Full Tilt 8/16 Hold'em (6 handed) Full Tilt Converter Tool from FlopTurnRiver.com (Format: 2+2 Forums)

Sorry, Hud's got nothing on this guy.

Preflop: Hero is SB with 9, 9.
2 folds, CO raises, 1 fold, Hero 3-bets, 1 fold, CO calls.

Flop: (7.50 SB) A, T, 8 (2 players)
Hero bets, CO calls.

Turn: (4.75 BB) J (2 players)
Hero checks, CO checks.

River: (4.75 BB) 6 (2 players)
Hero

you are not c/f'ing right? if it's between c/c and b/f i'd much rather go for b/f. i think he calls with more worse hands (8x, pp's)than he bets if you check.

Nobody just folds A high flops anymore. I can't really see what he's going to fold though on the turn now. Everything reasonable in his range either has a draw or a better hand. I can't see how betting is good on the river. Your line looks exactly like the hand you have so he's going to call with any pair.

I c/c to induce a bluff. The only thing he calls you with is K8 and I think he's likely to fold that to a bet, but might bet it if you check. My current session has me catching bluffs on the river left and right when I check the turn.

Since you don't know this guy, betting could induce a bluff raise with a busted spade draw.

Also, he may check behind a better hand, saving you a bet.

I would check/fold. If we can't check/fold I don't think the benefits of him paying off a worse hand (worse pocket pairs might not even payoff) outweigh the benefits of him checking behind a better hand, so I'd rather check/call in that case.

On this river you beat K8/87/98 and maybe some PPs. The other 4 billion hands he could have here beat you. Check-fold. A quick poker stove of a 25% stealer gives you about 8% equity on the river.

Also, this is a good flop to check. His folding range on this flop has little equity, especially since we hold a spade, so giving that part of his range a free card probably makes you more money than betting to fold out his small equity.

I would estimate that his calling range has >55% equity since the worst part of his calling range has a gutshot + 2 overcards, which contain 37% equity.

So, worst case scenario is allowing him to check behind with 37% equity. However, at least some of the time he will bet that hand. And, at least some of the time he will check behind a hand like JT/QT/KT, which have 84% equity.

His raising range has you smoked.

Certainly, checking after a 3-bet HU feels dirty but I'm convinced it's correct in this spot and a few others.

First of all.

- A random 8/16 FT guy has more 8x hands in his range than those

Second of all

- He doesnt have: Ax, KQ, Q9, 97, JT, T8, J8, 88 and TT
- In all likelyhood he doesnt have: KJ, QJ, J9, J7s, J6s
- He certainly doesnt have a flush


This leaves Tx and 66 that beats 88. I will never ever c/f here and I dont know how you came up with 8% Spydog..?

Check/call, bc he might check back better hands that he would call a bet with. I think this scenario is more likely than him having K or Q8 and calling a bet with it.

I was wrong about 8% because I took out some hands but not all of them. I ended up around 15% making this pretty close. Since he may not bet some of his lower range on the river it's probably a fold.

Also, my assumption was a top 25% stealer, which I think is a realistic assumption based on an unknown CO.

We both know it really doesn't matter whether we fold or call. There's little EV to be squeezed out of that decision.

I think the flop decision is more worthy of a discussion because I think it's more EV to check but I could be wrong (highly unlikely ). But, since I'm probably the only 2+2er who would ever consider checking after 3-betting HU I'm probably not going to get much more than the standard rebuttals.

I haven't played FT in awhile, maybe it is a bad fold with the lagtards there. I think you'll see KJ/QJ here some of the time though, and should consider some hands like weak Ax although maybe highly discounted.

I think it would be closer to a fold at say stars 5/10, lately I've seen even seen tight TAGs check behind Ax here, and sometimes even the river!

It seems no good result can happen with the flop bet with regards to getting value or folding a better hand, but if we check it puts us in an awkward position on the turn, especially against an unknown. What is your plan on a blank turn when you check/call?

