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4 card flush bluff? 4 card flush bluff?

06-11-2008 , 04:14 AM
Poker Stars $0.10/$0.20 Limit Hold'em - 5 players
2+2 Hand Converter Powered By DeucesCracked

Pre Flop: Hero is BB with A Q
UTG calls, 1 fold, BTN calls, SB calls, Hero raises, UTG calls, BTN calls, SB calls

Flop: (8 SB) Q 5 6 (4 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, UTG folds, BTN folds, SB calls

Turn: (5 BB) 7 (2 players)
SB checks, Hero bets, SB calls

River: (7 BB) J (2 players)
SB checks, Hero checks


Hi, so this has been happening a lot to me lately at these lower limits. SB is 40 / 12.7 / 4.3 With such a strong hand, and having bet every street before, should i bet / fold the river?
06-11-2008 , 04:27 AM
It seems that bet/fold is the wrong play.

If he has made his flush, and call or raise you, you will not get any value.

If he hasn't made his flush, and call you - thats the only case, when you get value. But he will very likely fold to you bet (he will hardly call you without a heart), so you will hardly get any value.
If he hasn't made his flush and raise you as a bluff, you will not gain any value because you will fold to a raise. But I doubt he will bluff-raise often enough to justify bet/call.

So, check river seems the right play. Correct me plz if I am wrong.
06-11-2008 , 05:43 AM
Here's the thing--you don't want to get to the river when all you have is two overcards. Yes it's true that you can't stop it much of the time, but if hte SB has an AF of 4-point- whatever it is likely he'll bet after you check. Then you can raise. If he's on a draw you want to make him pay as much as you can, if hbe's on a bluff even a 40 VPIP will think about calling a check raise.

On the river a LAG who plays 40% of his hands will likely have at least a pair if he keeps calling like that. A good player(which he is not) might have something like TT or some other mid pocket pair and be playing way ahead or way behind.
If the question is should you bet fold the river, the answer depends on how often you think your opponent will fold. You equiuty against a range of 44+,A2s+,K2s+,Q4s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T9o at the end of the hand is 55.95%. I think you can value bet here if your equity is over 51%, but a fold to a raise would be a huge mistake since a LAG is more likely to check raise bluff. IT's close, and a check is not a horrible play but at these limits I think you can find a Even if you know you are beat you don't want to incourage a LAG to take shots at you on the river.
06-11-2008 , 06:06 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by gotmarc
I think you can value bet here if your equity is over 51%
This is wrong, you can value bet here if your equity is over 51% WHEN CALLED. You should calculate your equity not against his possible holdings, but against his possible holding with which he will call (i doubt he will call with 44, J8o, etc.).

      
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