Moved up to .5/1 6max... not going so well so far



Feels like variance right now, losing 101BB over 1105 hands since beginning of August sucks regardless. Just wanted to get a checkup to see if anything jumps up.

The 49W$SD is the only thing to me that really shows anything terrible hence the variance thoery, I am probably pretty nitty for this limit possibly right now and I was worried about my blind play but its not a disaster at .18 and .15 BB/Hand.

Just seems like a like of bleh hands (set over set, straight over straight etc) so I don't feel like I am playing bad or making terrible leaky errors just more so a situation where its throw up your hands, grind through it and push on.

Any help is appreciated.

too tight preflop imo

3bet way more from small blind, especially against steals

also sometimes I think .50/1 isn't beatable but that's just the runbad talking

ZOMG must be drunk. He almost sounded helpful . . .

You play the exact same hands on the button and in the cutoff.. loosen up in BTN. Also you have exactly same 3bet range in all positions..

oh and also lol sample size.

Come back when you've actually played some hands.

Yeah Ill try but I hope I still have some money for chewing gums... LOL

If you're not comfortable with your current stakes, then just move down for a while, rebuild, and come back. Beating LHE is a long term process. A few weeks building up confidence and fortifying your roll can be extremely valuable going forward.

what's the largest sample you guys with around 39/40 wtsd, have run at 47-48won@sd? I'm at 10k now and I'm curious how common this is. Not meant to be a beat post, just wanna get some idea about the average occurance of samples like this, I can't remember ever running like this for more than 4-5k hands tops

W$SD has a know distribution. If you tell me what your sample is in terms of showdowns seen, I can make you a confidence interval.

i found an 8k sample without difficulty where I was playing at 48w$sd. but whether or not I am a winning player is questionable

I have no idea what that means but here it is:

thanks

That's because it should say "known."

So it's almost certainly converged within 1% of it's true value.

excuse my ignorance but I don't know jack about stats, what does this statement mean in case of a won@sd value? like, it's long term value should be between 49 and 47 in this case?

What the procedure says is that, if you were to repeatedly take samples, 95% of the intervals you got would contain the true value. This particular interval either contains the true value or it doesn't.

One can deduce from this though that the interval is highly likely to contain the true value and thus that the W$SD you got is probably not farther then 1% away from the true value.

So basically, yes.

thanks Leader
what I don't understand is, the majority of guys whom I see with similar wtsd, have their long term won@sd at 51-52 (well at least according to my db, over large samples) so how can my true value be so much lower than the average? when my wtsd was about 1-2% lower, my won@sd was 53+ for over half a million hands.. weird

One option is that your sample is an outlier. Another option is that you're playing differently then the other players or then you were in the past.

I wouldn't spend much time thinking about it though. It's sort of cliche but just try to get better by review hands and thinking about different spots.

Basic statistics was a lot of fun. Bummer I don't remember how to run the problems though. All I remember is the general idea of confidence intervals, means, etc. Which helps when reading Leader's posts. Good thing my economics professors don't how much I don't remember >_>.

Leader, do you have any links to websites that would have good info for basic stats review?

Both of the following appear to be pretty good:

http://www.psychstat.missouristate.edu/sbk00.htm

http://davidmlane.com/hyperstat/

If you're ever looking for something more advanced, let me know. I can point you in the right direction.

ya those sites look like win to me. I may try to pick up an advanced stats or probability course in the spring so these will be nice too look at. Thanks.

Look for something that involves theory. Unfortunately most undergrad courses are a waste of money, but sometimes you get lucky. I'd highly recommend picking the hardest one you can find because otherwise you'll end up learning nothing for your 3-4K or w/e.

Hi There

I was just thinking about this the other day. I have played 0.50/1 , 1/2 and 2/4 6max limit this year and my vpip / pfr at all these limits are all within the 30/29vpip - 23/22pfr bracket.
It was interesting because although my hand ranges are slightly looser for example at 2/4 than 0.50/1 the vpip/prf stats are virtually the same. I think this is offset by the fact that in the 0.50/1 games you get more opportunities to play/raise your hands as people are more likely to limp and be loose passive, whereas at 2/4 there is more raising going on so sometimes you have to fold a hand that is not 3 bettable.

My main point was going to be about if you have or have not adjusted your ranges as you have moved upwards and has it affected your vpip/pfr rates? also have you made any adjustments to your 3 betting range too. It would be good to hear your thought.

Many Thanks
Admania (Adam)

Growing tired of FR. Want to improve poker skills more and I hear 6max is the place to do it. Winning over the past 27k hands but not sure if thats even enough of a sample size to show whether I'm a winner or not. The swings I'm experiencing (relative to full ring) are causing me to doubt a lot of things.




Past 8k hands or so I've been loosening up more, probably playing closer to 32/25, but other than that the stats have remained much the same.




Graph is full of steep swooongs, that normal for this game? I don't tilt often (if ever), use tiltblocker and I don't check session winnings/losses till end of the day so results don't bother me when im playing.

its pretty std to have such swings if you have an agression of 2.56

I mean, I think you play a bit overagro but it isn't necessary *that* bad. I would 3bet way more from the BTN and fold to steal less from the BB.

The other things looks good

Hello. I would like any feedback on my poker tracker statistics for my first 15,502 hands of 1/2 shorthanded limit. I have played mostly at rush tables. I posted some a while ago when I was playing 25c/50c and think I managed to discover and correct a number of leaks. I am constantly trying to incorporate different strategies into my game based off of different videos I watch, things I read and just generally thinking about the game. Thanks to anyone willing to look them over.