BVB river bluff spot - Small Stakes Shorthanded Poker

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BVB river bluff spot

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04-03-2008 , 12:34 AM

NinaWilliams

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,533

Villain is 30/15, Slightly loose passive, I have no idea how showdown bound they are.

Absolute Poker $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with J

4 folds, SB raises, Hero calls

Flop: (4 SB) T

(2 players)
SB bets, Hero raises, SB calls

Turn: (4 BB) 7

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

River: (6 BB) 3

(2 players)
SB checks, Hero

04-03-2008 , 12:44 AM

Nick C

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 15,555

I guess you might as well give it a try. You're going to lose to AQ/AJ/QJ if you don't. Of course, you may lose to those hands anyway . . .

04-03-2008 , 12:48 AM

mntbikr15

banned

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,404

Quote:

Originally Posted by Nick C

I guess you might as well give it a try. You're going to lose to AQ/AJ/QJ if you don't. Of course, you WILL lose to those hands anyway . . .

fyp

04-03-2008 , 12:53 AM

Leader

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jan 2005 Posts: 11,677

You're pretty much trying to bluff QJ/Q9 and he probably semi-bluffs at least QJ some. If he's here with A-high, he's hardly ever folding imo. I don't think it's worth it.

edit: maybe he's not semi-bluffing QJ since he'd have to put in a bigger bluff then is typical. I'm not sure that's enough though. Math problem imo.

04-03-2008 , 12:55 AM

Nick C

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Sep 2004 Posts: 15,555

Quote:

Originally Posted by mntbikr15

fyp

If you know Absolute 10/20, then you're probably right. I'm unfamiliar with both the site and the limit.

04-03-2008 , 01:34 AM

NinaWilliams

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,533

Quote:

Originally Posted by Leader

Yeah, I've done the math and bluffing earns about .04bb give or take assuming he always folds A high. My question is basically, "how often do I get a fold from A high, and how often does he need to fold A high for a bluff to be profitable"

04-03-2008 , 01:38 AM

vmacosta

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,060

what range are you giving this guy?

04-03-2008 , 02:21 AM

NinaWilliams

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,533

Quote:

Originally Posted by vmacosta

what range are you giving this guy?

A range of most pocket pairs, A high with a gutshot(I dont think A9 gets this far, but I could be wrong), T's down to about T8s, and K4-K9(KT+ puts in more action). Also QJ and J9.

04-03-2008 , 03:11 AM

MitchL

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 8,521

I might 3bet pf, but I dont dislike just calling. You just get to use your position better against a passive. I would be inclined to bet, but its close. If he calls with a pair or A high so be it, but shipping to Qj or Q9 would tilt me hard.

04-03-2008 , 12:33 PM

#10

mntbikr15

banned

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,404

Who was it?

04-04-2008 , 02:29 AM

#11

lippy

Carpal \'Tunnel

Join Date: May 2006 Posts: 8,323

I think a bet is -EV here, he's never folding his stupid PP or ace high. That being said, barreling off here isn't that bad IMO. Just remember he'll be calling you down light if he calls here.

04-04-2008 , 05:59 AM

#12

pgon

newbie

Join Date: Mar 2008 Posts: 43

what's your image at the table ?
consider his point of view : if he can beat QJ he's definitely calling the river especially if you've been caught checking the river whenever you have a marginal hand capable of winning at showdown (which is usually what people do, they check with bottom pair or middle pair no kicker).

Thus, I'd say he really depends on your image, not only on his.

04-04-2008 , 12:36 PM

#13

mntbikr15

banned

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,404

Quote:

Originally Posted by mntbikr15

Who was it?

04-04-2008 , 12:48 PM

#14

OX45AL

grinder

Join Date: Jan 2007 Posts: 568

FYP? what does this mean?
thanks

04-04-2008 , 02:08 PM

#15

NinaWilliams

Pooh-Bah

Join Date: Aug 2005 Posts: 4,533

Quote:

Originally Posted by mntbikr15

jwarren

04-04-2008 , 02:15 PM

#16

mntbikr15

banned

Join Date: May 2004 Posts: 2,404

Meh, I havent played him enough to recall anything.

Given that I dont think hes around much and as such there is little value in creating the image that a bet would (which imo is the leading reason to bet) create.

04-04-2008 , 02:26 PM

#17

Tryptamean

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Join Date: Dec 2005 Posts: 9,844

just check it down. the goal of semi-bluffing the flop is to push him off Qx w/ no draw, or total cheese that you beat anyway but dont want to show down against. when he calls the turn, those hands can be pretty well eliminated.

04-04-2008 , 07:46 PM

#18

vmacosta

veteran

Join Date: Jul 2004 Posts: 3,060

yeah i always bluff here and im guessing its a small leak.

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