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LOL Row Coach...  peak is still here. LOL Row Coach...  peak is still here.

08-31-2015 , 03:35 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
Global oil demand decreasing is...bad news? Lol Jiggzzzz can spin any news into Peeeeeeeeeeekkkkk Oilllllllzzzzz nonsense
Depends on why it's decreasing, dip****... Not that you're ever honest about the real reason.
08-31-2015 , 03:38 PM
Is it decreasing because demand has been crushed by these astronomical 50 dollar oil prices?
08-31-2015 , 03:48 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
Is it decreasing because demand has been crushed by these astronomical 50 dollar oil prices?
No, because of years of triple-digit prices. ... You might wanna get your flat head around the concept of lag time.

Right now, you sound like a climate change denier due entirely to a snowy day in April.
08-31-2015 , 03:53 PM
Lol seems legit
08-31-2015 , 05:10 PM
Remember the jiggs playbook. Economy in a recession? GLOBAL ECONOMY CRUSHED BY OIL PRICES!!! Economy maybe going into a recession but oil prices have been low for eight months? ECONOMY CRUSHED BY OIL PRICES! Oil price goes up? PEEEEEEEEEKKKKK OIIIIILLLLLLL!!!! Oil price goes down? PEEEEEEEEEKKKK OIIIILLLLLLL!!!

Rinse and repeat for nearly a decade and you have peeeeek jiggggzzzzzz
08-31-2015 , 05:38 PM
This is the same Jiggs who screamed at me that oil prices were going higher because of peak oil and had been going higher for three years when they had been basically flat. I told Jiggs oil would be as likely to go lower as it was higher, Jiggs told me I was ******ed because peeeaaak oiiiiil was going to drive the prices higher. Now oil is at 50 and whatdo you know peeaaak oiiil.

He also specifically said "anything over $50-$60 slows global growth". So guess things are fine now that we're at $50 or w/e.

lol Jiggs, always and forever.
08-31-2015 , 05:45 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
Remember the jiggs playbook. Economy in a recession? GLOBAL ECONOMY CRUSHED BY OIL PRICES!!! Economy maybe going into a recession but oil prices have been low for eight months? ECONOMY CRUSHED BY OIL PRICES! Oil price goes up? PEEEEEEEEEKKKKK OIIIIILLLLLLL!!!! Oil price goes down? PEEEEEEEEEKKKK OIIIILLLLLLL!!!

Rinse and repeat for nearly a decade and you have peeeeek jiggggzzzzzz
Pretty sure I'm on record saying that ultimate evidence of peak oil is not the price, but the sobering data confirming lackluster production capacity going forward. Whether the short-term price is too high for consumers or too low for producers (or both), the equation is the same: Net energy is rapidly declining and all capacity growth since roughly 2008 is now produced at a loss. While there is (was) time for easy credit to maintain the industry's illusion for a while (as we've seen), the bill is coming due across the industry.

Now, you and Drool can tard up that message all you like. But your straw men will not change my stated position any more than it will change the laws of physics. I know that makes you cultists of finance blanch, but you can only rely on cherry-picked data and accounting tricks for so long as the world continues its slow, relentless march to degrowth.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 08-31-2015 at 05:56 PM.
08-31-2015 , 05:59 PM
Is it fair to say that you believe in 10 years our global economy will be smaller than it is today?
08-31-2015 , 06:00 PM
awww.... so close to the old peak... but nope, that Nov. 1970 mark will remain the peak of U.S. production. But don't worry. Perhaps your heroes can get the definition of crude oil changed again.

08-31-2015 , 06:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
Is it fair to say that you believe in 10 years our global economy will be smaller than it is today?

Lolooooool at expecting jiggs to actually answer this question
08-31-2015 , 07:08 PM
It will be smaller. If its smaller, Im right. If not, Im still right, its just not smaller because of the technicality that the global economy is smaller. Im still right. Peeaaakkkk oilllllll.
09-01-2015 , 07:40 AM
Peak Oil!

Quote:
Fuel shortage at Halifax-area gas stations
Quote:
“We can’t exactly tell [customers] when we’re going to have fuel,” said manager Bill Campbell.
http://globalnews.ca/news/2192619/fu...-gas-stations/
09-01-2015 , 07:43 AM
09-01-2015 , 07:46 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
awww.... so close to the old peak... but nope, that Nov. 1970 mark will remain the peak of U.S. production. But don't worry. Perhaps your heroes can get the definition of crude oil changed again.

And this is adorable. None of us care if the US reached peak production. What the extremely rapid rise of production shows is that oil production isn't, as you like to pretend, immune to the laws of economics. When price goes up more oil will be produced. This will ensure an orderly transition to more sustainable forms of energy in the coming decades, as the people arguing with you have been saying for the past six years.
09-01-2015 , 08:35 AM
I really enjoy how Jiggs thinks that graph helps his peak oil arguments.
09-01-2015 , 08:48 AM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
So I've been thinking about the oil price drop, which seems likely to stop US oil production growth in the intermediate future, and possibly lead to a decline in production. I know that Jiggz says this is a huge problem, but I actually think that it represents a new paradigm in production that could lead to increased price stability in the market.

