Full Tilt Poker $1/$2 Limit Hold'em - 6 players
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Pre Flop: (1.5 SB) Hero is BB with 7 J
3 folds, BTN raises, 1 fold, Hero calls

Flop: (4.5 SB) T 5 8 (2 players)
Hero checks, BTN bets, Hero raises, BTN calls

Turn: (4.25 BB) 2 (2 players)
Hero bets, BTN calls

River: (6.25 BB) 5 (2 players)
Hero ?

New table. I raised flop with my gutshot plus over hoping to fold out Ax, Kx, Qx. Fired turn.

Should I bluff or c/f river? Ax probably isn't folding if he called turn, but I think there are some no pair F draws plus K, Q highs that fold.

very drawy board and none of the draws got there, so if he is calling the turn, I would think he is calling the river.

I hate the flop c/r with a crap draw and OOP. Unless the draw is huge OOP or the villain is super foldy c/r with draws HU does not seam like a good play.


Turn bet is meh.


Now the river is where I'd like to stove a bit. Since you provided no reads, I am giving the villain a standard top 40% btn opening range here, I also assume no pairs+ ever fold here. I will do a separate analysis for no A-high folding and for a portion of A-highs folding as I think at 1/2 people may have learned to toss A2o etc in such spots.
We need to be right 16.6% of the time here for the bet to be correct.

This is what he has pre:
22+,A2s+,K2s+,Q6s+,J7s+,T7s+,97s+,87s,A3o+,K7o+,Q8 o+,J8o+,T9o

He cbets 100% of that range.

Since he only called, we can eliminate some of the hands he would've turbo 3 bet you. I left JT here as a weakest hand that only smooth calls.
So flop calling range is about:
99,77-66,44-22,AJs+,A9s-A2s,KJs+,K9s-K5s,QJs,Q9s-Q6s,J7s+,T9s,T7s,97s+,87s,AJo+,A9o-A2o,KJo+,K9o-K8o,QJo,Q9o,J9o+,T9o

After turn call we can eliminate a few no hand no draw hands and 22:
99,77-66,44-33,AJs+,A9s-A2s,KJs+,K9s-K7s, K5s,QJs,Q9s-Q6s,J7s+,T9s,T7s,97s+,87s,AJo+,A9o-A2o,KJo+,K8o,QJo,Q9o,J9o+,T9o

Stox combo is showing him having less than a-high 28% of the time here, so assuming this is also the same %-tage of the time that he folds...looks like we have a good bluff spot.

You can fold QJ, Q9, J9 type of hands.

I doubt villain will fold AJ+ or any pair after the river is a blank.

I would bet, you have no SD value so it is your only chance to win the pot and you have to fold him only 1 in 7 times.

I agree with this. I like a bet.

Any marginally decent villain will look you up with Ah here... and you actually beat many of the draws that missed. But since you created a bluff on the Flop and the draws all missed I'm okay to the fire the last barrel. But I feel like I'm choosing the least worst option between b/f and c/f.

tbh, I'd never make this play vs. an unknown. I think it's pretty spewy.