Yeah

We cant completely discount Ax. I agree. And Jx is in his range.

My point was that the fact the turn checked through makes this a tough c/f to make.

If he had bet the turn I would have been much more inclined to c/f even with the 2BB larger pot



BTW about checking the flop.

I dont hate that if we have reason to believe villain will bluff for us. The value of picking of a 3 barrel bluff here is pretty big. But IMO we need a read that villain is somewhat bad before we start doing that. In general when 3-betting PF and then checking the flop you will not see a lot of crazy 3-barrels - tho my experience here is rather limited.

Checking certainly puts us in an awkward position on the turn. But, if we bet and he calls then it's just as awkward, no?

If I check-call the flop I am planning on showing down against an unknown unless a non-spade King hits on the turn.

The harder part for me is deciding what to do on the turn if he checks behind on the flop.

so oink, you still haven't said what line you prefer: blocking bet, c/c, or c/f?

dunno rzk.

You tell me?

I belive both b/f and c/c is better than c/f.

Here's another thing to think about on the river.

We need 15% equity to call. Let's say we have 20% equity (although I think we only have 15%). It's still probably a check-fold. Doesn't make sense, does it?

In a simple sense, he's got the best hand 80 times on this river and the worst hand 20 times. However, he doesn't bet all 100 hands. Will he turn 8x/PP into a bluff on the river? Doubtful, because he had that chance on the turn and passed it up. I'd say he checks behind 50% of the time with the hands we beat. But, I don't think he's checking his better hands behind 50% of the time so his betting range on this river is stronger than his actual range, which includes hands he checks behind.

If he passes on 20 of his better hands and 10 of his worse hands then our equity against his betting range is < 15%, making check-fold a better option than check-call.

Bet-fold has some of the same implications because he isn't calling 100% of his range and an unknown may bluff-raise our weird line.

Like anyone else who has played for a while I've gone thru a few phases. I stopped screwplaying turns entirely because it seemed the 5/10 Stars Lagtags had gotten smart enough to realize nobody just c/f's w/ initiative very often, so they're capable of checking the turn. FT definitely has more "sponges" who just bet because you checked.

I think the majority would say that his turn check means it is more likely that the river bet is a bluff, but I am not sure about that.

I think check/call looks like the best line after reading the responses. Checking the flop is not an option in my opinion. This is a scary flop and you need to bet it. The problem is that it's coordinated and a lot of his range has gutshots and such that are going to call anyway, but you can fold those out on the turn. Obviously, the turn card is bad so that plan goes out the window now. Being out of position on that board, with that hand against a good or unknown opponent is a tough spot all around. I think betting the flop and betting a safe turn is the line. I think MacGuyV played it well as long as he check/calls the river.

I wouldn't rule out a made hand here. Hero runs up the white flag on the turn. If villain made a K high flush, or broadway with the Ks, with the A/J/Ts on the board and the Ks in his hand unless Hero holds QQ/99 with the Q/9s villain may get more value by checking.

There aren't very many low/mid stakes players that savvy but it's possible. If villain is more typical of players at these stakes he could very well be timid and not betting Jx/Tx, especially with the K/Qs in hand. For some reason many villains at these stakes are just strongly disinclined to build pots on the big streets based on pot equity but will do so fairly liberally based on perceived fold equity. I guess the the thinking is "I have a nice draw I don't want to get charged".

His hand looks so much like KJ/QJ/KT/QT, often with the K or Q of spades. The real question is how likely he has 8x here and how often he'll bet it when checked to. Against a weak passive, I'd check/fold the river. Against a tenacious value bettor, I'd check/call the river. Against an unknown, I lose a lot of value checking the river since I don't know the proper response and I assume 8x is not folding given this action, so I just bet/fold. I also feel 99.99% confident that an unknown isn't checking behind this turn with the intention of bluff raising the river.

Tenacious value bettors are usually decent hand readers. A decent hand reader would never bet this river with a worse hand.