The race isn't within 1%. It's been over for a while, the Comey letter didn't even more the needle that much. The reversal wasn't even some missed opportunity

The fundamentals of the race haven't changed at all. As much as it pains me to say this, Trump will most likely win the election.

Assuming you are saying this in favor of Clinton, it's interesting that I said the same in the other direction.

We shall know soon and this will all be over.

Not if you factor in the Latino voters who will turn out in droves to support Donald Trump thanks to Hillary's ties to satanic cults.

Sure, although I think the USC method of weighting by enthusiasm is likely to exaggerate short-term movement. Also, I think fly's point is that, compared to everyone else, USC has always had an unrealistically high appraisal of Trump's chances with Hispanics, which may very easily have something to do with the static composition of their panel. Both of the above are significant caveats to relying on that one poll to gauge Hispanics reactions to this story. Plus, you may as well wait for the election at this point.

this would have been brilliant. and donate all proceeds to the vets. air it Tuesdays 8pm on Fox

The analysis in alpha is loltastic. They throw out the information they dislike.

Early voting means nothing. Agree.

The FBI announcement won't matter. The damage is done.

Dog you make this **** too easy

Lol @ taking polling data as fact. Gallup isn't doing the goddamn election this year. Go look up why.

That's exactly what I was thinking. This whole site is dedicated to gambling.

You have made a bet you feel is +ev. Shockingly, someone else disagrees and put up money. Let's see who wins!

I'll be happy when this whole ****show is over.

Feel free to let me know the next time your in the city. Maybe Ill stop by where ever it is that your visiting.

You'll pay happy to pay out your losing bets? Good man.

Yes. I've said this many times.

I've debated whether or not I should post this, but I decided to. **** it. I made my bed.

My final thoughts on the election : instinct is telling me Trump is going to win. I just can’t shake this feeling, and every single alarm bell I have is going off in my head as loud as possible. The average of polls are in Clinton’s favor, all liberal media is saying “lol, Trump”, almost every single person in these forums are acting like they already saw the results and I’m the only one who didn’t get the memo. It should be so easy for me to just nod my head and say “yeah, Clinton has this in the bag”, yet this feeling just won’t go away.

A friend of mine asked me how I’m doing betting last week and I said I need to hit a very difficult trifecta that I didn’t want to win because I was rooting for the other side in each piece. He asked me what I bet, so I told him The Cowboys to cover against the Eagles (Cowboys were -5), the Cubs to win the World Series, and Trump winning the presidency. It was beginning of the 4th quarter in the Eagles game (the score was 23-13) and he replied, “don’t worry, you have no shot that any of those things happen, much less all three.” The Cowboys somehow came back and covered in miraculous fashion and the Cubs somehow won three games in a row after being down 3-1. Now I can’t stop thinking about this last piece.

Maybe I’m seeing things that aren’t there, maybe I just keep clicking on the wrong articles and putting together the wrong pieces of information to come to a conclusion that just can’t happen. Maybe I’m just wrong thinking that Brexit happened and he actually could win, or that a person at work mentioned they said all the same things about Reagan that they are saying about Trump, or that Bill Maher said the same thing, that people laughed at Reagan when he ran, yet he somehow won. Maybe this late Trump surge is an anomaly. Maybe Nate Silver’s adjustment is just him simply hedging enough that if he’s incorrect he can talk his way out of it and not lose too much credibility. Maybe Clinton just isn’t as awful as I think she is. Maybe my sneaking suspicion that he wins Pennsylvania, something that hasn’t happened since 1988, is just heartburn. Maybe it was when my wife told me she thinks Clinton is going to win, and I’ve been fading her for years and won every time, is just a coincidence. Has to be just a dumb ass coincidence, right?

The good thing is that many unlikely things stand in the way from Trump winning. He’d have to almost run the table in the toss-ups, and he still has to flip a blue state. That’s just very hard to do and highly unlikely. He’d also have to get a relatively low turnout across multiple Democrat demographics, get a majority of independents to break for him while he also gets a massive showing from Republicans to propel him to victory, all of which are also unlikely. The stars have to line up for him to pull this out of his ass. Right?

My suspicion is that Trump has a better chance at a landslide victory than Clinton does. But that is just total insanity. With all this being said, my final prediction is Trump, 52-47.
Thank God we will know very soon so I can finally stop thinking about this ****ing election because it’s driving me ****ing crazy.

It would be highly unlikely for anyone to think Trump is going to win at this point while not wanting him to win. Without natural "homer" bias that can affect normal people, someone would pretty much have to have a brain disorder to see Trump winning.


Oh hi Wil.

This is nonsensical, as we've discussed the idea quite a bit. Betting something and rooting for something are two very different things. Anyone who bets sports knows this. It's trivially easy to understand, yet here we are.

You have the polls off by nine points? You're out your damn mind

You very well may be right. Trust me, I know how it sounded when I wrote it, that's why I was so reluctant to say it.

Just end this ****ing election already. Jesus.

I don't see a landslide possibility for Trump. Clinton maybe, but only if the definition of landslide is very liberal. There will nothing like Reagan in 1984 or Roosevelt in 1936.

It would pretty much be impossible for any of the commonly-stated definitions of a political "landslide" to occur; I've most often seen a 10pt difference as the barometer, with one other listing online stating 15pts being needed to qualify. I don't think either candidate can come near either figure (for Trump to win by 15 in this particular election where GJ and JS are going to get a combined 5% of the vote, he'd have to beat her 55%-40%, which clearly can't happen; even Dukakis got > 45%)

As far as the Electoral College, I don't think that'll happen on either end, and it's very hard given today's political landscape and demographics for the Democrats to ever have one, given that they start with something like 217 EV's when you factor in the locked-blue states.

Wil, you think 3rd party candidates combined are only getting 1%? Granted I do not think they will do as well as they have polled, but GJ/JS did manage 1.35% in '12.

The only way Trump can win given the polling is if there's a completely enormous amount of Shy Tory in effect.

LBJ in 64 got over 60% of the popular vote. Barry Goldwater was a far right wing hawk who was portrayed as someone who was unstable, couldn't be trusted with nukes. Sound familiar?

Yes, "landslide" is hard to define. An event like the 1980 election just can't happen today, in my opinion.

There are two possibilities : that there truly is a shy Tory effect, or that polling is off. There is just such a huge disparity in the polling outliers that I think it's possible something is fundamentally wrong. A 13 point disparity just doesn't make sense to me, but as I've always said I'm no expert in polling. Just reading Nate silvers methods and his adjustments drive me nuts.

Cant wait til tomorrow so this can finally be over.

Wow. They just went from Springsteen to Chelsea to Bill to Michelle to Barack and now Hillary. They brought out the whole crew.

Wil you've been weighed you've been measured and you've been found wanting with whatever the **** that was above. Chase your parlay but lying to yourself for the sake of lying to yourself?