1 bets again.

I would peel all the same, but I think the decision is close.

Edit: And now that I've read what Hip wrote I'll add that if UTG+1 figured to have a legitimate preflop-raising range for his position and also didn't have an AF that suggested he's going to check the turn a fair amount, I'd be much more inclined to fold the flop. As it is, though, I do (marginally) favor a call.

This. We get free cards here a significant portion of the time improving our odds to win the hand significantly.

This may be a ridiculously easy flop fold but I never ever fold. I seriously doubt the peel is far of neutral EV in any direction but my gut feeling is that its slightly +EV

Why would we want to fold two overs against two clowns on a dry board?

well it's a very weak draw which you can hit and still often loose, and we get just about enough odds to justify a call. I mean we need around 8:1, we get around 8,5:1, so it may look slightly +EV but then I'm not really sure you do win here 1 out of 9 times on the long run, thus an argument can be made for folding easily. But considering all that has been said above,especially the possibility of getting a free card and the two loose passives improving our implied odds, I'm quite convinced now that a peel is stronger.

I fold flop most of the time.Can´t say it is an easy fold but with my limited postflop skills I like to avoid situations where I have great potential to screw up.

well we lose sometimes when we hit but sometimes we also win some extra bets when we hit, especially against this bad opponents. Getting 8,5:1 is fine closing the action.

Yes that's what I said, it's probably very marginal just as Oink said. I think it's probably +EV with very good post flop skills but might be -EV with only decent skills.

this post flop skill you are talking about is a myth for this hand

the point is, if ppl call this flop with nothing, and the turn is the Ks, and you donk, and the PRF raises, they are calling down, sure, they can fold to a raise/3bet combo, but they will hit a K or J, and either bet, get raised, and call down, or check raise, get 3 bet, and call down anyway.

It's not so much the fact there are 2 spades, it's the fact we have a CO open, and if we hit, we might be losing, and we are going to lose 3BB on the turn and river when you hit.

Also, when you hit the Ks or Js, you might be good on the turn, but one of these monkeys will have a spade almost always, and they aren't folding, so you have to then dodge up to 1/3 of the deck.

this is a flop fold, dont be fooled.