MP is a 28/20 type.
BTN is unknown.

I take it the flop/turn are standard. MP tanked on the flop so I figure he has AK/AQ/AJ 100% of the time. On the river I'm not worried about him overcalling.

So are we good 1/15 here against this unknown?

Poker Stars $5/$10 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
The Official 2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked.com

Pre Flop: (1.4 SB) Hero is UTG with 8 A
Hero raises, MP 3-bets, 1 fold, BTN caps!, 2 folds, Hero calls, MP calls

Flop: (13.4 SB) T 3 8 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets, Hero raises, MP calls, BTN 3-bets, Hero calls, MP calls

Turn: (11.2 BB) J (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets, Hero calls, MP calls

River: (14.2 BB) 4 (3 players)
Hero checks, MP checks, BTN bets, Hero

I think its time to fold on the river. You sure put a lot of money in the pot with a pretty weak hand. Most decisions makes sense though, but it's really tough to see any hand you beat on the river, and 3rd place seems like a realistic possibility.

i think pf is a clear fold, you have domination issues and have the worst position. as played, i think you gotta pay off on river, btn could be overplaying AK/AQ of spades or is just a maniac we don't know about yet.

A8o yes, A8s NO.

looks like a fold. if MP has AK/AQ it reduces the number of those combos in BTN's range. he needs to be totally spazzing out with AQss/AKss/KQss or 77-55/22 against 2 opponents.

though it happens it may not justify calling even at these odds. also if you fold MP may call and you get to see BTN's hand.

I feel HU this is a call but with MP in the hand too, not only does it increase the chance the you have the worst hand but also decreases the chances BTN is bluffing/betting worse since any thinking player prob won't bluff river against 2 (what appears to be showdown bound) players.

Had MP folded earlier you still beat a bunch of hands.

Ah i hate this spot , in these games id say people are passive enough to justify folding here vs a total unkown. I would not fold myself (not rly sure if its -EV or not). The best advice would be to try and come up with a legitimate range in stove for BTN by the river and grind out math on whether or not getting 15-1 is a profitable call. I would do this but i don't know how to do the math on the EV of calling.

I often open A2s from UTG. I also think that A4s is beyond a doubt proven to be a winner from UTG for a decent player.

c/f the turn, wtf

meh, I think turn is close. We have between 2 and 5 outs most of the time and the best hand once a blue moon.

river though is a pretty clear fold imo

On the turn I'm getting 12:1 (because MP will overcall) and I feel like I have 4ish outs most of the time so I don't quite want to fold there yet.

Anyways I called the river hoping to find myself a maniac bombing away with 55, he had KK, oh well.

MP has a flush draw enough here that we have to disable our fold button and call and hope to see MP fold and then see the pot shipped our way.

to all those that say LOL when i make a comment that no one ever folds a pair


this is what im talking about

Hmm, well, if we narrow Button's range to AA-TT and AsKs and AsQs specifically and don't discount at all, then you're a 21:2 dog to him. Meanwhile, I'm not convinced you have MP beat (for instance, you no longer have AJ beat, you were never ahead of 99, and even QQ might be deciding between a 3-bet and a cold-call on the flop), but I'd imagine that usually his hand is worse than yours.

The idea of assigning AQ and AK to MP and seeing what it does to Button's range is interesting. It also sounds complicated, but I'm going to simply plug it into Stove and see what we get . . .

Done. Apparently with those ranges and no weighting, you're a 93.2/6.8 dog to have the best hand (or about 13.7 to 1).

If we add in AJ for MP, you drop to 4.9 percent (or about 19.4 to 1).

Weighting would probably make matters worse (maybe Button gives up on the river sometimes 3-handed with A-high). But then there's always some chance that our unknown Button is a maniac or is spazzing out or is overplaying 77 or has been posturing with AKo or something.

Anyway, apparently the decision is at least vaguely close. Honestly, I probably would look him up at the table since the pot is huge and I can think of worse reasonable hands than mine for Button (and there's no guarantee he's even reasonable) and I want someone to look him up and I'm not sure that MP will.

I have a hard time folding this to an unknown getting a bajillion to one with the flush draw missing. Give this guy some stats and I might be able to fold, although maybe I'm a little slanted after last night's aggro monkey fest. MP could have easily gotten to the river with AQ/AK.

Fold this river, I think we are done for. Turn call is close, but with position I think we call.

I'd fold to the preflop cap, I'm really not clear on the flop c/r. I mean, we are either pretty screwed or we just reverse-dominated a big Ace, so it's not like we need protection except against KQ/KJ/QJ specifically. I think if you plugged this into stove, we're poorly off equity-wise against reasonable 3-bet/caps vs. an UTG raise.

PF it's suited, so call


flop, if we have the best hand, we need to face the other two cold since this is a huge ****ing pot.

we get 3bet, so we are probably losing.

i know no one ever folds pairs, but since it's 3 ways on the turn, i'm c/f the turn. I don't hate peeling to try to hit to win, but i'm not calling the turn and river UI here