Historically, oil supply has been very inelastic, which is to say that the price does not effect production very strongly. This is due to the large startup costs of a project and the relatively low marginal costs of continuing operation. A project might need $80 oil at the beginning of life to be profitable, but once it is producing the marginal breakeven point could be like $20-30, and production will decline relatively slowly, at perhaps 3-5% per year. So if this project was built when oil was at $100 and the price drops to $50 shortly after it comes on line then it will still produce the same amount of oil in its lifetime as if oil was at $100 for the entire life of the project.

So really the only way there was as much supply elasticity as there was with the traditional oil production paradigm was because of the OPEC cartel, specifically Saudi Arabia. They could cut and raise production with the dual goal of stabilizing oil prices in a sweet spot and maximizing their profits.

But the American oil boom of the last decade is quite different. As Jiggzzzzz points out, these projects have quite short lifetimes. But this is not actually a bug but a feature! The short lifetimes of these projects can provide increased supply elasticity and could help stabilize oil prices, since unprofitable projects will shut down in a few years rather than a few decades.

And I think that the Saudis recognized this, which is why they decided not to cut production. The markets expected them to do so, which is of course what led to the recent drop in oil prices. The Saudis recognized that the new oil production paradigm in USA#1 provides the global oil market with increased supply elasticity, rendering their own artificial elasticity redundant.
relevant
09-01-2015 , 03:29 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
And this is adorable. None of us care if the US reached peak production. What the extremely rapid rise of production shows is that oil production isn't, as you like to pretend, immune to the laws of economics. When price goes up more oil will be produced.
And round and round we go, where I reference global net energy decline and you guys fire back with your addiction to the Pollyanna Principle.

This passage above demonstrates with exceeding clarity how you and your ilk get this so wrong from start to finish...

When price goes up and stays up more oil might be produced, for a little while ... Provided enough of those companies who once produced oil are still in business and haven't sold off all their infrastructure after over extending on a business model that needs WTI prices even higher than they were (see post #36). They won't be.

What's "adorable" about the recent spike in that chart is that it 1) is ultimately produced at a loss; 2) was entirely enabled by unsustainable credit, and 3) represents some 90% of global production growth since conventional oil production peaked 8-10 years ago. Now that the spike has seized - as predicted - the carnage has only begun. To pretend investors will all return to the shale oil patch after this bloodbath is the fatal flaw in your empty argument.

Meanwhile, if prices DO return, you're still IGNORING the knock-on effects high oil prices have had on the macro economy, causing this deflationary spiral in the first place.

Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
This will ensure an orderly transition to more sustainable forms of energy in the coming decades, as the people arguing with you have been saying for the past six years.
LOL... yes, just where is this "orderly transition" to this point? What "sustainable forms" of energy provide transportation fuel or fertilize crops?

I'm acutely aware of the cornucpian model you drones have been arguing the past six years. It's just that it has no basis in reality.

BTW.... I never said oil production is "immune" to the dismal science in the short term. What I said was, ultimately, energy dictates to the economy because it's energy that does the actual work that enables growth. And in order for your "orderly transition" theory to work, you have to actually show an alternative energy source that can in fact DO THE WORK that hydrocarbon liquids currently provide complex societies. You've yet to accomplish that goal, which is part of the overall reason why your entire "no problem" outlook has no basis in fact.

Maybe BriantheMick can come along and save you all by trumpeting the "limitless wonders" of oil from algae. Surely technology is on to SOMEthing that will allow this "orderly transition" any time now.

Last edited by JiggsCasey; 09-01-2015 at 03:54 PM.
09-01-2015 , 03:36 PM


relevant
09-01-2015 , 03:57 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
Is it fair to say that you believe in 10 years our global economy will be smaller than it is today?
Jiggs?
09-01-2015 , 04:35 PM
What energy sources can slowly replace oil? Solar seems most likely. It's been growing exponentially for decades. But since jiggs doesn't understand exponential growth he can't see the energy revolution that is unfolding in slow motion all around him.
09-02-2015 , 05:07 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by SenorKeeed
What energy sources can slowly replace oil? Solar seems most likely. It's been growing exponentially for decades. But since jiggs doesn't understand exponential growth he can't see the energy revolution that is unfolding in slow motion all around him.
It's like you don't actually read .... Solar can't do the same work that hydrocarbon liquids provide. Try and get your flat head around that fact. Or don't, and keep parroting the same dumb talking point. Your choice.
09-02-2015 , 05:08 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by jjshabado
Jiggs?
By what metric?
09-02-2015 , 05:09 PM
Of course solar can do the same work that hydrocarbons can. The only possible exception is aircraft, but hydrogen would probably work.

Last edited by SenorKeeed; 09-02-2015 at 05:18 PM.
09-02-2015 , 05:10 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
By what metric?

Translation: as long as I get to make up my own numbers there won't be growth. Those lying Jew economists will obviously come up with their own fantastical definition of "growth"
09-02-2015 , 05:17 PM
Quote:
Originally Posted by JiggsCasey
By what metric?
Inflation adjusted GDP? What metric do you like?

Not some energy based metric that totally discounts alternative fuels or more efficient use of energy.

      
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