Same opponent as the other hand I just posted. 35/10/2.14. Aggressive player post-flop, especially against me. UTG is unknown, but he limped pre-flop. Also, what about pre-flop?

Poker Stars $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A 7
UTG calls, 3 folds, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, SB calls

Flop: (6 SB) 4 4 5 (3 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, SB raises, Hero calls

Turn: (5 BB) 9 (2 players)
SB bets, Hero calls

River: (7 BB) 5 (2 players)
SB bets, Hero...

Odds of me folding this river:

980234573290572305:1

Okay, I just feel like a station lately.

so standard...

preflop is standard for you guys? im guessing you guys also raise stuff like KTo QTo here as well?

i think preflop is pretty bad.

I think preflop is pretty ******ed but I gave up arguing this point about a year and a half ago. The problem is nobody knows the answer and both sides have nothing to rely on but hand-waving arguments. So this discussion will ultimately lead you no where.

If you're not calling the turn to showdown, then its a mistake IMO.

C'mon ILP. Labeling PF as ******ed is pretty silly don't you think. A simple stove against these two players ranges (I use middle 42% adjust as necessary) says we have ~37% equity. Give away a little for our postion, add some for initiative, adjust for showdown tendcies etc.. Pf is probably correct, if not, far from ******ed I'd say

I never raise this hand preflop but I'm typically only 13-15% pfr and I guess maybe this is a spot where I'm playing more passive than standard?

I would not raise preflop.

Lol, nice try but I'm not gonna get involved in this discussion. If you think I'm silly and raising PF is correct, I am perfectly ok with that.

I agree whit not raising A7o is the right play. You will not fold no one and this hand plays poorly vs multiway pots.

Even if the equitity is very good (above 35%) i will not raise this hand vs an loose passive and somehow an good oponent.

I really wasn't trying to spark a discussion as you already said it's been hashed out and I never said you were silly. I said labeling the play ******ed is silly. You make it sound like it's a cut and dry -ev play. If that was the case there would be overwhelming evidence mathematically or otherwise to support your statement. I doubt such evidence exists. If it did there would have never been any such great debate that you mention and I'm sure it would have been placed on your desktop to simply copy and paste every time the question arose.

Again I'm not trying to start a debate or a pissing contest. I just think you do harm to all that are trying to progress if you speak in absolutes if no such absolutes exist (if they do please link/post). You know your a respected poster so I think you have a responsibility, if you are truly here to help/learn, to post in a more productive manner.

A better ILP response and still keeping true to his arrogant nature would have been:
PF is ******ed, but I encourage you to apply all your poker savvy into analyzing the situation more deeply and proving me wrong.

Now was that so hard.

I checked here in the past, but I'm now leaning towards the raise. I'm going to outplay these guys post-flop and I'd rather have the lead with a decent A high than be checking and inducing against 2 when I miss. Realizing my equity pre-flop and winning more pots with the best hand is my goal here, but I know there are good arguments on the other side as well.

You misread my original post on this topic. I said that both will ultimately have to rely on hand-waving arguments. Translation: I'm admitting I don't have enough evidence. No absolutes. I am arrogant, but I actually went out of my way not sound arrogant in that post, but you see, that's how arrogant I really am. Even when I try to be humble, I still come out sounding arrogant. That's why I'm such a ****ing baller!

Ok seriously, this is how this argument goes down:

1) I say preflop is ******ed.

2) Somebody comes out and stoves some numbers based on their own assumptions and concludes preflop is a raise.

3) I say that even if it's true that we have an equity edge, it's really an illusion due to the fact that we're OOP and A7o plays so badly postflop.

4) You'll say, "But I've taken those problems into account in my analysis."

5) I'll say, "But how do you quantify those problems?"

6) You'll say, "I pulled a number out of my ass, but basically so did you."

7) I'll say, "You're right, I can't quantify the problem either. I'm also just guessing."

8) You'll say, "Ok I guess we can't go anywhere from here, I wish I could have those 3 hours back."

9) I'll say, "Me too."

See Carmine, I'd rather skip all that banter and have more time to lead my baller life.

Raising preflop is not so good.

Based on over a million hands of actual experience I have noticed that I will collect many more bets postflop when I hit my Ace if I don't raise preflop. This is because limpers (i.e, bad players) will bet when checked to way too often, and then miraculously continuing betting while I just call and collect at the end. They end up showing a real crap hand on the river, which isn't surprising because, after all, they limped and they are terrible.

However, if I raise preflop then they say 'he must have AK' and then fold properly when I flop my Ace.

Now, you may think that raising preflop will allow you to take down flops when everybody misses. But, we can accomplish the same thing, for the same price, by checkraising dry-ish flops. And often we can get away from those same flops for nothing when the action goes bet-raise.

So, there you have it.

This makes a lot of sense and I agree with it.
So what hands would you actually raise in a situation like this??

If you dont have a profitable call on this river, calling the turn is terrible.

Preflop is a check. I agree with you there is a lot of value with initiative in raising with the BB, which is why I raise with hands like Q9s and suited connectors here. However, on Ax boards, you will collect more money by disguising your hand and getting people to put in big bets on ace boards with underpairs. Plus you can save yourself all those stupid 33% equity call down situations that you are forced to put money in because of your bloated pot.

It sort of depends on their flop peeling tendencies, if they dont peel enough flops, raising is more correct, because you will be taking down bigger pots when the board is uncoordinated with just a cbet. Also, if you cbet boards like Q94, you can just check/fold the turn in a lot of spots. However, against 2 peely opponents you wont know where you'll stand, and would prefer to not bloat the pot.

You say you want to "outplay" them postflop... But you know bloating the pot with ace rag , gives you less room to maneuver and forces you to call down when you suspect you are a dog.
Ace rag is not really a hand you can outplay people with very much.

edit:

Just read ILP's last argument, and it reminded me why he was is my favorite poster.

Are we really that confident if we hit an A on the flop...if the answer is no in this brutal OOP spot then a call is fine. Unless i have REALLY REALLY good reads (like i can narrow down both people to almost the exact 2 cards) i never raise this spot preflop.


As far as postflop here, i pretty sure im folding the turn. That river card just cost us another bet and I agree with the rest of the ballers, Turn is where we decide if we're SD bound, and we are not.