I actually missed that read in the OP.
And I also assume that the regulars I play with can play reasonably well until I'm proved otherwise.

i assume that they suck until they prove otherwise


there are so many 30-20 or 28-20 guys that look like they have good stats, but postflop, they just mash buttons.

There's your problem

So I believe we all see that betting is the play, since when we check there can't be any bluffs in his range, unless he LOL called with QJ. The other option is to check fold. If we check only better hands will bet and lower pairs will turn themselves into bluffs with at least some frequency but not all the time. So we have two questions that need to be answered:

1) When we bet will we get called by a worse hand more often than we get called or raised by a better hand? We have to decide what frequency villain will call the turn check raise with ace high, a fancy played boat/quads, or a flush draw that completed on the river and stove it using holdem ranger so we can discount the hands in question.

2) If we bet and get raised, will villain be bluff raising a lower pair at least 1 in 12 times meaning we can't fold?

another thing to realize, if he has AQ, he's probably just calling the river, since a river raise from his POV is ******ed, because he gets 3bet by flushes and boats and nothing calls his raise


bet/fold

next hand