Information

- villain 29/4 17% BT steal 54 hands agg 0.6

Hand

Preflop: Hero is BB with 2 A
2 folds, BTN raises, SB folds, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) 7 7 Q (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets,

Hero?

Questions

1. Should I had folded Preflop?
2. What is my plan, because I do beat KT,KJ,JT or just instant muck?
3. How can I analyse this in a mathematical way if it is profitable to go to SD, this will help me in future situations

Again thanks in advance,

Johan

If you assume your opponent will triple barrel, you look at the price you're paying to get to showdown(2.5 big bets) then compare that to the payoff(4.75 big bets). Use these numbers to figure out the equity you need to showdown: 4.75:2.5= 34.5% equity needed to showdown against a three barrel. See "Theory of Poker": Effective odds.

I might fold preflop against such a tight range but I haven't done the analysis. I call the flop but I'm not happy about it since against such a tight range it might be a mistake.

I played a bit with stove and noticed we have

Preflop vs. a 17% BT steal which is very tight.


Equity Winst Split
BU 64.98% 63.35% 1.63% { 66+, A9s+, KTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
BB 35.02% 33.39% 1.63% { Ah2c }



On the flop we have:



Board: 7sQc7c
Equity Winst Split
BU 72.40% 66.68% 5.72% { 66+, A9s+, KTs+, ATo+, KJo+ }
BB 27.60% 21.88% 5.72% { Ah2c }


So combined this with the math you did Bob, I guess we have to let this one go. I think your also right about preflop and we should had folded.

I think my mind plays tricks with me, because in poker we are trying to make the right decisions based on the available information we have on villain and the cards etc. I am using the information from HEM steal BT % for my assumptions, but still I think, what if villain is a bit looser right now in this hand? Our equity will change drastically, just by this one thought. I am using just one little thing out of HEM to draw conclusions for the whole hand and make villain the tightest player on earth.
Just wanted to share this bladie bladie bla

The math I gave was just a baseline. I doubt someone with those stats is going to charge you the whole 2.5 big bets to get to showdown. If you combine the math with board reading I think you can make some more peels then the math suggests. So even after seeing your stoves I still defend and peel the flop.

Over 54 hands, he has had the button around 9 times. This is not enough to be confident about his 17 percent button open. We all have runs where we pick up rubbish hands on the button for several orbits. I would be interested to know how many of those 9 hands were folded around to him on the button.

Still, if he is basically a limper who only raises when he gets big cards you aren't doing so great. Perhaps its fair to assume from his overall stats that he is this type of player.

Long ago the two-letter abbreviation for Button was standardized to BN.

The criticial error here is relying on the 17% button steal stat with only 54 hands on the player. I'm guessing that in this instance 17% steals is specifically 1-in-6, an almost completely insignificant statistic.

Furthermore it is frequently, perhaps usually, the case that tight/passive players such as 29/4 are not raising their best hands. Often they slowplay premium hands preflop (and postflop) and steal with much weaker hands. The point being that even if he truly does steal 17%, it may not be his best 17% or anything close to it.

When playing you must assume something about your opponent even though it probably isn't true. Opening 40% OTB is roughly normal, but 29/4 and 1-in-6 both hint that Villain is on the conservative side so some adjustment is appropriate. I would use top 30% as a working range for Villain's hand. In practical terms this means play normally but be conservative in close decisions.

Notice the philosophy of using statistics to improve my play without making extreme decisions based on minimal evidence.

Hero has over 40% equity on the flop and it is clear that you need to play this. The normal thing to do is call the flop and await developments. With so much chop potential and hidden outs passive play is more recommended than usual. For example I would hate to bet-fold on the turn because I almost always have outs and often a lot of outs.

Thanks Stellarwind

You make the game always look so easy, and I wonder why I make it myself so difficult and make such extreme adjustments based on so little information.

I think I have to use the knowledge about certain players/stats/types that over the years has been defined in this forum and other trainingsites to build a kind of foundation, if we have a small samplesize.

And if the game continues and we gather more pieces of the puzzle we can refine or tactics more vs. a player.

yep, as was mentioned the sample size is way too small to put emphasis on it. I would rather assume he was std TAG with stats and samples like that.
And no matter what, folding A2o in BB vs BTN raise is almost always a really big mistake.
Flop is also pretty good for our hand so folding is still out of the question. We beat a ton of a std opening range and we also have a lot of outs vs the hands that do beat us.

btw, its only natural that these topics appear both complicated and counterintuitive a lot of the time. Afaik there are no shortcuts for getting a better grasp for it other than doing the work yourself (like u are doing)

Pre: Clown, you are way too tight pre based on the posts I have been reading. Never fold Ax for one bet in he BB pre. Ever. Against anyone. Especially against a button open.

Flop: you beat a lot more than just the hands you mentioned. Learn to play pre-flop, and you will understand that BTN can have a huge range here. Most good players open 50+% on the button. You have a very easy calldown if the board looks halfway decent. My plan would be to call any non-broadway turn and then call any river. A possible exception might be a 9 on the turn and then a broadway river. But you should usually be calling down here.

As far as how to mathematically determine whether you should call down, calculate how often villain needs you to fold the flop for his cbet to be immediately profitable. In this case, since the pot is 4.5 SB, he needs you to fold 1/5.5 = 18.2% of the time (prolly slightly off due to rake) to show immediate profit on his cbet. If you fold A2 here, you are folding way more than 18.2% of the time. In fact, you are probably folding at least half the time off the top of my head. So basically, make sure you are folding no more than 18.2% of the time on the flop. You can do the same math to estimate how often he needs you to fold on each later street.

Additionally, you need to calculate how often you need to fold for villain to be able to profitably 3-barrel. He's going to have to fire 5 small bets, so pretty sure the answer is 5/12.5 = 40% of the time. So we need to plan on being very showdownbound on this board.

On the flop, call almost any piece.

On the turn, call most K highs when it bricks.

On the river, you can fold your K highs unless he is spewy, but you need to call most everything else.

That should give you a general idea.

Thanks unguarded for taking your time to reply to all my posts.

You right about a lot of things.
I have loosen up a bit preflop but always giving villain
to much credit for his actions and put him on a few hands instead of a range.

Also my mathematics is a huge problem, which turned me more into a feel player.

Crazy enough the range part behind has improved a bit , but that is because I played a ton of heads up and 6 max and reading other posts, watched vids (so again feel and I call it robotic), but I don't think if that's the right way to learn about ranges and why we take certain lines.

ty again,

Johan

This is too extreme. Frequently at full-ring, but also sometimes at 6-max, there are situations where you virtually know that your bad ace is dominated preflop. Furthermore you have no idea which of your two cards you need to hit. (For example with A2 you need a two to beat AQ but an ace to beat 88.)

Under these circumstances you do not want to defend Ax HU OOP. The 2/3 time you miss the flop you will have to fold. The 1/3 time you make a pair you won't know if your hand is good. OOP this will result in frequently losing an extra BB with your bad hands compared to what you win with your good hands. Of course you will continue these hands to showdown anyway but you cannot expect to win enough money with them to recoup your preflop investment. Only in the rare cases where you flop two pair or trips will you really do well.

I meant at 6-max, this being a shorthanded forum. You can fold trash aces in full ring.