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Blind battle with AK Blind battle with AK

07-02-2009 , 12:37 PM
Unclekemp is 38/28/1.5 wtsd 49.

Grabbed by Holdem Manager
Limit Holdem $5(BB) IPoker
Hero ($257)
BB ($361)
UTG ($225)
UTG+1 ($343)
CO ($214)
BTN ($477)

Dealt to Hero AK

fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero raises to $10, unclekemp2006 raises to $15, Hero raises to $20, unclekemp2006 calls $5,

FLOP ($40) 35Q

Hero bets $5, unclekemp2006 calls $5,

TURN ($50) 35QK

Hero bets $10, unclekemp2006 raises to $20

Is this an easy 3-bet?
07-02-2009 , 04:43 PM
at first I was saying no, but then I realized unless he has a flush he wont cap it. So yeah you can get value out of worse K's and strong/weak Q's. Depends alot on the history between you two.
07-02-2009 , 07:16 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by MSDJ
Is this an easy 3-bet?
I'm going to say no, it's not easy, since I probably just call down.

Villain is pretty aggro, so I'm thinking we probably are ahead a lot. But I really start hating my hand if Villain raises again. And I'm not the type to 3-bet/fold TPTK in a blind battle.
07-02-2009 , 10:26 PM
I certainly don't think it's an easy 3bet.

For one, the times you are behind villain is very likely going to cap so that's bad. I dunno, this is one of those spots that, the times I 3bet and he just calls and calls the river and I win I end up feeling very fortunate.


On the other hand I feel like an idiot the times I call and he checks behind the river with Q J or whatever.
07-02-2009 , 10:27 PM
OK I just reread the hand and given the preflop action I think you need to just call here.
07-03-2009 , 12:06 AM
i just call down, but i'm a puss
07-03-2009 , 02:32 AM
The relevant pieces of information here are whether he will always semibluff flush draws on the flop, and how often he'll wait for the turn with monsters. My instinct is that a 38/28 will jam the flop with many hands that are now beating you, therefore Kx makes up a large portion of his range. His AF may suggest otherwise, but it's a pretty useless stat, particularly if we don't even know how many hands you have on the guy. Also, WTSD of 49 leads me to believe that he's not raise/folding here a lot.
07-03-2009 , 02:52 AM
Would anyone think of calling and then check/raisin safe rivers?
07-03-2009 , 03:18 AM
The only hands in vllain's range that you beat are KJ, KT and perhaps K9; I would have expected him to raise Qx on the flop and call down with any pp. The hands that beat you are KQ, flushes and any two pair or set. You tie against AK.

Seems like a calldown to me, you don't beat enough hands to raise (either turn or river).
07-03-2009 , 06:08 PM
I agree with Buddha thinking he would probably give more action with a FD on the flop making Kx a large portion of his range. Question is how many of his Kx hands is he peeling with and will he always be raising a K on this turn?

I still think calling down is probably best. He could even be going crazy with a lower pair or a one card FD, I've seen this alot. An aggressive guy like this is not likely to be checking behind rivers so I think we will always be getting an extra bet on the river if he is on air or a worse hand.
07-03-2009 , 07:27 PM
I probably just call down here unless I know he raises the turn very light. Maybe if he as a win showdown when raise turn stat below 50% over a good sample it could be worth a 3 bet.
07-03-2009 , 07:43 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by GiantBuddha
The relevant pieces of information here are whether he will always semibluff flush draws on the flop, and how often he'll wait for the turn with monsters. My instinct is that a 38/28 will jam the flop with many hands that are now beating you, therefore Kx makes up a large portion of his range. His AF may suggest otherwise, but it's a pretty useless stat, particularly if we don't even know how many hands you have on the guy. Also, WTSD of 49 leads me to believe that he's not raise/folding here a lot.
this, flop tendencies = important, also i think your image is fairly important. if youre on the tight side and cap a tight range he might decide not to semibluff that flop.
07-04-2009 , 12:17 PM
I think you have to figure out what your going to do on the river if you get capped before you figure out if you want to 3 bet this. If you 3bet this and get capped are your C/C the river or C/f? (assuming another heart doesn't hit, If a heart hits on the river after he caps the turn the it's clearly a fold)

I probably just call the raise and if a non heart under a T falls maybe donk the turn to avoid the chance that your best hand get checked through. I would also call if i get raised. Under this situation you will lose 3 bets if you have the worst hand. If you 3bet the turn and get capped you are also losing 3 bets, maybe even 4 if you c/c the river. I think you also make about the same with a hand that you are ahead with. If he is behind he is more likely to call you river donk bet if you just called his turn raise if he has a worse hand.

I'm almost getting confused reading this....

Last edited by gates52; 07-04-2009 at 12:27 PM.

      
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