Villain small winning TAG at limits like 5/10. Don't know how he plays other than that. My image is very laggy.


Poker Stars $15/$30 Limit Hold'em - 9 players
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Pre Flop: (1.667 SB) Hero is BTN with 8 Q
6 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, BB calls

Flop: (4.667 SB) Q 5 T (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Turn: (3.333 BB) J (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (3.333 BB) T (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB calls

I think line is easily best.

Bet turn bet river seems better to me. I think his call then call range is wider than his check then bet/call range. You also give him the chance to semibluff you on the turn if you bet.

Most tags don't semibluff the turn in this spot. Most tags would also expect me with my laggy image to barrel most pairs. So he should assume my range is mainly air/some weakshowdownable hands. So on the river he's going to vbet most pairs, bluff fds, and maybe turn some A-highs into bluffs. And of course one of the main benefits of this line is that I save a bet when he turns me and is going to c/r (because in my line I'm folding if the river is 3b). OR if he's waiting for the turn to c/r me with good queens.

Obviously the river helps this line. On most blank rivs I'd probably still r/f.

I would pretty much only ever consider taking this line against a slightly winning TAG.

Edit: one more thing, I think I'll often win the same # of bets when he has most small pairs (at least 5x or higher), because he should vbet them and then I think will also wtfcall my raise (not possible without my image).

do u really r/f a blank when to him ur line is total bs?

what's he going to bluff you with? he doesn't really have any airballs in his range, it's all stuff with SD value. If villain thinks your line is BS, he's gonna respond by calling, not 3betting.

exactly, except there's another bonus in that he does have some air on river in his range (bricked flush draws), and my line saves a bet against them as well, assuming he is planning on c/c turn and c/r river when he hits, unless I could find a fold there.

And generally, I think only expert players (considerably stronger than this guy) and fish would consider b/3b river bluffing in this spot.

hmm, good point

Why not, in this particular spot, bet/call the turn as he will probably be trying to semi-bluff with Kx and barrel UI, if he decides to take that line?

i dont see how this could possibly be the best line... however, i wouldnt mind valuechecking Tx in hero's spot

This hand hurts my head. I read the whole thing and was like huh these guys have good arguments maybe this is best then trypt chimes in and I am lost.

I never play hands this way but I never play this high. A slight 5/T winner is the rockstar of any game I sit in....

I'm still confused as to how this line nets more than v-betting turn, v-betting river. If you feel you can raise fold the river you should also be able to bet fold as well.

Why is that the case?

Although the two situations aren't "exactly" the same, they're both still relatively close as to what a typical tag is capable of. In other words, if a tag isn't going to be bet 3 betting the river as a bluff, its also fair to assume he isn't going to be check raise bluffing as well, since it takes a certain type of player/mindset to achieve either one.

The only hands I can see this play working better than bet-bet against are a made gutshot or JT, since we save one big bet. Against any other reasonable hand, it seems that we're hoping villain will bet/call the river with hands he may not actually bet-call the river with. I wouldn't expect villain to turn ace hi into a bluff or to do anything out of line on the river... especially since he is probably scared of OP. So against the majority of villain's range, I think we lose value by checking the turn. After all, this turn check looks like either "LOL I'm going to showdown" or "I have air and am giving up". I suppose this line could make a little more sense to me with Q7, since there are more bad cards that can come on the river. But I still think we miss some clear, easy value on the turn when our raise potentially becomes a bit thin or valueless on many river cards.

Maybe this play helps set up a river bluff raise in the future with 9x/8x/maybe Kx or Ax? Beyond that, I am not seeing many positives.

2 positives that I can think of this line are spots where (1) villain has slow played his hand on the flop and was planning to c/r the turn. We get to showdown and lose 2 bets rather than losing 3 (assuming we don't get bluff 3 bet on river and can correctly fold to a 3 bet)

and (2) when BB has a hand like 44 or 66 that he may consider folding on the turn; he sees us check and says OMG we have a pair and button checked behind, then they pay off the raise with a hand they may have folded. If they wouldn't have folded on the turn, we win the same amount of bets as long as they call river from confusion.

this!
there is no way elos line is optimal imho

I think the default and optimal line is to bet the turn. I don't think elo's line is optimal, but it could be useful in an overall game strategy. This line, against tags who you play with on a weekly basis, can cause them to slow down in other pots which could be beneficial. Say we take this line with 99 or 88 minus the river c/r we may get a cheaper showdown against Jx or possibly even Qx.

We can't make up for lost bets.

Oh the crazy lines I come up with after one or two or 20 tokes Obviously I bet turn 19.5/20 times. HOWEVER, I still think this line is so sexy given me and v's images. I will admit that possibly my "I think this line is easily best" assertion in the OP was optimistic.

I disagree with some of Locke/Unguarded et al. assertions but I'll leave it as is unless people are still interested in the hand.

Results: Villain b/called with Tx (x= some low card I don't remember) ftw. It did surprise me as I expected most tag villains to value c/r flop w/ 2nd pair, especially on a flop texture where he can rep numerous draws (but it's slightly worth nothing I either broke even or saved 1 bet as opposed to a standard b/c turn line, depending on how he would play a T river in that case) against a laggy button opener.

btw, the stakes for this thread are kinda high because if I'm right about this I'm a total innovative genius, amiright?