This guy is a total mess. Only 100 hands with him and he has stats of 65/45. My read on him is based on this hand that happened a bit earlier:

Party Poker $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is CO with K 9
2 folds, Hero raises, 1 fold, SB calls, BB 3-bets, Hero calls, SB calls

Flop: (9 SB) Q T 8 (3 players)
SB checks, BB bets, Hero calls, SB folds

Turn: (5.5 BB) J (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps!, BB calls

River: (13.5 BB) 3 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero raises, BB 3-bets, Hero caps!, BB calls

Final Pot: 21.5 BB
Hero shows K 9 (a straight, Nine to King)
BB mucks A 3 (a pair of Threes)
Hero wins 20.5 BB
(Rake: $0.50)


So this hand comes:

Party Poker $0.25/$0.50 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with A 9
Hero raises, 2 folds, BTN 3-bets, 1 fold, BB calls, Hero calls

I usually open ATo+ but the table is juicy. I'd still fold A8o.

Flop: (9.4 SB) 3 9 4 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero checks, BTN bets, BB raises, Hero 3-bets, BTN caps!, BB calls, Hero calls

BTN should be here 100% of the time and BB is actually reasonable player so he might be isolating me with any pair.

Turn: (10.7 BB) 8 (3 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BTN raises, BB folds, Hero 3-bets, BTN caps!, Hero calls

River: (18.7 BB) 4 (2 players)

How many bets and why? Do I want to cap and lose to J4o or calm down and lose value from A2o?

Maniacs are usually really moody. If he had just taken a couple beats or I had an aggro history w/him I could go 3 or 4 bets on the river, but c/c is fine in most cases.

It's close though. Any river line that doesn't involve folding is decent.

ETA: I don't want to get into a range estimation or equity calculation type thing because his range is going to be dependent on his mood and your history with him.

you don't know chuck, but if this guy is anything like chuck, i raise cap the river all day

if he's not a complete drooler, then 3 bets on the river might be fine.

if he's not a river spazz, then just 1 bet on the river isn't awful


based on that first A3 hand, you should go 4 bets on the river

if he has JJ or A4, that's life

the guy did put 4 bets in on the turn with a gutter, and then 4 bets in on the river with bottom pair on a QJT83 board

the more i think about it, the more i hate not going 4 on the river

I have to assume he's playing TT-AA and 33, 44, 99, 88 like this. That's a lot of combos you lose to. He'd have to have a high probability of getting out of line for you to like your hand. This can easily occur if he's in an angry mood. I'd want some reason to believe he's in an angry mood or some evidence that he doesn't need to be in an angry mood to go ape****; 1 crazy hand isn't enough for me.

Bad players tend to learn inductively. They do something. If the money comes their way, they do it again; if money moves away from them, they don't. It's possible that he just learned (or was reminded) why it's bad to put in 4 bets on the river with bottom pair.

this is true. i want more than 1 bet going in on the river.

vs. chuck, are you going 4 BB on the river?

Haven't played chuck in a while, but it depends strictly on his mood. If I put a beat on him earlier in the session then he's gonna be on monkey tilt vs. me, so yes, 4 bets; otherwise, I'd just c/c.

This is one reason why I love running -EV semibluffs against chuck. I throw away a fraction of a bet of EV, and he counters by throwing away 4 bets of EV. The worst image you can have agaisnt a maniac is 'the guy who always has it'.

He once claimed he was making a note that I was too aggressive. I'd love to log onto his account and see if he really did. If so, I'd probably put it on my gravestone.

he probably thinks i'm aggro too. if i flop top pair vs. him, it's 4 bets every street

Cap this crap

based on first hand, i guess a cap looks ok here.