Villain is pretty unknown but cold called the hand before and donked on QJJ flop in a 3 way pot, no showdown.


Poker Stars $10/$20 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is CO with 2 2
2 folds, Hero raises, 2 folds, BB calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) A 4 6 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB calls

Turn: (3.25 BB) K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero checks

River: (3.25 BB) 2 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets, BB raises, Hero ?

call + make note i guess. he cant really read u on betting here after uve alrdy showed weakness by checking behind the turn..

you should fold here. his play is perfectly consistent with Qh (or Jh). he knows that if you don't have a heart you'll just fold to his bet since from your turn check he knows you have nothing. he also knows that if you have a heart you have a pretty easy value bet. so c/r'ing with the nut flush is a very smart move on his part. since he called you on the flop he usually has a pair and will very rarely turn it into a fancy bluff hand. if he still has nothing and wanted to bluff almost everybody would just bet as a bluff rather than c/r. you are not good here 1 time in 7.25.

edit: also, from the gto point of view folding this hand is not exploitable since his bluff is pretty expensive.

Im not sure the average unknown that just coldcalled and donked a paired board knows all that stuff u r refering to. Still im not saying that calling is the play becouse I agree with your logic and we look pretty beat, but if I tend to do anything when I get in spots with good odds vs they guy mentioned im erring on the calling side.

I don't think that this is ever really a call... I agree 100% with dekan here. There is no way he takes this line with a worse hand than yours

sick spot.

Id prob end up calling as he is unknown and sounds a bit bad/erratic from the whatever read you have.

Are you giving up on the pot with your turn check? What rivers are you calling if he bets?

i insta fold as well.

Flop and turn tell us almost nothing about the suit(s) in Villain's hand, so, prior to any river action, he figures to have a flush ~36 percent of the time (probably a little more, given that a backdoor flush might swing a decision Villain considers otherwise to be close to a peel).

I'm pretty much incapable of folding flopped sets HU, so I'd be paying off here. But I'm not going to claim you'll be good often enough. Still, if this is a fold (and it might be), it's a fold based almost exclusively on Villain's river line on this board. I mean, the combos are otherwise way in favor of a call at 6:1.

Is betting this river correct? If in villians shoes how much hand do you need to call hero's bet.

FWIW, I've decided the 36-percent figure is probably too small. At the time I was giving it, I was thinking a flush draw would often get checkraised on the flop, and thus I was discounting a flush draw as a reason for a flop call. However, not everyone checkraises a flush draw here, and in fact the ace on the board would act as a deterrent for many players.

Still, even if we were to bump Villain's flushes all the way up to 50 percent prior to any river action, the fold (if the play is to fold) would still be based primarily on the river action.

Yeah, that's what I wanted to ask, too except Carmine types fast

Whats the worst hand u b/c here?

dunno, like 5h5. i realize there isn't much difference between the two hands, but that argument can't make its way up to Th9o so i stop it at the 5-high flush.

Is everyone alright with the turn check? I prefer a bet and make it the last money I put in the pot ui. It's pretty easy to fold to a c/r and we may fold out some 4s, 6s or pps without a heart, plus we charge a lone heart to draw. Once we check we're surrendering the hand unless we hit one of out two outs and the 2h is obv very dirty. I'd rather just bet and fold.

can't b/f here cus if he sembluff raises the Kh and or waits for turn with tp or 2 pair, ifs a pretty big mistake to fold

But is it really that big of a mistake? The pot is relatively small and villian probably has at least 15 outs. When we check the turn, are we planning on calling a river bet anyway? We can't really call a heart and another broadway card makes a bad situation look even worse. This doesn't look like a good spot for a turn value check, villian probably won't blindly fire a blank river.

I don't understand what you said about waiting for the turn with tp or 2 pair. If he does have us beat we're only drawing to 2 outs at best so we're not giving up much equity by folding. I'm open to being wrong but this turn looks alot like a b/f spot to me.

Sam,

Do you ever bet this turn vs an unknown?

I hate these spots. I think the turn is alot more interesting than the riv

No, I'm giving up on the turn.

Numbnuts, misread my own hand and thought we'd have a flush draw we are folding, so nevermind, I'm an idiot.