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bet this turn? bet this turn?

05-29-2008 , 10:09 AM
6 max on Stars.

SB: 62/3/.19 50 hands. 60% showdown. pretty much a calling station. Haven't seen him bluff. He will just call down if he has any pair no matter how good.

Folded to SB who completes, I Raise in BB with 7d7c, SB calls.

Flop: 5sQdAh

SB checks, I bet, SB calls

Turn: 5sQdAhJs

SB checks, What is my plan?
05-29-2008 , 10:12 AM
I check and basically give up. You will win occasionally though when you either spike a 7 or Villain checks his 54o on the river and you check it down.

Edit: I guess I should add that I don't even think it's close. Unless Villain is an incredibly loose peeler, you beat 5x, some PPs, the wheel gutshots, and that's it. The broadway gutshots, for instance, all have at least a pair on that turn card. So you're a dog to Villain's range, you have no folding equity, the pot is small, and also he's unlikely to bluff you off of the best hand when you have him beat.
05-29-2008 , 01:38 PM
I definitely check behind. I can be convinced to fold on the river, but just how sure are you that he won't bluff?
05-29-2008 , 01:54 PM
my plan is to give up and never ever call a river bet from this guy UI.
05-30-2008 , 05:23 AM
Check behind, fold river UI.

Good seat selection, btw!
05-30-2008 , 08:54 AM
I bet/fold turn and check behind river.
05-30-2008 , 10:16 AM
check fold turn
05-30-2008 , 11:26 AM
wow, 3rd attempt at replying to this.

at first i thought this was an auto b/f, given how light villain is gonna call us with his 60% sd stat. then i stoved it, with the following assumptions:

1. villain plays up to his turn check with 100% of hands (dodgy i know, but hey, he's a fish).
2. he'll c/r turn with a set or better, and we'll fold.
3. he'll call with Ax, Kx, Qx, Jx, Tx, 5x, all pp, all spades, 98, 43, 42, 32.
4. we'll check behind on the river. (we could luckbox a 7, but too much work...)


with that range he calls 77.8%, c/r 3% and folds 19.2% of the time. when he calls, our equity is 45.24%.

so overall ev(bet) = (0.192)(3bb) + (0.03)(-1bb) + (0.778)[(0.4524)(4bb) + (0.5476)(-1bb)]
= 1.8bb

now, we have to now work out what happens if we check. i'm gonna assume we won't put in any more bets, and he won't ever bet the river with worse than 77. our ev for showing down is just our equity on the turn vs a random hand, which is 54.1%

overall ev(check) = (0.541)(3bb) = 1.62bb

so it looks like it's really close, with betting being slightly better vs this very specific villain, but keep in mind the assumptions.
05-30-2008 , 06:06 PM
I think you have to ask yourself 2 questions to find the right solution:
1. How loosely does he peel the flop, i.e. can his flopcall be any2?
2. Which hands will he bet after your turn cb?

If he's peeling 100% than b/f turn seems pretty good to me (as TX calculation shows), and it becomes even stronger if villain is able to bet total trash on the river after your turn check (some CS bet virtually any2 when you check to them).
05-30-2008 , 08:46 PM
Check behind and fold if he bets.

he is too passive to bluff river or even bet it with a lot of better hands

Because he is so passive you can pretty much decide whether you want to put in 1 bet on the turn and check behind or check behind turn and let river check through. Since you dont have eq > 50% I prefer to just check it down

      
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