I only have 28 hands on villain but over that sample he is laggy preflop and passive postflop.

I actually think the turn bet is pretty bad but is it asking too much to get a fold here once I've gotten to the river?

I mean if I'm him I'm going to have a hard time calling this river with anything marginal like ace high or a small pair.


Full Tilt Limit Hold'em, $6.00 BB (5 handed) - Full-Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com

Preflop: Hero is Button with J, K
2 folds, MP raises, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, MP calls

Flop: (7 SB) 7, 8, 3 (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls

Turn: (4.5 BB) 9 (2 players)
Hero bets, MP calls

River: (6.5 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero bets,

I assume you are in small blind and not button?

With a kJO I think you are better off just calling or folding oop, against a MP raise (unless he is a maniac) Because you will be in difficult postions as this. I think Cbet on Turn is fine, with overcards and nut flush.

I think I just C/f river......it is either that or B/f.....

your title says it all. plus, the only hand he might EVER fold is an A-hi on the river. pretty thin IMO.

Assuming that you're SB and MP=BTN:

Betting the turn but not betting this river is criminal. 22, 44, A2/A4/AJ/AQ/AK, KQ, KJ can all find folds on this board. That doesn't mean they always will, but that's a pretty wide portion of villain's range that you're targeting. Betting will also fold out QJ which may bluff if you check, so this preserves some equity. Getting 6.5:1, you're getting the right price. The fact that he's passive postflop does make it closer, since he'll semi-bluff Tx less often, but now he can hold 6x, and maybe he'll even fold that. Our read isn't strong, the board is scary, and we're at the bottom of our range (QJ is the only worse hand, right?), so it looks like a pretty good spot to barrel.

Sorry for the converter confusion. I am sb in this hand and he is the button.

this! good post. In particular the part about barreling turn but not river. Such a standard donk move in my games

pairs and AK never fold


just saying

I agree with the spirit of your post. This is what I wonder:

First let's go further and assume Ax and pairs never fold. Secondly, let's assume if we check we always fold to a bet. Is betting the river still worth it to get KJ/KQ to fold and to block us from getting bluffed by a worse hand? I suspect the answer is yes but that's only a guess at this point.

i have no idea.

sometimes i bluff, sometimes i c/f

if one is wrong, i try to minimize it by doing the right thing sometimes too

If by never you mean infrequently, then yeah, I agree. Villain is relatively unknown, and some players will, in fact find folds with these hands. Therefore we must assume that they will get folded with some frequency, even if it's low. AK-AJ also need to be discounted for preflop, so they don't play a huge role. A4/A2/KQ make up 44 combos, which would mean villain needs over 300 combos that beat us. He doesn't have these, so it's an easy bet.

When counting combos on the river I think KQ should get discounted a decent amount too. But should really AQ/AJ be discounted all that much?

And A4/A2 might call a river bet som X percent of the time

I get this. And I can see this being the right play on average in a marginal spot. I'm going to think about it a lot more. But before I'd read it this would've been my view....

"As per read and board I think barreling is suicide. Laggy preflop and passive postflop BTN has just called a turn bet on a 789x board and the 6 hit the river. Just about every middling to poor hand he opens OTB just got there. Add this to the fact that he expects your 3! PF to be any 2 broadway plus, and he's very rarely folding his A-hi hands. You fold out KQ and KJ a fair portion of the time. That's about all"

His range is def weighted towards stuff that he may fold, sometimes. I don't think it's even close, you have to barrel the river here.

you always bluff with a hand with no show down value no? if let say you have A high, you want to check and may be make a crying call for a bluff catcher, K high i always bet regardless, even you got call better, you built your table image for maga game there