Villain was about 28/16 over around 100 hands.

Full Tilt Poker $0.50/$1 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
DeucesCracked Poker Videos Hand History Converter

Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with A K
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) T 2 6 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero calls

Turn: (3.25 BB) Q (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (3.25 BB) 8 (2 players)
BB bets, Hero ...?

Flop - I felt that it was reasonable to call villain's donk with my TP and bdsd outs. Plus, I might have the best hand.

Turn - Villain had c/r me on the turn earlier in the session, when I then folded AQ ui. So, I thought that it made sense to take a free card when I picked up outs to the straight.

River - I felt that villain could be taking a stab at the pot after I checked behind on the turn, and the 8 seemed like a relative brick. So, I thought that now I was at showdown that my ui AK was a pretty good bluff catcher.

Thoughts on postflop ?

It is all dependent on what his flop donk means, but I think your reasoning is sound. Routinely the donk means a draw or less-than-top-pair, in which case he is ahead. But there are people who will make a cold bluff in hopes they can take the pot away from someone whose overs missed.

But then again, the pot is so small, I doubt you are good 1:4. I'd expect to see a 2 or 6 most times.

Make a crying call and take a note. His donk may mean air, draw, weak made hand, or a strong hand hoping to 3!, and now you know.

River 8 is totally not a brick. Hits 78, 89, 79. Not many bluffing hands left except 43s, 54s or totally random hand. Valuebetting range is pretty high (any pair or better). So I'd fold.

he knows you're calling with AK/AJ and he knows he can value bet any pair or draw against you and check anything less than AK hi

think you should have fired the turn but if you do you have to be prepared to fire the river on good cards too

I fold. small pot and that board is all over his BB pf calling range.

For donk flop 40%+ I call.
For donk flop 40%- I fold.
For donk flop 50%+ I raise flop for value.

fyp


i snap fold this river, you beat nothing

It is more important with what they donk rather than how much they donk.

Also, you cant expect donk flop% to be meaningful at a sample of 100 hands for a 28 VPIP guy.

I obv meant river for first 2. Obv I am not folding flop no matter what.
I also see nothing wrong with raising monkeys that like their bet button too much, when I am ahead.

You seam to base your decision on he either has pair or a draw. 40%+ donkers include UI Axs in their ranges. No fing way I am folding river to one of those.

Obv the 2 are correlated, especially when the %-tage grows past 40-50%. You flop a pair 33% of the time, let's see so what does 40-50% donk tell you? Using CR% and fold to flop cbet% in conjunction with donk% gives a pretty clear picture for high samples sizes. I aggree 100h is not enough.

40% of ALL donkers maybe. But 40% of 28/16 type donkers is a pretty optimistic estimation. You need a pretty good read that he’s donking wide to call this river.

i fold too

not to "put him on a hand", but this will be Tx most of the time imo. plus all the draws have been completed

It looks like this to me

Tx
Rivered 8 (flop gutshot)
Fancy turn c:r whiff

For those that call, list some hands he might play this way that we are beating

54/43/A3/A4/A5, this could be wider or narrower with more flop stats, that we probably don't have here.

I can answer that: Air.

You are only getting 4:1 on a call. I am too lazy to count but how many combos contain an 8, T, 2, 6 or 79? A **** ton. (and we are not even counting discounted FPS queens and FD combos).

Its a small pot. Save your hero call downs for bigger pots.

Call the river and I like it.
He can have quite a wide range. His line looks like a non-showdownable hand or a very strong hand like top pair or better. Second pair might be possible, as well.

Keep in mind i did say I would only call vs abnormally high donk% coupled with other flop stats (like low fold to flop cbet).
I understand that someone with 26/18 stats is unlikely to have a high donk flop %, but it is possible and I would consider using that stat if I have 5+ instances of flop donks on villain.

we calling if the board pairs on the river and he bets?

id toss it in the muck on any non A, K or J river. i see a T about 9/10 here

Thankyou everyone for your responses.

This seems quite perceptive, although I would imagine that some donks might also be top pair.

I can see now that all the draws got there in this hand by the river, and so folding makes sense.

I suppose I wanted to know what villain was donking the flop with, and so I called hoping to see air or a weaker Ax.

Villain showed J7.

So he donked his fd on the flop, attempted to c/r the turn when he made his draw, and then bet out on the river after I had checked behind on the turn.

nope. if he had a draw on turn he would bet.


when he checks the turn you are losing


opposite world again

We beat pretty close to nothing on the river. Just because we still beat a tiny fraction of hands doesn't mean we're going to have 20% equity and can call getting 4-1.