Join Date: Oct 2007
Posts: 589
wow, 3rd attempt at replying to this.
at first i thought this was an auto b/f, given how light villain is gonna call us with his 60% sd stat. then i stoved it, with the following assumptions:
1. villain plays up to his turn check with 100% of hands (dodgy i know, but hey, he's a fish).
2. he'll c/r turn with a set or better, and we'll fold.
3. he'll call with Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx, Tx, 5x, all pp, all spades, 98, 43, 42, 32.
4. we'll check behind on the river. (we could luckbox a 7, but too much work...)
with that range he calls 77.8%, c/r 3% and folds 19.2% of the time. when he calls, our equity is 45.24%.
so overall ev(bet) = (0.192)(3bb) + (0.03)(-1bb) + (0.778)[(0.4524)(4bb) + (0.5476)(-1bb)]
= 1.8bb
now, we have to now work out what happens if we check. i'm gonna assume we won't put in any more bets, and he won't ever bet the river with worse than 77. our ev for showing down is just our equity on the turn vs a random hand, which is 54.1%
overall ev(check) = (0.541)(3bb) = 1.62bb
so it looks like it's really close, with betting being slightly better vs this very specific villain, but keep in mind the assumptions.